Vargas and Gimenez threw few changeups and sliders on Monday.
Vargas was getting his only swinging strikes on the change, but Gimenez called only 38% [changes and cutter/sliders combined] .... compared to Vargas / Olivo's usual 60-70%. And Vargas got tattoo'ed, ending the M's lockdown streak.
Vargas' success has been based on his third pitch, a nasty little cutter, and a 40-30-30 type pitch mix, as you can see here.
Dr. Mike Marshall emphasizes that his Grand Strategy works only when the three pitches are randomized -- fastballs have to be well under 50%. (Put down the whipped cream pie, Billy1 -- fastballs and hard cutters combined are to total 70%.)
Vargas centered some pitches, too, no question about it. Pitchers have A games and B games - Vargas' B game is when he misses with (say) 25% of his pitches rather than 10%. But that wasn't the only thing going on. Monday, Vargas went to a 60-20-20 pitch mix, and it cost dearly.
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Fister and Gimenez, last time around, also threw a huge number of fastballs. You'll remember Dr. D's surprise and annoyance at the Fister Fastball game. Hm. Guess who was catching that day?
Not much question that Gimenez is calling a predictable FB game that is in contradistinction to the sophisticated, cross-em-up game that Miguel Olivo is calling.
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Miguel Olivo has been an invisible, but major, part of the Lockdown Streak. He calls for large numbers of offspeed pitches, in part because he's not scared of runners even on 75-mph change curves.
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Chris Gimenez is not a dedicated catcher, and it's not as simple as telling him to call more offspeed. "Hey, Chris, call what they're not looking for, wouldja?" Gimenez probably does not have that feel.
CERA isn't going to prove anything in so few games, but since you already know what is going on, here's a bit of corroboration:
So now we understand one more very smart thing that Eric Wedge has been doing -- playing Olivo as much as he possibly can. There is no question in my mind that Wedge has liked Olivo's feel for the pitching staff and that Wedge has little or no confidence in Gimenez'.
Cool, isn't it? To suddenly realize, one more time, that the manager is ahead of us?
Olivo may be the toughest hombre in major league baseball, so we don't doubt that he can keep playing 6 days out of 7. But Dan Wilson's comment on this was: 80 games into the year, if he doesn't get some rest, a catcher's legs are gone, and he can't hit.
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=== Dr's R/X Dept. ===
SSI's suggested solution is a simple one: Josh Bard.
Get him up here, and get him on the same sheet of music in the catcher/pitcher meetings. Bard, being 53 years old, does have the feel for calling a game of baseball.
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=== Generic Drug Equivalents Dept. ===
Supposing that Eric Wedge wants no part of Josh Bard? Fine. Go get any catcher in the world, any real live dedicated 34-year-old catcher, even if he hits .165. We need a guy to catch 25-30 games and call a good game.
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=== Third Alternative ===
Supposing that Gimenez is going to be on the roster? Fine: let him catch Erik Bedard's games. Bedard throws two pitches, in 65/35 ratio, and Chris Gimenez can call that game.
You could also have Gimenez call Felix' games, because Felix can call his own games. But the last guys I'd have Gimenez catching would be the 4-5 starters, whose effectiveness depends on sophistication....
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Geoff Baker has been taking the M's to task all season for having Gimenez on the 25-man anyway. Gimenez is a multi-positional insurance policy ... who can't be used at other positions.
He provides the illusion of flexibility, but the reality is that he's costing the M's half a roster spot --half of their backup catcher spot.
***BARD FOR BACKUP CATCHER***
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=== Jamey Wright ===
Also threw only 3 sliders/cutters in 24 pitches, instead throwing mostly armside-run fastballs. Gimenez did not call this Marshall Pitcher correctly, either.
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=== Brandon League ===
Threw 7 pitches on the night, 7 of which were Sasaki Syndrome pitches. First pitch = fastball ... behind in the count = fastball, the farther ahead in the count you get = the more certain the splitter becomes.
It so happened that tonight he faced the 8-9-1 hitters, and also that he had his location.
A week after the public brouhaha, League has gotten his way. He will tip his pitches, and he assures us that it won't matter. Hope he's right.
At least the outs are on the first and second pitches!
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Be Afraid,
Dr D
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San-man earlier predicted that Wright was merely hot, not improved ... the last week, Dr. D has begun to worry about his control. Just so y'know.
Wright's under concerned observation in The World According to Garp, er, SSI.
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It's a blinkin' good thing these starters don't need relief pitchers.
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I am afraid that League just don't care they know what is coming. He doesn't care who he is facing either. And when he faces serious hitters (see his blowups a couple of weeks ago) the M's get into a serious losing streak. When he faces the bottom of the order, we get what we are seeing now. I wish the DA a speedy recovery, cause we need a closer on this team.
I am not confident with Wright. Never really was...his name was on the "pitchers we can count on" list only in relation to other Mariner relievers. :\
I am seeing signs of Wright's release point wabbling all over the place...look at the starting point to his pitches in pitch F/X in one of his early good games and in one of his recent bad ones. Notice the scatter difference?
Seems that part of the Gimenez call up was due to his versatility to play OF if needed. Well that surely isn't needed right now.
Shakespeare wrote, "Something is rotten in the state of Denmark."
And that friends and neighbors is our BU catcher and his pitch calling.
And since W. Shakespeare is "The Bard", is it clear who we should call up (clever, huh?).
Do it exactly at the same time we call up Ackley. Er....Tomorrow!
Or, better yet, this afternoon.
"If you prick us, do we not bleed? if you tickle us, do we not laugh? if you poison us, do we not die? and if you wrong us, shall we not revenge?"
Having nothing, nothing can he lose...