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The opposite field approach is key for Smoak's evolution as a hitter. Its a great thing to see.
I wish I was more of a homer in our AL-only draft. :-)
The LH Smoak has Junior's Power to LF
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Image from HitTrackerOnline.com. G-Money was impressed by Smoak's lefty homer into the LF bullpen:
Power to RCF the last few games for Smoak as a lefty. Double off the wall and a no-doubt HR to the dead side of the ball field in cold weather when the ball shouldn't fly.
He's coming around on his greed problem. ;)
Smoak: .275/.388/.475/.863 with 5 doubles and 1 HR in 12 games, with 8BB and 9K in 40 ABs.
That's about what I'd want to see from him in a really good first run around the league, and I think he's just getting started. A-Gone posted a .862 OPS his first full season at age 24. Smoak should have a lower average but higher OBP, so that washes. If "all" we got was that, I'd be satisfied.
Cust is the guy who's just bombing right now. I didn't want Smoak to be forced to carry the offense, so adding Cust was at least a modicum of MOTO talent helping out...but he's being VERY unhelpful at the moment. I'm glad he can take a walk or we'd get less than nothing out of him the first 2 weeks of the season.
I don't want Bradley and Smoak to have to carry my offense, but beggars can't be choosers. The promising start by Smoak, even as he works through the bumps in the road, has to be encouraging.
HR by Ackley last night, btw - once he gets those wheels on the ground and gets up here we can start getting our offense aligned for the future.
~G
Smoak's blast to LF untied a tie game, and we replayed his swing quite a few times. We'll spare you the usual bullet list, but --- > his swing was a loud echo of the young Ken Griffey Jr's homers to the off field.
Ssmoak's sswing had many things in common with Griffey's when he used to hit those. The flight of the ball was shaped the same way, also ... the homer was to straightaway LF, it was 80' high according to HTO, it cleared the "carport" and almost hit the chain-link fence, travelling 373 x 79 feet.
It occurred in cold weather, and I don't remember Junior hitting any that were any farther to straightaway LF, do you?
As G notes, Smoak a few days before also just missed a homer to deep LCF, about 380 feet away, that hit the fence just a foot or two short.
The LH Smoak appears to have Junior's power to left. That's sayin' a lot.
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=== Dr's Diagnosis ===
The mortar shot to LF was a welcome confirmation of Smoak's 40-homer power.
If Tom Wilhelmsen threw a 101 fastball, or Josh Lueke did the same thing, that one pitch would affect their entire evaluation. Same thing when a young power hitter blasts a no-doubter to the off field. There aren't many hitters in the game who can put that kind of a swing onto a quality pitch.
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Smoak's .275/.388/.475 slash line looks pretty nice. Looks are deceiving: in Safeco, it's sensational. His OPS+ is 150.
David Ortiz ran a 145 OPS+ in Fenway in 2003 and 2004; his slash line was 300/380/600. Smoak's 275/390/475 wins as many games in Safeco as Ortiz' 300/380/600 does in Fenway. If Smoak did no more than this, the rest of the season, he'd be one of the AL's twenty best hitters.
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Love the AGone comp. The more so since AGone was not a lightning-quick starter; he didn't land with a huge splash. He was a worker, like Smoak, and he did some learning to get to where he is.
San Diego is a mondo tough park too, and in 2007-2008 his statline shows us the dream scenario for Smoak the next few years:
- 2007: 126 OPS+ ... 280/350/500 ... 30 HR, 100 RBI, 101 R
- 2008: 139 OPS+ ... 280/360/510 ... 36 HR, 119 RBI, 103 R
And then in 2009, of course, AGone followed up on his 2H 2008 by going nuts: 280/400/550 with a 162 OPS+ and 40 homers with 119 walks.
But it looks like Justin Smoak may walk more than the young AGone. Smoak may lead the league in walks one of these days. They're real scared of him already, and he will not swing at a ball. He's looking at 100 walks this year if he's not careful.
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BABVA,
Dr D
Comments
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than A-Gone, at least early-career A-Gone. He just is. Adrian Gonzalez was in the Paul Konerko sort of hitter for me - doesn't walk as much as he should given his strengths, but still does plenty of damage. The last couple of years Gonzalez has gone to another level, walking far more and punishing mistakes a bit better. He looks like he's climbed out of that hitter family - a learner, as you said.
I'm having trouble with Smoak's "family" of hitter. Is he Thome-class? Will he swing at more pitches and bump his Ks up in order to max out his power scale?
Being a switch-hitter, he shouldn't run the giant splits that Thome or even A-Gone have. I can't even imagine a Thome batter with no same-handed weaknesses.
I don't think he's gonna club like Thome, though. Line-drive percentage, swing plane...not really Thome-like. The comp that is always made is the lazy one - Teixeira. But you look at Teix's career and what Smoak looks like, and think, "Can Smoak put up a .900 OPS against lefties and righties, hit 40 doubles and 35 HRs a year, have a decent power-hitter average and play good D?"
Yeah. I'd like to think he can, scarily enough. Not this year, but soon.
That stupid Teixeira comp is the one that makes sense. Sometimes lazy can still be right, I guess.
And if Smoak decides to walk a hundred times a year, as A-Gone has, instead of Teix's 80...oof.
He's got a loooot of ground to cover before we even get to that point, but right now Smoak's revving his engine in the early season and making Jack look good on that Lee trade. Here's to several more months like these past 2 weeks for him, as he continues to grow right before our eyes.
~G
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Heh. I've gotten in the habit of staying far away from Mariners. Last year I REALLY wanted to pick up Pineda with my last couple dollars in our keeper league, said to myself "stop being a homer," and went with Drabek. I like Drabek, but man...
Meanwhile, my own Caffenated Confines partner was scooping up both Smoak AND Ackley. Now there is a man with convictions.
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Smoak's struggles when he was traded and his tinkering in the minor leagues to fix his hand load and shorten his path to the ball really impressed me. His game-to-game learning is impressing me as well.
His swing is pretty. It's not the fastest swing in the world but he hits the ball sharply. The ball jumps off the bat. And as he maintains his batting eye and starts expanding his game at the plate (hitting to the opposite field, pulling with power on inside pitches, etc) it should be fun.
He's already shown he can adjust in just the few months he's been here. As the league pins him down and develops a book on him, I'd think he can adjust again.
Growth in hitters is a beautiful thing - and rare as hen's teeth around here.
~G
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... and yet even a 150 OPS+ only looks like 280/380/480 in Safeco. Which doesn't exactly win a roto title at 1B.
I wish Chuck would sign off on changing those fences. Baseball purism is a wonderful thing, but this offense is strangling in its own blood.
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It is wild to see young players getting better due to coaching, eh? Smoak and Saunders both get extra coaching, change some things up with their swing and...get better? I hope it's a sign of things to come.