=== Suuuuuuure, Dept. ===

After four games, the Rangers sport a teamwide 173 OPS+, including a .722 SLG.  Their whole ballclub has a SLG that is 100 points north of Albert Pujols'.  

I predict that if they maintain their 173 OPS+, or even 169+, they will win the division.

In our zeal to measure everything in baseball, neo-sabes have foolishly asserted that we can measure everything in baseball, and censor out everything that has reference to intangibles and chemistry.  

Such as the concept of "a hot ballclub."

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We remember the 1987 Brewers starting 13-0 (!!), 17-1 and 20-3.  

We attended the Kingdome games in which the Brewers extended their record to 19-3 and 20-3, and we are here to tell you that the April 1987 Brewers would have taken the AL All-Star team three out of four falls.  

They had as much swagger as any baseball team we've seen since 1976.  You should have seen the arrogance that Dan Plesac exuded on the mound as he closed out the wins. 

But that Brewers team went from 20-3 to 22-19.  It wasn't a great team; it was a red-hot team.

............

Some early-hot teams are great teams.  The 1984 Tigers started 35-5 (!) and did win 104.  ... still, they weren't as good as 35-5, were they?

The Boston Red Sox' payroll is $170M.  The 2011 Rangers came out of the gate and destroyed them like they were a single-A team.  Not by luck, but by being far better than the Red Sox.

They even beat The Great Bedar'.  Hot teams will do that.

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Are the Rangers great?  Well, last year their offense had an OPS+ of 102.  They lost Vlad, and added Napoli.

Their rotation looks pretty decent, but they lost Cliff Lee.

Hm.  I'm going to say they're not the 1927 Yankees.  But they are a load right now.

..............

The '27 Yankees had a team OPS+ of 127, by the way, which is a few points shy of Ken Griffey Jr's lifetime OPS+ and exactly equal to Justin Morneau's.  But the Yankees had to let the pitcher and the benchies hit.

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=== Derek Holland, LHP ===

When he's on, he's pretty much Clayton Kershaw.  

The first pitch of the game, Holland shot a 94-mph LH bullet right in on Ichiro's hands for a called strike.  The gun said 94; visually it looked 98.

Right there, one pitch, I said, "Well, we've got Pineda tomorrow night."  Seriously.  Earl used the first inning to see how each SP was throwing, to see whether he'd have to gamble to muddy the water on a probable loss, or whether he could afford to sit back and ride a victory.

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But the difference between Holland and Kershaw is that Holland can lose his release point, and frequently does.  Not usually, but frequently.

Throughout the 1st, 2nd, and 3rd innings, I wondered whether the M's could get a guy on, make him pitch from the stretch, put some pressure on.... if they did, I figured a 40% chance that Holland would lose his stride.

......

This in fact occurred.  

The Mariners did a kick-tail job of battling an overwhelming LHP, and after Milton Bradley lined a base hit to lead off the 4th, Holland immediately threw a ball to Jack Cust that missed by three or four feet.  I sat up in my chair.

Cust walked, two on nobody out.

Justin Smoak hit a double off the fence, on a tough pitch in on his hands (check GameDay), and the game was back on.  It wasn't over until Neftali Perez got the last out.

.......

But if Derek Holland is available in your fantasy league, grab him.  B'lee DAT.  

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Great job by the M's.  You make the 1927 Yankees sweat, you're doing your job.  There will be lousy teams on your schedule too, and you can pad your stats against them.

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=== Dr's Prognosis Dept. ===

Did you watch Derek Holland last night?  That is what the Mariners are hoping James Paxton will be, next year.

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