Q: What do you do with Jeff Clement? You've got absolute embargoes going on at 1B and DH island.
A:
You say you'll change the constitution
Well, you know
We all want to change your head
You tell me it's the institution
Well, you know
You better freeeeeeeee your mind insteeee--heeaaaaaad
But if you go carrying pictures of chairman Mao
You ain't going to make it with anyone anyhow
Don't you know it's gonna be all right
all right, all right
What do you do with Jeff Clement, when you feel he's ready to come up to the big leagues for good? You powerflush your paradigm paralysis, and you play Junior in left.
*Cyber-Seattle* pravda'ed us into thinking that you can't let Ken Griffey Jr. anywhere near the outfield. Through sheer ferocity, cyber-Seattle cowed everybody into scared silence on the issue of Junior playing defense. I haven't read a word, anywhere, not one, about this completely obvious solution.
I got news for you. Junior played 123 games in the outfield last year. He played 133 the year before that.
The White Sox come armed with much, much better data than ANYbody in cyber-Seattle, and they deliberately traded for Ken Griffey Jr. to play CENTER field for them.
.... I think with Raul's defensive numbers this year ....
2007: -23
2008: -10
2009: +5 (so far)
... it will be easier to "get" the problem with dogmatic applications of defensive measurements.
We don't get to talk as if UZR gives the "correct" valuation of a player, and you don't get to argue that a Pat Gillick who disagrees, is making an error. You have to acknowledge that dissension is reasonable, when it comes to defensive evaluations.
Very possibly, the Mariners DO think that Griffey's a detriment on defense (seeing as they yanked his backside out of the OF in a real hurry). ... But! That little defensive variable, at ONE glove position, doesn't mean enough to blockade your franchise #3 pick.
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IF you think Jeff Clement has a working strategy for dealing with inside pitches, and you think he's ready to get up here .... you DH Clement and play Junior in left. Of course, you still mix-and-match the rotation. Clement gets some games at catcher, and a few games at 1B, and of course Junior gets some games off.
Wlad gets some games in center field. Endy Chavez, with a .233 OBP in May, plays left out. His first 50 AB's never did transcend his previous 2,300 AB's, and now he's just a banjo hitter trying to survive Safeco Field. You don't hold up Jeff Clement for five minutes because of Endy Chavez.
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Ken Griffey Jr., as expected, has been totally healthy at DH. Just like Edgar was. Suppose that Junior hurt himself playing LF? Well, then, the logjam's solved. I know, that's cold, even for Dr. D. :- )
The point is, everybody's saying you can't get Jeff Clement into the lineup. Sure you can. You just chuck your paradigms and absolutes and think outside the box a little bit.
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Supposing Griffey's knee won't ALLOW him to play the outfield, then you gear Clement up to catch, and you give him some of Junior's AB's at DH, and maybe you play Branyan/Clement/whoever a few games in LF, as the Yankees did with Berra and Howard.
Clement can play 50% of the time in Seattle and still learn how to hit John Lackey, a whale of a lot better than he can learn to hit Lackey from the batter's box at Cheney. We've been over this. You play a game or two, and then you rest and consolidate and watch video, and then you play another game or two. That's much better than staying in AAA.
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Jeff Clement is the FUTURE of this ballclub. He HAS to come through -- or the Mariners need to die trying to make him come through. He could hit 400 homers in Safeco, and that's the equivalent of 3,800 homers in Texas. Clement's not a guy you blow off because you didn't like his first run at it. You're married to him.
When he is ready, you push other guys out of his way to get him in there.
.
.
Q. How about David Aardsma's blown save?
A. It's not very fair to bust the guy's chops considering that (1) we gratefully accepted his first 7 saves, (2) his peripherals are getting a little better, and (3) he'd have won that game if Vlad's bloop had found leather.
But a picture's worth 1,000 words. If Aardsma ever got the real anointing to The Hot Seat, you'd see a bunch of games like Sunday's. He starts throwing balls and he can't self-correct.
