Q. How lucky did I get, Dr?
A. First time we looked at the X-rays ... an inning here and there when out with friends ... I thought you dodged a 90% mortality bullet there, Mr. Shlabotnik.
Once we had a chance to get back to our office, flip through our Desk Reference and make a few calls, we realized: you won a game you had about a 30% chance of winning.
Given the same pitches, batted balls, etc. in 10 games, I'd say the Red Sox win that game 7 or 8 times. This was one of the two or three.
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Q. Should we apologize for it?
A. Um, no. One-run* games are supposed to be a coin flip. You take the 7-2, 10-1 and 7-3 clean victories, and hope to split in the close ones.
Baseball's a game of luck, er, "inches," and this win makes up for one or two horrible BABIP losses earlier.
The M's Pythag going into the game was perfect at 12-15 .... and the run differential is only down because of a few weird Ray, Leuke and Vargas outings.
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Q. What bad luck did the Sox get?
A. They were 0-for-11 with RISP .... but that includes two K's, two infield pops and a couple of weak grounders, too. At least one other AB, Fenway saved the Sox a foul pop out.
So it's not like they had a bunch of A-Gone liners into mitts. They had that one, and they had two or three deep fly balls (in a small park), and they had some hard foul balls go just foul.
But, the M's should have scored more runs, too. ... there was the Olivo blown call, there was a ring-up on Milton Bradley with one out and Ichiro on 3rd, etc.
The Sox had 7 hits and 6 walks (with several doubles); the M's had 8 hits and 4 walks.
The Sox should have won, but it wasn't a Base/Out Blowout by any stretch.
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Q. What was wrong with Doogie?
A. Thusly:
Because of his being off his game, and the ump ripoff, he scuffled. But I remember times that Mike Moore scuffled and gave up 8 runs rather than 0.
It reminds me of when the Mariners got Chris Bosio and one scout said, "Don't undersell this guy. He is a battler."
Bosio, for a while, was a Grade A starter mostly by will alone. There are guys like that. Saturday, Fister was like that. He gets in trouble, and he makes you beat him. Don't undersell that.
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Q. Is that kind of an excuse, complaining that you got 12 strikes taken away?
A. Go make a major league team, get scheduled in Fenway, pitch to AGone and Youkilis, throw a strike, and have the ump not call it. ..... Lots of times.
Then come back and tell me whether it's whining.
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Were the Seahawks whining in 2005? A pro sports game balances on the edge of a knife. Create unfair conditions and the game is broken.
I was interested in soccer for a year or two, and it didn't take me long to get tired of stuff like Robin van Persie getting thrown out of a Barcelona game on a technicality. I won't watch sports if they're not fair.
The Mariners aren't getting enough respect from the umps generally. Right now, Wedge is hoping that time and W's will take care of it. We'll see.
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Yahoo pointed out that in 43 career starts, Doogie had walked >2 batters only five times.
Here he was walking 5 guys. Most of the explanation is in the ump'ing.
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Q. Some guys battle harder in adversity than others? Even in the majors?
A. That was true of the M's defense, too.
The Sox got runners on and (although the M's did get some luck) the entire M's run-prvention unit was rawhide-tough. They demanded that the Sox prove it. The Sox didn't.
That's a lot better than hanging your head and getting mauled.
Right now (this April) this club is as tough as Lou's best teams were. Seriously, after 30 years you can see the difference between a team that is (1) hoping something will go right and one that is (2) imposing its will onto the game.
Somebody buy Eric Wedge a lemynade.
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Q. What's up with Aaron Laffey?
A. I still don't buy in, but Jack Zduriencik has brought in three 88-mph dime-a-dozen lefties (Laffey, Vargas, French) and has taken flak for all of them.
But as a group, the three have wayyyyyy overperformed. I dunno, maybe he's got an eye for makeup, or change-speed, or something.
Gingerly move Laffey from "writeoff" to "okay, if he keeps going we'll maybe deign to root for him." ::sniffs airily::
.........
Maybe ghost wants to go back and check Laffey's splits on long rest. That'd be my first offhand question - whether maybe he's pitcher A vs B based on a minty-fresh arm. Butch Henry was like that, IIRC.
........
