Q.  So what's his problem?  Why's he getting hit in college?

A.  We turned on the Arizona State game, fully expecting to see nothing more than a BABIP problem and fickle fan-scouts.  We expected to see a #1 overall pitcher who was camouflaged by this or that, much like Michael Pineda in early March.

Dr. D saw the first two pitches and his jaw dropped in shock.  He saw two more and he ran off screaming into the night.

.

Q.  More hyperbole about the problems Cole has?

A.  Gerrit Cole has many problems with his delivery - his knee is very bent "at the top" so he defeats his own purpose - he doesn't ever stand tall or center himself.  His head rips violently off to the left by 18 inches to pull his shoulders around the corner.  He gets little drive from his lower half.  His back elbow is quite high.  He decelerates against a stiff front knee -- see the 1:50 mark in this vid.  A bunch of stuff.

But the murderous flaw is one that he might not be able to fix.  

He kicks his knee up... he lazily splays his front foot out a bit, both hands low as if hushing the crowd, and then beginning the backstroke WHOOOOOOOM!  HE STARTS HIS THROUGHSTROKE ACCELERATION OFF HIS RIGHT HIP!

You have never seen a PGA golfer yank his backswing real fast, and if you live to be 100, you never will.  Not even one.  Ever!

Among the many reasons why:  if you are accelerating before the top, you never go back to the same place at the top.  So you never start the downswing from the same place, so your clubhead never goes to the same place.

Gerrit Cole's motion is exactly analogous to a golfer who executes his backswing as fast as he can.

.

Q.  And the lack of command in the zone is why he gets hit?  Even at 98 mph?

A.  Exactly.  When Cole occasionally throws that heater to a decent location, he detonates the hitter every single time.  His normal FB, when on the black, is a garbage swing.  

But he doesn't locate.  Not often.

He throws the heater to who knows where, and the hitters just arm-swing and square up the perfectly-centered ones.  These are college hitters.  What is a pro going to do?

.

Q.  Is the fastball really that good?

A.  It's Nolan Ryan good.

He is reliably 94-101, and even at 98 he looks every inch of Nolan Ryan or Randy Johnson.  The ball is an eyeblink on the screen, it seems to accelerate into the catcher's mitt, and WHAM it registers on seismo gear when it connects with the hapless catcher's mitt.

I never saw Nolan Ryan scream a fastball in with more authority than Gerrit Cole does.  Cole throws harder than Pineda, with more life, with more authority.

.

Q.  Secondary stuff?

A.  Some sliders were flat, but when he got them down and spun them right, they came in hard and fell off the table, like little Felix allen wrenches coming at you.

His change can be interesting when it's kept down.

***

See, you can absolutely understand the earlier "#1 overall" hype - it wasn't hype.  When Cole is locating that fastball, and coming back with a dry spitball for a slider, he looks like the young Bartolo Colon, add a breaking pitch.

You can see Cole, when everything's right, looking like he'd be the best pitcher in the bigs tomorrow.

But don't you find it strange that flaws like Cole's --- > go by the audience that he has?  The whole baseball world has had its Hubble Telescope on him.

Nobody could pitch the way Cole has tried to.  You can't accelerate the baseball before you start forward.  Poor kid.

.

Q.  Makeup?

A.  In tempo, in facial expression and in body language, he looks panicked out there.

You could have a Brandon Morrow temperament issue here.  If competing for a draft slot gets to him, what happens next level?

.

Q.  Can he be fixed?

A.  In theory, sure.  You completely overhaul his delivery, he's still going to have that right arm attached...

With a pro pitching motion, who knows what command he has.  After all, he's throwing strikes with a high school pitching motion.

Bring him in, teach him tempo, get him to "pause at the top" like Bedard or Felix, get him driving down the centerline, and wow.  But what do you think the chances are of that?

***

In 2009, most videos of Cole show a much less pronounced backswing-rip.  Early this year, it's half-and-half.  Against Arizona State, he did it every single pitch.

It's probably shrillness of mind (panic before the draft) that amplifies the hectic stroke, as in golf.  So there's hope.

.

Q.  MLB comparisons?

A.  Right now, Michael Pineda -- if Pineda had David Aardsma's command and a very erratic slider.  I guess Cole would have to aspire to be Edwin Jackson.

***

If Cole were to somehow rework his mechanics -- Justin Verlander.  Maybe even the Strasburg comps wouldn't be too far out of line.  The kid has an arm.

Like G-Money have been telling us, you've got the Ultimate Thrower and the Ultimate Pitcher in the same draft.  What do you *really* believe in?

.

Q.  If the M's draft him?

A.  Then let's hope that they got this project covered.

.

Cheerio,

Jeff