You've battled for three hours, and you are up by TWO runs, even THREE runs, and the closer fires 19 balls in 25 pitches -- and will keep doing so. Name me a big-league team that lives with that? Uh-huh.
It's fine to blow saves. It's not fine to fill a garden sprinkle can with kerosene, hold it over your head on the mound, and then strike a safety match against your zipper.
.................
I'm not saying I'd remove Aardsma tomorrow. He'd still close, for a while, on my team. But I'm quietly, and hectically, seeking a real closer.
My $0.02,
Dr D
Clement cannot catch. At all. And Griffey won't stay healthy in the outfield. Both of your plans have been deemed unfeasable than the Mariners.
Oh and...I don't see Clement as having a future here anyway...trade bait, yes. Future DH? Nada.
That was supposed to say "deemed unfeasable BY the Mariners..."
Last I read, a couple days ago, is that they *are* grooming him to catch in the next month or so. Did that change?
As mentioned, it's possible that the Mariners don't like the idea of Griffey in LF. As to "deemed unfeasible," Griffey playing the outfield is certainly not "unfeasible" if we look the word "unfeasible" up in the dictionary. :- ) At most, it's against the Mariners' preferences.
The White Sox demonstrated that is feasible for Ken Griffey to play CENTER field. It's obviously feasible for Griffey, or Manny, or Adam Dunn, to play left, or Jamie Burke to play 1B for that matter.
If your point is that it is possible that the Mariners might not consider such a solution, I agree that it is possible that they might decide that. My article isn't an argument to them. It's just my own analysis as to what would be best for the M's.
Good stuff Matty.
You mentioned everyone in the Griffey in LF scenario, except who you'd drop from the roster. As it exists, after the 9 starters, there are 4 bench guys:
CA - Quiroz - (if Clement cannot catch, Quiroz goes nowhere)
IF - Cedeno - (only backup for the entire IF)
OF - Wlad - (hitting worse than Endy of late)
DH - Sweeney - (was he mentioned above?)
I've gotta believe that you'd be more likely to axe Sweeney than Endy, as Sweeney barely brings a bat - and no glove. Endy, at the very least, brings a glove.
Honestly, my picture of why Griffey is not playing LF, is the SAME reason that Clement was bypassed for Quiroz. Playing the field was too hard on Griffey's knees during ST.
Regardless of what he did last year or the year before, Griffey IS a year older. If standing for 3 hours in the sun is going to render him inactive for the next game, then all you've really done is swapped out a platoon at DH for a defensive situation no different, (Sweeney ain't playing anywhere regularly and neither is Clement any time soon).
I personally NEVER got the sense it was Griffey's defense that was at issue, it is his health. The club was already put together with a shaky bench in that the DH platoon are BOTH guys with major health issues. Has everyone forgotten the insanity that ensued when Cedeno got a muscle tweak for a few days?
Clement is not down because they don't want him. He's in AAA because he's not healthy enough to fill the logical roster spot for him, (catcher). But, I REALLY like the fact he's DHing in AAA, and doing a swell job -- because his major league DH numbers were beyond dreadful. They are letting him LEARN to DH - in a safe environment - and also removing any pressure to get healthy quick.
The previous regime was miserably awful at developing talent -- the first 2-week hot streak, and a kid was in the majors. And when he flopped he was sent down. The fact that the old paradigm is gone is a MAJOR plus in my mind. Considering the development track in Milwaukee, I'm perfectly will to cede to Captain Jack's sense of proper timing for prospect development.
Personally, I think Clement is being groomed for the LH side of a DH platoon for 2009, and may well get to be backup catcher, too. But, it's only June 1st. That gives the club two months to look at possible deals that do NOT revolve around dumping guys for no gain.
If you DO view Clement as a DH primary and CA secondary, then it just MIGHT be wise to let him get healthy enough to get used to the flopping back and forth between the two positions while still in the minors -- instead of doing what Bavasi did, and try to force the kid to adapt to 437 different new dynamics simultaneously.
Trade buzz about Bedard to Phillies is very mainstream right now, and most of it seems to include Jason Donald as part of the return.
