Okay, the quote was "be the Ball, Danny", but it's always fun to invoke Caddyshack, just for the rush of great lines it invokes in my memory.
I've been a Braves fan since 1971, (when I was cutting the grass for the next door neighbor and she showed me a baseball she had that was signed by the entire '69 Braves team, including Hank Aaron -- that was enough to begin my lifelong love affair with Atlanta).
But, this means that I got to suffer through almost two full decades of ineptness. For the 70s and most of the 80s, the Braves were a franchise that believed in the HR. Aaron was the face of the franchise for 20 years, and they just loved to go and find shadow clones of Hammerin' Hank. As I think about it, I think this trait can OFTEN be found in baseball. My view of the Ms since just after 2001 is that they became Ichiro's team, and the franchise attempted to draft and stock the lineup with Ichiro clones. (Except there isn't actually such a thing on the planet).
But, as the 80s were winding down, the club changed direction. They moved their focus from hitting to pitching and defense. They developed Glavine and Avery, traded for the prospect Smoltz, and then signed Maddux out of FA. (Missed by many fans is the fact that Maddux wasn't there for the first TWO division titles during Atlanta's famous post-season streak).
Glavine, Avery, Smoltz were the hosses for those first two division titles. Ron Gant and David Justice were the offense. But, the club wasn't satisfied with those early results. They upgraded CF defense, (Otis Nixon, Deion Sanders, Marquis Grissom, Kenny Lofton) bridged the gap in CF until Andruw came along).
What gets lost in time is that Chipper didn't arrive until 1995, (after 3 titles).
Andruw didn't arrive until 1998, (6 years after the streak began)
But, the club built itself around 3 ace pitchers, and CONSTANTLY tweaked the lineup to improve the up-the-middle defense. Blauser lost time to Rafeal Belliard at short -- and it was NOT because of Belliard's hitting prowess). The recipe was simple enough. Great SPs -- fantastic up-the-middle defense -- and plug in offense as you can find it at the corners.
Oakland copied the formula during most of their successful run under Beane.
Seattle has the perfect park to use the same blueprint. They already have two great pitchers on the roster, (Felix and Bedard), though Felix is still raw and learning. Z went out to get a stellar glove for CF, and seems to have a solid guy that could patrol CF in Safeco for 8 years or so.
I know many hoped Morrow would be the #3 -- but evidence suggests his head is unlikely to ever allow him to join that elite group. This is not to say that it'll never happen, just that the odds are dropping fast.
I could easily imagine Carp at 1st, Ackley in LF as the offensive forces for this club for the next decade. Which means, all the club would need to complete the Atlanta formula would be another ace pitcher and to shore up its middle infield. That "all" may not be easy - but it's doable. But, if we look at the age lines for players as tending to run out at age 36 -- F-Gut, Carp, Ackley, Felix, Bedard could carry the team through 2015.
If ANY of the young catchers works out, (Clement, Johnson, Moore), that's another long-term slot filled.
The tricky part is getting the Big 3 aces to head the rotation. Even the big money clubs often struggle in this regard. The Mets have been acquiring Hall of Fame pitchers for the past 5 years, (Glavine, Pedro, Santana), but haven't DEVELOPED any. So, these guys are old when they arrive - prone to injury - and as a group, have delivered erratic results.
Getting the 29-year-old HoF SPs that can lead a team for 6-10 years, (depending on health), is no trivial matter. The Yankees have sunk boatloads of money into attempting to assemble a big 3 off the FA market. Sabathia is the only pickup under age 32. It's Chamberlain, at age 23, that points to good possibilities for the future.
Pettitte has been talking retirement for a couple of years already, and is 37. Burnett is only 32, so CC, Burnett and Joba could be a legit big 3 for another 4-5 years.
Seattle gave up a bunch to get Bedard into town. If he is willing to stick around, the club could easily have two pillars for a LONG run of success. But, like Atlanta, they need to continue to work for more. Atlanta didn't settle for a big 3 and stop looking. The original big 3 were: Glavine, Smoltz and Avery. They tried to make it a big 4 with Maddux, and Avery got hurt and folded. That's baseball.
If the Ms can flip Branyan (for instance) for a Jurrjens or Wainwright, they could potentially get there very quickly. Or maybe they can pick up a change-of-scenery failed spec on the FA market for cheap, (somebody like Snell, for instance).
