Okay - I understand everybody believed Kotch was a 95 OPS+ guy before he arrived. I get that. Maybe everyone else is right and I'm wrong. I'll concede that.
But why should Kotch be benched and not Lopez and Figgy. If Kotch "cannot get it done", what about Figgy and Lopez leave them out of that category.
Kotch is hitting 20 OPS+ under norm - Figgy 40 -- Lopez 50. Why is the roster guy regular who is currently 3rd in OPS+ on the team the one singled out for "cannot get it done, long or short?" The guy leading the team in doubles - and second in HR and RBI is the one guy you say must be benched?
Is this a recommendation for Langerhans, with a career OPS+ of 87?
Is it a suggestion that the .192 hitting Carp should be called up?
The team DH and 3B are both hitting 120 OPS under the team 1B results, (and both are hitting 50 OPS under the catcher aggregate).
IMO - benching Kotchman at this point would be a near repeat of the Johjima/Norton disaster -- when they cut the guy who had been hitting up a storm, and rewarded the horridly slumping Johjima with a big contract.
If you're going to bench someone - you MUST "begin" with the worst performers. That would be Griffey ... then Lopez ... then Figgy.
But, as long as Griffey and his .450 OPS continue playing - benching ANYONE else simply compounds the problem. The suggestion is 100% in line with the Bavasi/Hargrove veteran entitlement plan. Benching the 3rd best hitter on the team while continuing to play 6 guys who are worse not only makes the team worse -- it completely disconnects consequence from cause.
My view -- if you bench your 75 OPS+ guy while continuing to play your 28 OPS+ guy (who doesn't even have a mitigating factor of a defensive ability needed) -- then your team deserves to finish behind Baltimore.
I used to love Norm in "Cheers!"
But this is about a different Norm. It seems that I remember Bill James once wrote about (I used to buy his Baseball Digest religiously, each year..going back to the ealy 80's) the fact that, over time, 1-run ball games tend to level out. One year you win a bunch of them, the next you don't. Over time, teams norm out.
Somebody can reference that...but I'm sure that I've read that somewhere in James.
Last year the M's were hell-on-wheels in one run games. This year they are 4-10, IIRC.
If that 4-10 was reversed this is a 20 and 21 team. At 7-7 in one-run games this is a 17-22 team.
Point....M's were "lucky" last year and somewhat "unlucky" this. This team isn't as bad as its record (it's two games under Pythagorus)...but it still isn't very good.
That being said. Bonehead baserunning cost them at least one run yesterday...and perhaps three.
RRS must come out of the rotation.
The bullpen needs to be reevaluated, which is an understatement.
But Fister throws tonight. If we can really light it up, like score three runs, we should win.
BTW, way to go Kotchman last night. I appreciate the hits. Wak, bench Kotchman. He can't get it done long (or even short) term. Is it me, or does Saunders stroke look long and loopy again?
Go team.
Comments
Sandy, You're right in a lot of ways. I do think, however, that Lopez and Figgins are much more difficult to replace than Kotchman (Figgy being a very tough out who walks .120 and Lopez having a Gold Glove-type season at 3B). All have very low BABIPs, around .190 for Kotchman and .250 for the other two) but (being objective) it seems to me that Kotch is the "softer" out. And 1B types are generally more available. I suggested two guys who might be. I wish Carp had earned a shot as I like him a bunch. But he's pulled a Kotch at Tacoma and doesn't deserve it right now. I would like to see Tui (despite his struggles) get 10 games in a row in the lineup, as well. I'm not blaming Kotchman for the M's struggles but he's playing a position that demands offensive production. He's not providing it. I hope he gets hot. Perhaps last night was a precursor.
Griffey hasn't hit a frozen rope in about 3 weeks. I thought Saunders looked terrible and overmatched at the plate last night. His swing looked loopy again. He did make a heck of a catch on a nose-diving ball right at him, however. Pretty soon you either write this season off or you make a major lineup change. I'm for the later. 1B and DH are the logical places to start. God knows when Bradley will return. Play Sweeney every game. Keep Jr. on the bench as a left handed bat when sacrifice flies are demanded. That, he can do. Make a bold move at 1B. Move RRS out of the rotation. If all that doesn't work, by the time it doesn't work it will be too late to catch up anyway. We can hang around in this devision with a mediocre line-up. Let's find a way to get there.
Moe,
All very reasonable -- and I don't disagree with anything ... EXCEPT "Make a bold move at 1B."
This team, to this point, has more or less proven the point I've been making for over a year. That is a bad, bad, bad, bad, bad idea to BEGIN a rebuilding cycle with an expensive (bold) move. That is precisely what Bavasi did with the Beltre/Sexson tag-team. That choice influenced (and limited) every move that followed for 5 years.
The ChiSox currently have THREE of the top 12 hitters in the AL, and have a below average offense. ONE big bat will be 1/3 as capable of moving the Seattle offense forward.
I'm not saying the club has to keep Kotch. I'm saying that ORDER matters.
Even though the Bedard choice didn't work out -- it was reasonably well timed to the extent that the club "thought" it was the FINAL piece needed. (They were wrong). But, trading Kotch's 75 OPS+ for some 8-figure 140 OPS+ (assuming you have enough on the farm to pull it off) - only raises the TEAM OPS+ from 80 to 83. Where do you get the other 15+ points of OPS to reach average?
If the answer is -- "Well, Figgy and Lopez will come around," then my response is: AFTER they come around, talk to me. If they start producing, and Kotch doesn't - (and we've got a warm body posting a 90 OPS+ in the DH slot) - I'll be THRILLED to discuss benching, trading, demoting, roasting, skewering and sauteeing of Kotchman.
Personally - I disagree with the concept that 1B (Kotchman) is *ANY* easier to replace than Figgy and Lopey. We had Sexson flaming out at 1B for two years and WHO were the "easy" replacements?
Anyone remember Cairo -- the guy who finished 2nd to Sexson in 1B starts in 2008, (while posting a .646 OPS). The #3 1B that season was LaHari - who finished at .661.
Now - if by "easy" you mean -- it is easy to find a 75 OPS+ 1B to replace your current 75 OPS+ 1B -- okay, cannot argue with that. I'm a Braves fan. Who were the final 5 first basemen the Braves employed in the final 5 years of their playoff run? From 2001-2005?
Rico Brogna / Wes Helms (OPS+ of 62 / 87)
Julio Franco (94)
Robert Fick (95)
Adam LaRoche (108)
Adam LaRoche (100)
Those teams made the playoffs. What followed in the non-playoff years?
Adam LaRoche (130)
Scott Thorman (67) - Craig Wilson (49) -- then traded for 54 games of Tex (161)
Teixeira (137) - then Kotchman (73)
Kotchman (103) - then LaRoche (152 in 57 games)
Troy Glaus (114) -- ( team is 19-20 and in 4th place)
The Ms could've gone out and snagged Troy Glaus, I suppose. But I didn't hear anybody suggest him prior to Kotchman. (They did suggest Carlos Pena).
But a BOLD move is going to likely cost money and prospects. And even if the Ms do geta "Big Bat" - they'll have 1/3 the number of big bats that the ChiSox currently have. It won't matter without the other bats producing.
What I would dearly love? I'd love to see Figgy with an OBP of .390 -- Lopez hitting at a 20-HR pace, Kotchman posting the expected .750 OPS -- and THEN the club brings in Dunn to DH. If you're getting 90 and over OPS+ from everywhere except SS and Catcher, I'd be just fine with dealing Kotchman for an uber-bat at 1B. THEN, you make a bold move.