Like ghost said, the M's now have 2.7 reliable RP's and Wedge has used smoke and mirrors to get a slopload of saves out of that. One more real good arm and this pen could move to "solid."
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Q. SSI on the Bradley ejection?
A. When the umps blow a huge call on you, they're supposed to work hard to keep from ejecting you.
The umps have a responsibility to handle an (understandable) protest with "Okay, you've had your say" or by turning around and walking away (Bradley was pinned to the 2B bag).
Once again, an ump appeared to bait Bradley, and this despite the umps being totally in the wrong. It's unfair, and though I'm not PC, here's one situation where I wonder about the (subconscious) racial discrimination.
Maybe the AGone lineout DP was a makeup call.
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Q. Nice job by Donkey and Diddy?
A. We shoulda split the Diddy/Donkey games; we got a coin flip and went 2-0 instead of 1-1. Good on us; the breaks are evening out.
5-gamer now kiddies and we're back to King, Kong and Peach.
See you at the ballpark. If Bedard is snapping off those diveballs on Tuesday, this season is really in business.
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That wonderful resource of all things random and interesting, has the splits for days of rest - and even breaks it down between starting and relieving. For Laffey's career, he has a .748 OPS against on 2 days or less rest, and a .513 OPS against on 3+ days. Of course you have to remember that Laffey's career hasn't been long yet, and he's started for the lion's share of his major league innings, so those samples are around 150 and 90 PA respectively.
By my estimate you're now counting League, Wright, Laffey is the 0.7 I guess. You haven't given up on our dear Mr. Pauley have you?
By my count of the Brooks graph, Fister got jobbed of 11 strikes; he also had 4 balls called for strikes. So net loss = 7.
Lackey, by my count, got jobbed of 6 strikes; he also had 1 ball called for a strike. So net loss = 5.
Seems to me like the problem was mostly a bad ump, not a biased one. He basically ignored strikes in the lower right quadrant of the strike zone. Fister threw there a lot more than Lackey; so he got more bad calls.
At least that's how I see it.
Although I must say, at least from watching gameday this year, the umpiring in general has seemed really bad compared to previous years. The low strikes are not getting called with any kind of consistency.
Submitted by paracorto on 4/28/11 10:29pm.
These M's are suddenly exciting and it's time to win a series vs one of the big clubs. If they can do it now confidence will arrive in great quantity and you know...this is a mental game before anything else !
I'm glad for having called it. Amazing M's !!!
though (now that you look it up) his K/BB are about the same and it's mostly that his BABIP is high when relieving on short rest. But, of course, that might mean that he's making quality pitches in the zone when rested.
Some pitchers are their 'real' selves when rested well, and when not rested well, their arms are hurting and stiff...
Would be very interesting to find that Zduriencik had done a Gillick/Rhodes and snagged a RP whose game changes when kept fresh...
He's the 0.7. Laffey doesn't make 'reliable' in my book by a long shot :- )
I think Pauley's kind of a Ryan Franklin, a guy who mixes his pitches and pitches ahead in the count, low BB, and that he can pitch a little bit in the AL (as opposed to RRS, Snell, Olson, and all the guys the M's spent innings on in his place).
But to ask him to put out fires, like against Texas and Boston and stuff? Let's call him 0.7 rather than 1.0 like Wright is right now...
Cheerfully concede that Lackey faced a tight zone, though my count for him was significantly different than for Doogie, and Boston's relievers didn't get a single strike call blown against them by my count.
Didn't check Seattle's relievers.
Apparently the ump was in the mood to prevent nibbling, at which Doogie is more "ump-dangerous" than Lackey is. ..., though after the day's starters were out, the ump started simply calling strikes and balls.
..........
1. An ump who forces a pitcher to actually hit the OFFICIAL RULEBOOK ZONE for 100% of strike calls is known as a "hitter's ump" and there are probably five of them in the league. His ump-ERA is going to be sky high.
Hardball Times has demonstrated that the called zone is considerably wider than the rulebook. Umps don't require pitchers to throw the ball directly over the plate; every game would be 3.5 hours with 15-20 runs. :- )
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2. All of the 11 that we both see actually did hit the zone -- most of them had all kinds of plate -- simply blown calls.
3. I count another 5-6 "balls" that were within ONE BASEBALL'S width of the rulebook strike zone -- and easily within the real strike zone.
