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eyes majorly slideways on that one...didn't even NOTICE the walk rate increases for Olivo...very nice catch, Rick. This is why you're a tough fantasy opponent. :)
Olivo goes for a Walk
Something has been happening to Miguel Olivo the hitter over the last few years. I'd been watching him this season and thinking, "I don't remember him walking so much." And sure enough, the man has been progressing as a hitter. The eye is getting better. You CAN teach an old dog new tricks:
Year % BB
2008 2.2
2009 4.6
2010 6.3
2011 9.1
The WARs have increased since 2008 as well, from 1.1 to 2.0 to 3.2 last season.
The progression is steady. That 9.1 mark for this season is very intriguing, and I think it points to good things going forward. His slugging has taken a hit so far this season, but as expected, even with the poor start, we're seeing his OBP stay close to the same levels he's achieved during this time.
We know that as sluggers come to the age Olivo is approaching, they often swap power for walks as their power drops. Is this what is happening to Miguel? Could be, but I don't get that feeling watching him. His breakout power year in KC was in 2009. In that season, as he doubled his walk rate, the ISO also went from .190 to .241. This suggests Miguel didn't start walking to compensate for loss of power, but rather for suckitude.
At any rate, I'm expecting to see a surge of hitting goodness from Olivo over the next month or two. Nothing real special, but enough to start him ahead of Jaso in the AL only league, at least this week. The month of June has been good to Miguel that last couple years, with wOBA's of .422 and .353.
If Olivo does get hot, he follows Ibanez as the next player we can thank the Royals for fixing for us.
Rick
Comments
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Which team Is yours? It was nice of Olivo to back me up with a hit tonight. I'll need everything I got to beat Taro.
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What's more, Olivo's walk rate has been awful (excluding last season) since 2005. The thing is though, he's had a major league career since 2002. In 03 and '04 ('02 was just a callup) Olivo ran poor, but respectable walk rates of 5.5 and 6.1%. In fact, check his minor league numbers, '02 he walked 40 times in 411 PA, (9.8% walk rate), and in '01 he walked 37 times in 368 trips to the plate (10%). Olivo had decent patience, until he started a season on the Mariners. In 2005, his walk rate fell to a putrid 2.2%, and hovered there until he finally started to correct it in 2009. Why? Who knows, but it's weird.
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Now that you point it out ... the mind's eye definitely confirms that Olivo has held up on some tantalizing 3-ball tease pitches... his BB rate is no accident so far...
The ML hitter population *in general* gains BB's as it ages. Olivo's not exactly defying gravity.
So, a nice little bonus in the BB department may be the M's at the catcher spot for 2011-12. His OPS+ is 75 right now and we will take that and run.
........
Great little article man... I'm feelin' caffeinated but not confined :- )