Part I

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=== Roto, Accountability, and Predictive Validity ===

There aren't any charts keeping track of bloggers' predictions on which pitcher will jell.   Nobody goes back and says, "How many Lincecums did this guy have and how many Schmidts did that guy have?"

We're not in the realm of the sabermetric when we predict Edwin Jackson's future.  Nobody's bringing a convincing set of comps, running a regression, and saying, "here's Jackson's chance to sustain his progress."

If Brandon Morrow goes out in 2010 and rips off 25 straight quality starts to open the year, running a 2+ ERA into September -- nobody will have a convincing set of comps for his 2011 either.

It's not math leading us to an inescapable conclusion.  We are squarely in the realm of human intuition here.

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There is one type of blogger who accepts accountability for his guessing on young pitchers:  the roto owner.   In rotisserie, you forecast performances and then you are returned a metric on the quality of your guessing.

There are guys whose guesses on Edwin Jackson I would be very interested to hear.  It is that group of people who consistently win roto championships.

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Mikey Jay?  I'd love to hear what he has to say about Edwin Jackson.  He -- not Popular Blogger X -- has proven that he guesses well on the Jacksons of the world.

Justin?  Absolutely.  Inside Pitch?  Sure.   Cool Papa Bell, Taro, and others who rose to the top locally?  Well, to be fair, I haven't played with Cool Papa for 10 years.   But so far I have a very good impression of his judgment.

Cool Papa, Taro, or any other roto champ wants to chime in the comments and say "I win all the time and here's where I am on Jackson and Brandon Morrow," then yeah.  You bet.

What's the big deal about roto?  Nothing.  Except that these are the only guys who go back and scientifically measure their predictions after-the-fact.  A rotisserie standings chart, at the end of the year, is extremely scientific.  It's not perfect, but it's a valid form of metric on predictive validity.

Roto isn't the end of the discussion.  But you have some better way to measure folks' claims to predict pitchers well?

Like Jack says, if we're sayin somethin that aint' true, do somethin about it.  Show up and play Dr. D & co. at fantasy baseball next spring.  Show everybody that you can pick pitchers, dude.   Draft Edwin Jackson in the 11th round and see how the year goes for yer.

Any takers?  :- )

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=== Verdict Dept. ===

You don't need to limit yourself to the locals.   You can check Shandler, Labadini, Olkin, Zwilling, Vogel, all those guys.

We all know what the decorated forecasters are going to say about Edwin Jackson 2010 before they even publish.

Look them up when they release.  They'll all say the same thing.

Exciting young talent, had the breakthrough we'd been waiting for, fatigue in 2H not much concern.  Needs followup to join elite, would like to see more.  Don't go over $20, but don't let him slide in your league.

Dr. D happens to have a track record in fantasy baseball, too.  His own official roto prediction?  The same as above.  But then, that's no special expertise on my part.  It's pretty much the same thing you'll see everywhere.

Not meaning to be snooty, but Jackson isn't a tough call for a roto owner.  He's an electric arm who just showed us what we want to see.   He's not Roy Halladay, but he is mucho draftable.

Jack Zduriencik is, if the rumors be on track, valuing Jackson as a rotisserie champ would.

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Part III