Churchill says he's a Mark DeRosa type who won't stick at SS but could hover around the .800 OPS mark at 2b.
In his first 195 PA at AAA at age 25 he's showing none of the power or patience he showed at lower levels.
Curious if you have a take.
Griffey had knee surgery and proved during ST that he cannot play the outfield without his knees hurting him. And last I read, Clement was a full time DH because it was hurting HIM too much to play the field.
Great article Doc.
At this point and time doesn't the new regime just say Clement is our DH of the future and backup catcher. He's tailored made for the park. It's a disappointment that he will probably never be a full time catcher but Jack Z isn't tied to him being one.
Sandy I'd probably just drop Denny Stark. The roster is going to have so much turmoil in the coming weeks that everything will pretty chaotic anyway, so just go with one less pitcher. After all clears out then you can go back to the 12th pitcher (although I'm rarely a fan of that many pitchers).
Griffey should absolutely play the outfield. He is showing not to be a great DH. Chavez has no future with the team, so sit him (use him as a defensive substitution), trade him or release him.
My first priority would be to re-sign Bedard and if that failed (probably) then trade him. But having a Bedard and Felix for the next 3 years will make the M's a dangerous team every year if things fall into place.
Get Morrow down to the minors and stretch him out. He shouldn't have a choice in this after he admitted that the illness didn't have anything to do with staying in the bullpen. He is not a great reliever. Some pitchers just need more time to get comfortable in a game, especially power pitchers.
When the time is right trade Aardsma. His value is high and his future is cloudy.
One thing I didn't think to mention in my initial post.
At the end of May:
Endy Chavez OPS = .701
Ken Griffey OPS = .688
By every advanced metric out there, in 2009, Endy Chavez is BETTER at the plate than Griffey. OPS, wRC, wRAA, wOBA. The difference is negligible. But, the ultimate truth is that this is not the Griffey of the 20th century. While he brings a lot of good things to this club, at this point in his career, he's not an offensive upgrade to Endy.
If you REALLY want to break the stuck in cement mindset, and you REALLY want Clement up - then you cut Griffey. (But that's a PR nightmare that nobody wants to actually consider. But, realistically, it makes TONS more sense than tossing aside the guy with the identical bat that plays ++ defense, over the guy that you fully expect/hope to retire at the end of the season.
Has nobody here looked at how bad Griffey has been in the outfield for the better part of the decade? Or how bad his bat has been so far this year? Really, Griffey to the outfield is not the solution. We need to trade Jose Lopez and get a lefty or switch hitter at 2b. Yuni is probably going too, but for organizational pitching depth (depth, not talent). Griffey probably has about a month before they send him to the 60 day DL if he continues performing at the level he is. If/when that happens Clement comes up and fills his slot at DH, and significantly outperforms Griffey. By that time Bedard will be gone, so we will probably see a bunch of other changes, as the win now perspective goes out the window.
Also, Wlad is trade bait, we need him to perform. He can't perform with no AB. Endy is also trade bait. Saunders should be able to come in and replace both offensively part way through the year, and he is in between the two defensively. We also may see Ackley up in September (provided we draft him). That would give us a net gain of 1 lefty bat, which means that we need the aforementioned Lopez replacement.
Utterly and completely annihilate it.
Unless Griffey quits on his own and takes a job as a roving hitting instructor with the team, he's not going anywhere.
I'm personally not a fan of McDonald.
Righty bat with gap power and minimal D at 2B. His eye ratios aren't very good and hes old for a prospect. I think I'd rather ride with Jose Lopez than this guy.
We need a PURE SS with GG type D. Alcides Escobar is a guy who probably isn't going to do much more than a .280/.330/.380 offensively, but gives you an elite glove and PLUS speed. Hes fits a much bigger need.
Remember when we thought Yuni gave you the golden glove?
Never trade for a crap-box hitter until you *KNOW* that he's a gold glove fielder...and you can never know that for sure in the minor leagues.
I NEVER saw Betancourt as a GG caliber guy. Terrible IQ player from Day One in all areas of the game. Bad positioning on defense (only now are people starting to mention this), terrible fundamentals, horrible baserunning instincts, and definetly not a thinker at the plate. Showed a general lack of focus in all areas of his game.