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4. I see 4 red dots that aren't touching the strike zone -- and they are all hair's margins off the zone. Even the hitters wouldn't call those "blown strike calls" given back.
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If you take the strike zone as "a pitch that just nips the rulebook zone, or within one or two inches," the count is actually 16-0 against Fister.
Debates aside, that was one whale of a hitter's strike zone Doogie was facing :- )
Now what's your prediction for the home stand? :- )
...but you can't imagine to win a series at Fenway Park with Vargas and Fister without realizing this will be a strange season -- and perhaps even unbeliavable, who can say ?
Amazing M's !!!
Not sure there's much meaning in the rest splits...and I say that because he wasn't making better pitches yesterday. :) He looks similar to Horacio Ramirez in terms of the pitches he throws. 86-88 mph "fast"ball with only average command, 82 mph "slider" that doens't slide all that much...he does sink his change up better than HoRam did...but that might just take him from utter meatball to tolerable org filler. Last night, he gave up three big flies to CF/LF...on a line shot to Bradley, one a homer to anywhere except the spot it landed (warning track just in front of the triangle), and one a crisply smashed double off the green monster. He also gave up a hard smash to Figgins at third that should have been a double and a humpback liner right to Ichiro that was hit pretty hard. Not to mention the 500 foot HR Ortiz hit to several feet just foul of the the LF pole. :)
He's had other appearances where he appeared to pitch alright...but last night he pitched rather poorly and got very...VERY...lucky.
One of the stranger sequences. My view through the tube & beer bottles:
1) Top 3rd runners on 2nd and 3rd one out, 1st base ump Todd Tichener blows call on Olivo. Everyone else in the stadium got that one right but that dude. He was either a) fixated on the cotton candy vendor 15 rows up behind home plate or b) bestowing the homefield advantage, not immediately realizing it was outside the 'close call' zone. It's not effin close.
2) Says Milton Bradley, loudly with his bad words. Root guys weakly labeled his actions uncalled for... nay, it's exactly what was called for and if I'm Eric Wedge MB gets a game ball. Milton hates unfairness, is a solid teammate and an emotional dude. He has Olivo's back & lets everyone know it, draws attention to the injustice repeatedly.
3) Until 2nd base ump Gerry Davis ejects him. Did he bait Bradley or were they dancing? Hard to tell from the camera, but based on future events looked like a waltz to me.
4) Bottom 5th bases loaded none out - similarly high leverage situation to Top 3rd. Davis makes the clear make up call @2nd, very nearly as obvious as the call in the 3rd, completing the dance with a flourish. Sox barely make a fuss, even the Sox fans uncharacteristicly barely whimper. It's understood.
...but if Bradley got ejected for saying something bad about umpires categorically, rather than saying something bad about the first base ump...who deserved to get reamed for the horrible HORRRRRRIBLE call he made...then I could understand ejecting him. He was talking loudly and not to anyone in particular...I suspect he was just angry enough to start generally mouthing off about how the umpires as a whole are no good at their jobs. That's when you can understand ringing him up. If all he did was scream and moan and throw profane insults at the second base ump regarding the first base ump, then the crew chief has a responsibility to understand that the call was awful and give Bradley a loooooong leash.
While I'm enjoying the streak as much as anyone, I said before it started that this team is practically engineered to be streaky.
While the bullpen may not be quite as bad as I feared, I believe it a mistake to interpret a few good outings as cause to dismiss the way they pitched during the 7-game losing streak.
In the end, the roster is pretty much the same as the one that lost 7 in a row - (except Lueke is gone). Over the last 7 days, the team has a cumulative OPS+ of 117. Does ANYONE think this offense is a 117 OPS+ offense?
In the last 7 days, opponents have posted a 60 OPS+ against Seattle pitching. Is THAT going to continue?
The reality of the roster hasn't changed. The offense is realistically "at best" a low 90s OPS+, (which has hit WAY above that during this streak).
The rotation is solid - but the bullpen is questionable.
It was an error to believe the club was as bad as they were when losing 7 in a row. It's equally an error to pretend they are as good as they've played during this streak. They aren't.
