CRUNCH CF + LF:  Prospect Insider gives +1 win to Gutierrez, vs 2010, and -1 win to Ichiro.  A Mariners Wheelhouse fluctuated push.

Close enough for government work.  We'll sign off.

Ichiro's fielding is given by Fangraphs at +15 runs in 2010 ... only +8 the previous three years in a row.  Ya, you assume that to revert.

But Ichiro hasn't had a year under 4.8 WAR since Mike Hargrove had Manny Ramirez* and age 37 isn't going to be the year he starts.  Kenny Lofton, for example, was exactly the same player between the ages of 34 and 40.  For Ichiro you may need to make that 35 to 45 ?

If you're a Gutierrez fan, you may need to pencil the CF/RF combo for +1 win, rather than a wash...

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CRUNCH LF:  Prospect Insider figures the M's go from -0.5 wins last year, to +1.3 wins with Saunders, calculating that as +0.8 wins (maybe an arithmetic error there).

Left field is the easiest position to fill on the diamond, if you don't count DH, which you don't.

If you are starting at -0.5 wins, then adding only +0.8 wins would be complete incompetence.  You feel me?

Give any general manager five months' of winter, and if he doesn't come up with a below average (+1.5 wins) left fielder, he shouldn't have a job.  It's the equivalent of asking Felix Hernandez to throw a 6-inning quality start.

.................

It's pretty difficult for SSI to believe that the Mariners were below replacement in LF last year, but read it and weep.  Ryan Langerhans saved them from being wayyyy below RLP there.

So, a +1.3 from Mickey Saunders has got to be the Jacks-Or-Better to open.  Which is +2 wins, pretty much.

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CRUNCH the BOTTOM LINE:  Being full of ease and good cheer over the upgrades at 2B (SS), C, and DH, it hadn't hit me that 1B and LF probably improve by as much.

Here, let's table that out:

• Catcher ... +20 runs already
• DH ... +20 runs already
• Brendan Ryan ... +20 runs already
• ...
• LF:  Was an incredible -5 runs below replacement; +20 runs would be minimal competence
• 1B:  Was -15 runs (!!) below RLP; we gave Cliff Lee to get a kid who can +30 that

Okay, what time can Ackley get here?  I'll take twelve games, Chuck.

.................

Of course, adding +12 wins to a 61-101 team doesn't exactly leave the Rangers with social anxiety disorder.  But if you can get the team OPS+ from 79 to 95, then we'll take our chances in putting together a Felix-Pineda pitching staff that can carry the club.

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Hot Stove Handwarmer:  If anybody forgot the final numbers (I did) ... Ackley finished 20 games in the AFL with a line of .... let it sizzle a minute ... .424/.581/.758.

26 walks vs. 11 strikeouts.  A Ted Williams EYEline.  :- )   With 4 homers and 10 doubles in 1/8 a season.

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Looks good in December,

Dr D