Sorry Doc, but using entire roster on the left and starters only on the right is NOT a minor issue.
First off, the numbers don't add up from either WAR source I can find. Per Fangraphs, the Seattle "batters" produced 6.1 WAR in 2010. Per bbref, 11.7 total (5.7, if you only look at offensive WAR). So, I can't find a 4.7 WAR in ANY context that makes sense to judge the 2010 offense by. Mind you, the Fangraphs numbers for Ichiro and Gutzy and Lopez seem to match up pretty well with those shown, so I'll use Fangraph numbers for the rest of my rant.
Of course, you CAN sort by "replacement" value - which equates to playing time, so what did the top 10 players in PT produce in 2010? They produced 7.6 WAR -- that means the rest of the 2010 roster (if the 6.1 is accurate), combined for -1.5 WAR. In truth, the vast majority of benches in baseball DO produce negative WAR results. I have come to believe the #1 error the "WAR" mongers run into is in hand-waving away any negatives and pretending everyone not discussed is a 0.0 "replacement" producer.
If instead, I sort the batters by total WAR -- the positive guys (which was 10 guys) produced 11.4 WAR in 2010. Which means the rest of the position players combined to produce -5.3.
Matt made a wonderous argument before 2010 of why the team should produce 90 wins, utilizing "conservative" projections, too.
Sorry, but there were 5 negative WAR positions in 2010, and the team has a new body in only TWO of those slots. Before 2010, yes, everyone was down on Kotchman - (but even the naysayers thought he'd at least be replacment level. There were people optimistic about ...
Tui -- (-0.9 WAR)
Moore - (-0.5 WAR)
Carp -- (-0.3 WAR)
Josh -- (-0.3 WAR)
Bradley - (-0.1 WAR)
In any given season, one can expect 1/3 of the roster to perform below expectations, 1/3 to be average and 1/3 to be above average. His Ichiro decline is the ONLY projection I can see where he's actually giving a nod that somebody on the roster won't play up to expectations.
After you knock off 2-3 WAR for the other two guys that play under expection - and factor in the 2-3 WAR you lose from just a 'normal' bench .. well, you're certainly not looking at +12 wins. You're looking at maybe 7. Well 7 wins could EASILY be the Delta between Cliff Lee's 3.9 in his half season and the (HIGHLY) likely #6 or #7 SP that he'll be replaced by.
The Ms had 12.9 total WAR from pitching in 2010 (with a negative bullpen WAR). They lost 4 out of the gate from the departure of Cliff Lee. I personally think they lose another 1 or 2 from Fister (based on the 2 runs he added to his ERA between first and 2nd half). They'll likely lose another 1 or 2 WAR from the increased reliance on a bullpen that was the worst in the league last season - and is currently shopping its closer.
Maybe the club is 7 or more wins to the good when viewing its position players. But, how many are they currently down from 2010 on the pitching side?
Honestly - there are many who believe Olivo is going to completely implode once back in Seattle. (I've argued to the contrary - but in all honesty - moving from Coors to Safeco - is it reasonable to EXPECT a 1.5 Olivo?)
Ryan Howard and Derek Lee were 2.0 WAR players in 2010. So, we think Smoak is going to be Ryan Howard this year. Hmmm.
In truth - it could be that good. It could be even better. The incredible seasons of 2007 and 2009 both show how things can snowball in a good way. But, when somebody goes out of their way to compare apples to oranged to try and paint a rosy picture, it's hard to sit by and let it stand.
I/O: Rick Randall with a very fine article at Jason's site. He calculates +7 wins so far with the position players.
CRUNCH: Well, we had +2 wins, maybe a tad more, each at (1) catcher, (2) DH, and (3) shortstop. Let's take a gander at how Rick matches up ...
... whoa hold on there. Rick's only got +3.5 wins total for Capt Jack's three deals ... and +8.5 at the positions that haven't been changed over. :- ) Well, that certainly sounds pleasant.
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Ah, we see, this lineup has ..... (1) Wilson equal to 2010 at short .... (2) Cust ... (3) Ryan + Figgins at +2.6 wins over Figgins and .... who in the world was the Mariners' third baseman? Oh, right, Jose Lopez. I honestly blanked it, thinking Mangini and Cirillo and .... the human brain can be a merciful thing.
Check me: for Capt Jack's three deals, there's +2.6 for Ryan, +1.5 for Olivo, and +1.8 for Cust ... +5.9 wins, right what we had.
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CRUNCH +120 runs: First off, let's not get bogged in quibbles. Rick's logic is sound -- with the only problem being that baseball isn't. Logical, we mean.
You score 500 runs, you're going to get 100 runs falling out of bed, just because of "regression to the mean." (Yes, "regression to the mean" is a statistical phrase that is fair to use in this context.)
Let's give these other +6 wins a look:
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CRUNCH at 1B: The article has the M's at -14 runs for first base last year. All Smoak has to do is be a league-average player and bang, there's 3.5 wins.
Smoak is young, athletic and a hand-eye guy. Certainly, baseball's scouts are going to pencil Smoak for better defense than the Cabrera's, Konerko's and Dunn's of the league. It's not going to take a big year for Smoak to get to +2 wins, not by a long shot. He'll probably wind up with +1 of them just by scooting around on the infield more deftly than his peers.
If not, well, Smoak was on a roughly +20 runs hitting pace last year, with an OBP of only .287. Safeco's a tough place.
.250/.320/.400 has Smoak at +2 wins. C'mon.
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Minor quibble here: the table seems to collate the productivity of an entire position, including subs, for 2010 ... and then comp that to the WAR of a starter in 2011. Forgetting about slip-n-slide from the benchies, maybe? :frets:
Anyway, +3 wins for a young stud like Smoak? Over Casey Kotchman's .280 OBP and 9 homers? Light me up, babe.
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Hot Stove Handwarmer: Smoak spent a month-and-a-half in Tacoma, and after he came back up he batted .340/.421/.580 in 14 games, 57 plate appearances. Any more power and he'd a been Dustin Ackley.
He went from a 3:28 EYE in July to a 7:11 EYE at the end of the year.
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Comments
The problem with projecting W totals through WAR is that its near impossible to get accurate measures on every player through the roster.
Things like RRS happen. On the flipside, things like Carlos Gonzalez can happen.
The bench/scrubs are very unpredictable as well.
LL just did a WAR projection that has us winning 81+ games next year. You go down the the list player by player and its hard to disagree too strongly (expect for maybe a few). The problem is that its impossible to be accurate with so many players involved.
Your "gut" is almost a better way of projecting Win totals than analysis through WAR or projecting Ws based on improvements/downgrades from a previous season.