Outside of Smoak, the club doesn't have an infielder "likely" to post a .700 OPS. For the season, they have a grand total of 3 HRs from their primary starting OFs and DH -- COMBINED.
In the bullpen, Ray, Wilhelmsen and Lueke all flamed out. So far, the club hasn't even looked at a replacement, (which may be a comment on their confidence level in that regard).
Perhaps the best news is the team DER is up to .691 - (11th in the AL) - but a drastic improvement over their numbers when they were losing.
The team still has 4-7 bats which could go silent at any moment. They still have a bullpen filled with guys that make the home fans more nervous than the opposition. I'd love to be wrong, but if I take an honest assessment of the talent on this club - it STILL remains a club that has sub-.500 talent. Certainly, there are "miracle" scenarios where the club remains in the race all year - (Bradley finds his .900 OPS ... Figgins finds his .750 OPS ... Cust finds his power stroke ... Ackley comes up and hits .800 ... Guti returns and hits .800). You get enough of the "we can hope" scenarios at once ... then yes, the team "could" compete long term.
But, my money is still on another 7-10 game losing streak jumping up and biting the club in the butt between now and the Break.
I agree that this club will probably be streaky. But I think that makes it a near .500 club depending on which streak they have last. I still think you're wrong about the overall quality of the Mariner defense. I think they wind up top-4 in the AL with a DER above .710 once Guti gets back. And I think they have the starting pitching depth to make the winning streaks just as long as the losing streaks. The question would be...can they plug a few of those bullpen holes and add Ackley and one other legit hitting weapon that can be more consistent and in so doing get this club to the point where the winning streaks last a bit longer than the losing streaks.
Sandy's Theory Validated
Public acknowledgement here that you posited a team built for streaks when the team was on a 7 game losing binge. I responded that the theory remains unvalidated unless the team was to reel off an actual corresponding winning streak, which seemed highly unlikely to me at the time. Well, this one definitely qualifies, so check off an initial validation for ya, Sandy, one which of course must be reviewed as the season wears on. Kudos.
I missed the ejection...wasn't watching at that point (...family pictures as my daughter was heading to her first prom. You guys with daughters know all about that dance). Did see the replay, however. He was safe, blue! What the heck were you watching!
But Skank has it right....the double up at 2B smacked of a makeup call.
What we know offensely right now is this: At 37, Ichiro is still remarkable at squaring up on the ball and can still and run. We have had the extreme pleasure of watching one of the great athletes (not just baseball players) of the last decade perform each and every day. We haven't seen him rope one 15 rows back into the RF seats yet, but now that he's wearing out up-the-middle I suspect we will see him challenged inside a bit. He'll lose one soon. If you are wondering how long an Ichiro can keep this up, I suggest you look at Ricky Henderson's amazing 1999 (at the age of 40). There is your possible template.
Smoak=Olerud (of some sort)! My goodness is he going to make a lot of money playing baseball. And, as I said a few days ago, he has the skill set to carry a team for 10 days-two weeks. Just flat out pack them along. His zero-fer last night is of no alarm.
Figgins is showing signs of a pulse...real nice signs. I bash him mostly....but I'll give him his due, lately he's on base two times+ a game. Not coincidentally that coincides with this nice 5 game streak! Go figure. The weird/ironic thing about this is that as it continues it makes him a quite viable trade chit (for which something young and talented might come our way in return) but it gives us more incentive to keep him around as we sniff the longshot possibility of a playoff race). For me....Elevate his value, trade him, put a Kennedy/Rodriguez tandem at 3B, don't look back.
And finally every game somebody else seems to come up with a big double. But nobody that you can bet on doing it.....
We NEED another consistent (x-base) bat....give us that, just that, and then we'll be sniffing along at the playoff trail for a fair while.
PItching: Fister is, indeed, Bulldog-lite. Orel Leonard Hershiser, that is.
Each time Laffey gets up in the pen, I cover myself with pillows on the couch, in preparation for the beating that I'm sure is about to happen. Then it doesn't. But, I'm still keeping the pillows very handy!
Keep feeding Wright the Mike Marshall juice, please!
The King is up today. Let the wild flailing commence.
moe
Rolled off the top of the table for a garbage strike three. The stank!
