Don't have too much else to do at the moment :- ) and am more interested in the Michael Wilson trial than I'd be with a lot of other things, such as continued Ryan Langerhans at-bats, Carlos Peguero experiments, or waiting to see if our DH can get a ball out to the warning track on this road trip.

So, here y'go amig-O's.  The Linebacker Template.

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=== State of the Chatter ===

For those who just joined us, here's a 10-second lead-in on what people think about Wilson getting a chance in the majors:

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• AGIN':  Can't hit good velocity.
• FO':  If true ... also true of some ML players.  And they have velocity in AAA.  ... blasted RHP's last year, indicating that his reflexes are fine.

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• AGIN':  Can't play defense.
• FO':  Sounds like "kludgy" getting warped into "hurtful to the team."  Wilson runs real fast, and Zduriencik said he's the backup CF.

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• AGIN':  Has been in the minors 10 years.  No prospect.
• FO':  He has a great excuse for slow development:  like Conine, he's not a natural baseball player.  Late bloomers, Geronimo Berroa's and Raul Ibanez'es, and Ryan Howards, exist.

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• AGIN':  "Needing a RH outfielder" is a weak excuse.
• FO':  What M's need is a Replacement Level outfielder, Wilson being their only internal chance at this.

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SSI sees Michael Wilson as having a 40%, 50% chance to quickly perform at RL or better, and having some chance (maybe 10%) to surprise and become an ML regular.  So it's worth the chance.

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=== Batspeed ===

As SSI casts its key characteristics for Wilson, we look for a couple of things...

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Kudos to ECoug who was first to relay the scouts' general consensus on Wilson:  "Can't hit velocity and is a DH."  ... on the other side of that one have been Jack Zduriencik, Don Wakamatsu, Mike Curto (very politely), and (lol) me.

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Kudos to Jeff Sullivan who got to Mike Curto on this one. Curto is a national treasure ... okay, a regional treasure.  SSI was pleased to see that, in this case, Curto assessed Wilson the same way that we did.  There's one guy that it's nice to agree with.  ;- )

If LL can get us Curto's takes on promoted Rainiers, that'll be soooo sweet.

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Kudos to Prospect Insider who relayed some more scouting opinion on Wilson.  Whether Dr. D agrees with this or that ... of course it's cool to hear the consensus.

There was one particular snippet that Jason relayed --- > which synch'ed up 100.00% with my own observations of Wilson.  This specific observation rings true:

His bat speed is average, but he's tremendously strong, producing well above-average raw power. He likes to extend his arms and has power to left-center, all the way round to right-center.

Bat speed is average but has raw power.  That's a great way to capture Mike Wilson, provided that you keep in mind Bruce Lee's three possible definitions of bat (hand) speed:

• Perceptual speed - Ability to gain advance notice on what's happening
• Reflexive speed - Ability to get your hand from A to B, once you decide to do so
• Throughspeed - MPH of your hand (bat) once accelerated

Here is where SSI judges these three things on Wilson:

• Perceptual - better than most minor leaguers' (is 27 y.o. and reads curves nicely)
• Reflexive - Mediocre (just too bulky to be mongoose-quick)
• Throughspeed - Superb (distance of HR balls reflects speed of bat in zone)

I think that if you're trying to get ahold of Wilson, there you go.  He is certainly not "quick" at the plate, in the sense that Dustin Ackley is quick.

But his bat is a blur once he launches, which can create confusion about what his batspeed is.

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=== Templates ===

There are quite a few RH football-player types in the big leagues... many of them synch up to this scout's review of Wilson:

He has problems with good velocity, and can't handle fastballs in on him. He likes to extend his arm and has power to left-center, all the way round to right-center.

At times Wilson sits breaking ball and can generally do a good job hitting them hard, but he will chase balls out of the zone, especially down and away.

In a fastball count, he will hit the daylights out of an average heater and hit it a long way, but he's still one to swing and miss and doesn't hit the ball to right field enough to hit for average.

Tell me what part of this would not apply to Good Adrian Beltre?  Beltre is another muscle-bound slugger with mediocre bat launch but excellent raw power.

The "get him on the hands or with sliders low-away" is an FKey7 approach.  Jim Lefebvre preached constantly that Jay Buhner (another muscle-bound RHB) would never be able to deal with this simple pitch sequence.

So you can see specifically why SSI does not believe that "pound his hands and then go off the plate away" is much of an indictment of Wilson personally.  It's like saying, "Show Ian Kinsler a real sharp Erik Bedard curve and then come back with good velocity at the letters."  Well, yeah.

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Here are some muscle-bound RH hitters who do have (1) mediocre bat launch, (2) great throughspeed, and (3) questionable run values on fastballs:

• Adrian Beltre
• Jeff Conine
• Vernon Wells
• Carlos Lee
• Adam Jones* (not exactly muscle-bound, but a football type)
• Michael Wilson

The Great Mike Curto :- ) said, on LL, that Wilson (1) does hit offspeed better than FB ... and that (2) he usually looks bad (e.g. on fastballs) when overswinging.

Go through the list of Joneses, Wellses, etc. and BINGO!  you will see that this group loves to blast curve balls, and that the group has to work to stay even +0.00 on fastballs.

Carlos Lee is an exception, because he's better than the other guys.  But they all hurt offspeed pitches and they're all okay with fastballs.

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Vernon Wells is an unlikely, but very cool, template for Michael Wilson.  

• Loves to crush CB and CU
• Battles to stay even with heaters
• Used to be fast enough to play CF, now is somewhat dubious in LF
• 0.50 EYE
• 270/330/475 slash line is what Wilson would do if he panned out

Wells has been very inconsistent as a hitter, see-saw'ing between 130 OPS+'s and 80's.  

I suspect that this would be true of the Beltre / A. Jones / V. Wells family in general:  years skewing more wildly to UP/DWN than most other hitters.

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=== Rohrshach Test ===

Have you ever realized that there is such a player - a football type with average bat launch, excellent power, who looks mechanical, but who winds up with plenty of RBI's?

A guy who often pulls rocks out in the field, but who outruns a lot of his mistakes?

What has been your instinctive reaction to these kludgy-looking, but often effective, players?  :- )  It might tell you something about the way you view baseball.

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=== Dr's Prognosis ===

First of all, gentlemen, the definition of "prospect":  if a player's ceiling is ML fringe, then he is by definition a "prospect."

Kyle Seager is headed for ML fringe.  That makes him a prospect, as opposed to some guy struggling in A+ who will never even get to AAA.  That is a non-prospect.

Even if you think Michael Wilson's ceiling is 4th outfielder, then of course he is a "prospect."  The minors are there to feed the majors.

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Based on other players in his general category, I don't believe that Michael Wilson's mediocre bat launch is a fatal flaw.

Here's my wild guess for Wilson:

• 10-20% - A few years as a Vernon Wells or Adam Jones type
• 30% - A few years as a fringe ML player who helps at times (perhaps Michael Morse or Ryan Langerhans contribution)
• 50-60% - Won't have a career at all

This would make a Michael Wilson trial extremely preferable to losing another 70 games by 2-1 scores.

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That's my opinion I could be wrong,

Dr D