Seattle Sports Insider

POTD Miguel Olivo - TWO THUMBS WAY UP

Posted by

12/9/10

Q. What's the case against Miguel Olivo?

A. The case against Olivo is the proverbial "I just yakked in my coffee cup ..." humor. For seven colors of the rainbow on this theme, see our homeys at MC.

Yo' GM is so stupid that...

He got fired from the M&M factory for throwing out the W's
He put a quarter in the parking meter at Royal Brougham and lost a day waiting for the gumball
When a Fangraphs editor asked him to "find X," he circled it with a red pen ... on his monitor
He saw a picture of TopCat wearing a dynamite vest, but refused to toss a match
He just ralphed $7M for a catcher who bats .091 at Safeco

Y'know Dr. D loves yer, but yer whiffed on this one like Miguel Olivo whalin' at a 97 fastball.

Q. What's the case for Miguel Olivo?

A. That he's a $10M catcher that we're going to pay $3M.

Q. Miguel Olivo. A ten million dollar catcher. Now we know thou hast a demon.

A. I have not a demon, but I honor fangraphs, and ye do dishonor me.

Sung to the mellow tones of Slash's second riff on Sweet Child, here are Olivo's last three years' worth of values per Fangraphs:

2010: $12,900,000 (read it and weep, my friend. Jack did)
2009: $9,000,000
2008: $4,800,000

Q. Under what conceivable school of creative accounting / tax evasion could Miguel Olivo possibly have a plus offensive value?

A. Miguel Olivo is a league-average hitter and a league-excellent fielder, much like Franklin Gutierrez is a league-average hitter and a league-excellent fielder. It used to be (ca. 2009) that this kind of player was the Ultimate Seattle Blog-O-Sphere Ballplayer.

See that? Put Guti in camouflage and your instinctive reaction, before you remember your training, is to hurl :- )

Q. Miguel Olivo is a league-average hitter?

A. League-mediocre, ya. He has improved. His last three years, his OPS+ is 96. And no, that's not because of Colorado.

Miguel was always an 85 hitter, and at age 29 he jelled, typically for a catcher. He had a solid 90, and at age 30 he had a 103 in Kansas City.

Last year, at age 31, he made it three years running, with a 92 OPS+.

Comments

Doc...dig a little deeper into the splits here.

2006 was Olivo's gelling year...it looks like to me anyway. Since that year, he's got a 90 or so OPS+. But:
2010 away OPS - .598 (!)
2010 OPS vs. power pitching: .415 (!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!)
2010 vs. teams above .500 (I hand calculated this one): 669
HR/Fly the last four years: 12+, 12+, 21+ (!), 12+ (which of these things is not like the other?)
Career LD% - 17.5
Career FB% - 38.9
Career pull % (OK...there's no number for this one...but it's gotta be like...) - 99.4%
This is NOT a player that stands any chance at all of hitting well at Safeco, Doc.
If Miguel Olivo hits .230 in 2011, I'll be shocked.

Strange Bedfellows

Man, I'm disagreeing with Doc and agreeing with Matt....all on the same point.
1st time for everything, I guess.
If he hit .228, Matt, and hit 18 taters it would be just fine. He won't.
He's a good defender. He nails, across his career, 35% or would be base thiefs....That's a nice percentage. But I dislike the cost vs. the little upgrade over Josh Bard, for example. Spending $3M to throw out 10% more basestealers seems a poor investment, if yu have limited resources to invest.
Another concern is that we spent $5M plus, basically our FA wad, and didn't get a fifth starter.
I have no concern about Olivo's previous performance in Safeco...it was years ago. I just dislike the signing based on what we can expect to get for our money.
I hope I'm wrong. If he hits .230+, with 15+ taters and is an "A" defender, then it may be worth the investment.
but .220 with 10 homers and a "B" defender is Josh Bard. He was free.
moe