:cpoints:
And get a -7 and a +5, first month, you get 50 cpoints :- )
'course no team is as good or bad as its stats during a win/loss streak. They probably stat out to a 135-win season if you take the week's stats. And you could probably find a 140-loss Pythag during some week earlier.
........
Streakiness to the side for a moment, it's a team of mighty strengths and crippling weaknesses. No doubts there.
And it did today. One of the great RF's of our time can't see a ball right at him. 5-1...I'll take that.
Of course, the initial question is when/if Guti returns. As of this instant, I'd say the odds of Guti coming back soon enough to turn the defense around are 'questionable'. I'd say the odds of Guti coming back and performing at 100% are also questionable. And THAT leads to its own game of Jenga ... if Guti does get the call ... who goes? Except for Saunders, (I'm thinking he's got an option year left), I don't think the Ms have a real good shot at holding onto anyone else ... which means you either DFA Langerhans or Cust or maybe even Bradley. But, whoever it is ... if they walk (or are scooped up) ... and THEN Guti hits .096 and plays center like Ryan ... (or maybe he's fine for 30 days and then ends up back at the Mayo) ... then what?
Between guys like you, Doc, Taro, G_Money ... (I could go on) ... there are a WHOLE lot of quality analysts around these parts. What I think I bring to the mix is a (slightly) better ability to back up the emotional truck - and look at BOTH sides of the equation. It's why I think I'm better off analyzing the Ms than trying this gig at a Braves' site.
That said -- the Ms have had a couple of BluesMobile-at-Dealy-Plaza collapses. I've been trying to not only ask the question of why "then" - but also "how now?"
This is one of the reasons I've been swimming against the tide (a bit) on Cust. I don't see that the Ms have *ANY* option that has a measurable upside anywhere close to Cust. I can see the dominos falling if you dump Cust and then have the 'wrong' injury follow.
In truth, I agree that - "with the right breaks" - yes, this team could go .500. This team beat .500 twice in the last 4 years with teams that had sub-.500 talent. It does happen. It could happen. But, IMHO, a LOT of dominoes have to fall in the right direction for that to happen. Getting a 100% Guti back would certainly be a shot in the arm -- and if they get him, (soon), the defense could get better.
But, the outlook in the infield is that when Ackley comes up - (which is deemed a CRITICAL thing going right for a positive outcome), then Wilson is gone and the MI becomes Ryan and Ackley. Sorry, but I have little faith that Ryan/Ackley is going to be a top 4 MI *this* year. I think LROD and Ackley is a likely much better offensive MI ... which leads back to a pick-your-poison decision to be made.
While I can see the scenario where Seattle goes .500 ... I can also see how fragile their current situation is ... and believe ONE wrong move at the wrong time could potentially derail the entire season. IMO, the Johjima contract at the end of April killed one season. I think the Griffey contract last year killed another.
While I applaud the efforts Z has made to 'try' and exorcise the losing mentality of this organization, I still view this as a team of individuals with little "natural" bonding. Figgins, Bradley, (even Jack Wilson this year) ... these are just the "obvious" land mines. The club is STILL largely a group of guys paid to come and play in Seattle. There's no "organizational" glue among the regulars at all. The aggregate mental makeup from my armchair psychology couch is -- "mercenary". THAT is not a good foundation to expect to build overachievement on top of. People rail about the Yankee mercenary attitude - yet, the Yankees Jeter, Posada, Rivera trio just set a record for the first major sport trio to EVER play 17 seasons together. The Yankees built their dynasty on a foundation of home grown talent. Jeter, Posada and Rivera are *YANKEES* first ... MLBers second.
My original projection was 69 wins. I'll stick to that for the time being. But, Bedard staying healthy, Pineda avoiding "the wall" in the second half - Ackley coming up and being successful ... there are lots of things that could go right to beat that. But, the margin for the Ms is VERY small -- so the list of things that can prevent them from reaching that 69 figure are also considerable.
...that Dan Bellino's strikezone is a frakkin' joke and anything that happens in this game to Bedard is not Bedard's fault. Utterly ridiculous that umpires can turn a good pitcher into a terrible one just because they're either biased or incompetent or both.
Good call. Eject the ump instead.
High 5 slap.
So was he just sent to his bedroom for a time out? I'm sure he knows how the game is supposed to be played.