He was hyped, but never did I buy into it. Hes the poster boy for picking an athlete over a ball-player. I've been on the "trade Betancourt while his value is high" bandwagon from Day One. Of course hes regressed since then, but he was never what he was hyped to be.
I've never seen Escobar play so its possible hes overhyped like Betancourt, but I doubt it. Most scouts grade Yunel Escobar as a better defender than even Elvis Andrus. I'm pretty sure they wouldn't be saying those type of things if he was fundamentally flawed like Betancourt was.
I'm just saying I'd MUCH prefer Escobar to McDonald. We don't need a less talented Jose Lopez, we need a true SS.
I agree we need a highly skilled defensive SS on our infield...King Felix agrees too. :) But we need a defensively gifted shortstop who can hit too. A true shortstop needs to be a 90 OPS+ bat as well as being a great fielder (see: Smith, Ozzie vs. Everett, Adam for job security comparison).
And Escobar doesn't have enough of a bat IMHO.
But maybe he is better than I currently give him credit for offensively...I'm just tried of contact hitters who can't take a walk...I want a SS who is intelligent in the field and at the plate even if he has zero power...please let him be an on-base machine.
Are we talking Yunel?
He walked 59 times in 2008, and has an isolated BB of .70, and a career OPS of .800 after 272 games, (which is a 110 OPS+). So, I'm thinking there may be some confusion here, since Yunel was mentioned specifically, but I don't think can seriously be questioned from an offensive perspective.
You said Alcides in your first post...not Yunel. I was fighting you on the idea of going after Alcides Escobar...the Milwaukee prospect with the career OPS of .700 in the minors? That's who I thought you were talking about.
Yunel Escobar I'd LOVE to have although I don't think he's the defensive genius you portray Alcides to be. UZR has him as being basically average at short.
For those of you who may have missed it...Beltre has finally caught fire. This was one of his worst slumps ever...and to be sure, some of it was caused by Safeco...but I think Beltre is going to prove to be a little more resiliant than Sexson was.
Baker drills into the stats and finds that Adam Jones and F-Gut might be a wash.
Jones has flukish hitting stats and suddenly Raul-esque defensive numbers. Hmmm.
http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/marinersblog/index.html
Bedard says he loves Seattle and would be happy to re-sign.
http://www.mynorthwest.com/?nid=421
(podcast: about 5:15 till the end)
My eyes say Jones is a plus defender, so I tend to doubt UZR.
And Baker swung and missed rather badly when he started talking about HR/Fly. Gutierrez' 6.9% HR/Fly is NORMAL for righty flyball hitter at Safeco, and Jones' 22% figure might be a tough higher than you can realistically expect, but normal at Camden Yards would be 13-14% and Jones is not a normal power hitter...he's much better than normal.
That said, I do think Gutz has more to offer on offense - his approach at the plate remains very solid and he has shown improvement over previous levels in the skill metrics...and I do expect Jones' BABIP to drop some.
Gutierrez BTN:
BB% career: 6.8
BB% 2009: 10.4
LD% career: 18.1%
LD% 2009: 22.2%
P/PA career: 4.01
P/PA 2009: 4.00
O-Swing Career: 23.9
O-Swing 2009: 21.5
O-Contact Career: 55.5 (ew!)
O-Contact 2009: 69.1 (normal!)
Sw% Career: 42.5
Sw% 2009: 38.0 (looks like the walks increased because he decided to swing less)
Zone% Career: 52.4 (about average)
Zone% 2009: 49.7 (this has been trending down...they're getting increasingly afraid to throw him strikes)
The counter point might be that he's seeing more fastballs this year (easier to hit those when they're out of the zone), and that won't continue if he gets hot.
Visually...he looks like a hitter who's learning to be more selective and still maintaining his ability to hit mistakes early in counts. I really feel like he's going to improve with the bat despite Safeco's deleterious effects. To me...he's a CF you can win your next pennant with.