For a wealthy (and impatient) organization, I think Z has to get some kind of immediate payoff for the losses suffered with the Bedard trade. The draft choices if he walks won't be near enough. That leaves either trading him before the deadline, (and it would have to be a SUPER sweet deal), or extending him. Personally, I think the extension is the best route.
Personally, I think Pedro is a better comp for Bedard than Unit. He's got fragility issues, but the same type of dominant stuff, backed up by some natural gifts in understanding the ART of pitching. So, even if/when his stuff isn't as great, Bedard is the type of guy that I believe will adapt and continue to thrive for some time.
LisaMariner gave us an exec-class memo on Erik Bedard's radio interview Thursday. http://www.marinercentral.com/forum/index.php?showtopic=2628
Most interestingly, Bedard publicly "announced" that he would like to be a Mariner long-term. The mainframe crunch on this:
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1. I remember Geoff Baker, who is an absolutely outstanding baseball *analyst* as well as writer, putting forth a hum-dilly of an argument that Bedard wasn't going to even consider the Pacific Northwest. The argument was logical and convincing, and had its arms around both the on-field and off-field issues.
Geoffy has a much better feel for clubhouse intangibles than *anybody* in cyber-Seattle, and his column made me a little queasy. :- ) It was the main reason that D-O-V hasn't been runnin' down the road very hot on this one.
We mention this not only because Baker's rep is secure in any case, but to underline what a pleasant surprise Bedard's announcement is. Serendipity, baby. When Jessica Alba sidles up to you and asks you where you've been all her life, you don't start wondering what is the catch here. You just dial up Ruth's Chris Steakhouse before she has any chance whatsoever to realize that you're a dilwad.
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2. We also remember, however, how disgusted Erik Bedard was in Baltimore -- and yet, how interested he was in giving them a discount on a 4-year deal.
I mean, Bedard REALLY sprained his eyes rolling them upward on the TV interview Justynius mentioned to us. Hometown TV postgame, reporter gushes about how it's helped him to be with the Orioles.... on TV now, Bedard looks directly at the camera, rolls his eyes contemptuously, and says "Yeah, the Orioles."
And they'd BEEN a joke for several years, because of Angelos...
This is the team from which Erik Bedard aggressively sought a contract extension. Meaning that Bedard, being the intelligent man that he is, likes comfort zones and doesn't want to gamble $60M against a possible $90M. If you had $60M in your checking account, would you bet it all for a shot at $90M? Even if you had 10:1 odds in your favor?
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3. Bedard's statement is one more feather in Don Wakamatsu's ever-lengthening headdress. It is a statement, from the inside, that the stormclouds have parted.
Carlos Silva won't be throwing Erik Bedard up against a wall in Seattle, because the new administration prefers great pitchers to ... um, other types of pitchers.
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4. Erik Bedard has started 10 games in 2009, and the MOST (!) runs he has given up is 3.
Look at the runs column on this game log! http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/gl.cgi?n1=bedarer01&t=p&year=2009
Go through his games and you'll see that his W/L record should be, very reasonably, 8 and 1. The man is LITERALLY pitching as effectively as Randy Johnson used to.
He is never going to be Warren Spahn. He's going to give you 180-190 franchise innings per season. Pull him at 100 pitches, every game. Skip a turn every once in a while. Drive him like a short-stroke Ferrari, watching the red line, the way that teams did with David Cone and Pedro Martinez and Bret Saberhagen.
You've got your 9K lefty Cy Young ace and he just announced that he wants a contract -- just like Randy Johnson did in 1997. You going to stare at the downside here, like you did with RJ in 97-98?
Cheers,
Dr D
Comments
I guess the question of whether the Mariners can re-sign Bedard rests on how long a contract Bedard wants. The team has expressed an organizational philosophy of disliking contracts longer than 4 years...ESPECIALLY for pitchers. They stretched very VERY far outside their comfort zone in acquiring Bedard in the first place, so one would hope they'd stretch one more time and lock him up for 5-6 years...but it's not a given that they are willing to do this.
How many years does Bedard want? Will he sign midseason for less than what he would get in FA to avoid gambling 60 mil against 90? Can the Mariners afford the money it will take to keep Bedard from heading east to bigger markets?
Bedard is good but he aslo really fragile. For me it comes down to the contract terms. His agent wanted 7 years at $14mil per WHEN he was traded to Seattle. The market is DOWN since then. Dunn just signed for 2/$10mil.
Bedard takes 5 years for $65mil or so and its a deal.
On the other hand, if I get a good package for him I might deal him as well. Looking at the market though that might not happen (still a strong buyer's market).