Seattle Sports Insider

J.J. Hardy

Posted by

6/19/09

Roto champ Taro-san sez:

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How about JJ Hardy Doc? It might be the PERFECT time to buy low on him with Yunel Escobar breathin over his shoulders and the slow start offensively.

I don't necesarily think that the bat is going to translate at Safeco in the AL, but all we're asking for is a 700-750 OPS with tremendous defense. Isn't that what a lot of people were fantasizing about with Betancourt?

If we're in buying mode, Hardy is a SERIOUS upgrade over Yuni. We're talking 4.5-5 wins or so over a full season. He could be our Gutierrez at at an even more valuable position.

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Make it so, number one. Another Brew acquisition? I wonder if Capt Jack's eyes give the nod of approval on Hardy's glittering d-stats.

D-O-V/MC consensus is jelling towards the idea of getting an Omar-style anchor for the infield defense, positioning you to flip Beltre (the consensus doesn't want to see what the next number is in Beltre's Safeco travails).

Hardy's bad start has him at .216/.297/.339, and RotoWire notes that he just went through an 0-for-28. "Buy Low" is champ's reaction to this slow start, and we concur. Even if Safeco zaps Hardy's 25 homers, I'm looking at him as a glove whiz and the offense is a bonus.

Ironically, JJ Hardy *is* precisely what Yuniesky Betancourt dreamed of being: 25 homers, 30 doubles, and defense worth paying to see.

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What would the Brewers want? We'd love to ask, but fear the price. I can easily see them asking for three of our best-and-brightest, selling Hardy as a budding Craig Biggio-style gold-glover who adds serious offense into the bargain. (Biggio was actually Hardy's age-23 comp, per b-ref.com.)

Hardy would be wunnerful, but you've got to be prepared to commit to him long-term, and to do that you've got to factor in that he's a bad hitting match for the park.

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Still and all, as Bill James would say, you've got to have a catcher. The Mariners need a good shortstop.

All glove SS's are going to be smallish and right-handed. The Mariners may just have to accept the Safeco hit on whichever RH, 180-lb shortstop they go with. Would *you* give up Michael Saunders, Juan Ramirez and Alex Liddi to get a shortstop you could win a pennant with?

Good stuff,

Dr D

Comments

Hardy's Defense

Hardy's been all over the place on defense though never below average. Not sure where Taro is getting 4.5-5 wins from...Betancourt is a 1-win fielder, Hardy is probably a 3-3.5-win fielder (above average but not spectacular)...Betancourt is a 1-2 win bat before this season, Hardy might turn out to be a 4-win bat if Safeco doesn't kill him.
Things to like about Hardy: he certainly plugs the infield defensive hole, he'll be reasonably dangerous on the road, and draws 3.9 P/PA...something the Mariners need rather badly.

Using you're scale the

Using you're scale the difference between Hardy and Betancourt is 4-6.5 Ws over a full season. Thats a bigger range than I suggested. lol
Regarding his D, its hard to get a handle since I haven't really seen him play so I'm relying on numbers. Bill James' plus/minus and UZR absolutely LOVE him. PMR had him as the best SS in the NL last year. RZR likes him.
Whats interesting is that most of the systems have him improving defensively in the past few years. I wonder if hes learned positioning or if its just a fluke?
I can't make a defintive judgement on that without seeing him, but he certainly looks at least above-average glancing the stats.

I wonder if something like

I wonder if something like Halman, Juan Ramirez, and Alex Liddi would get it done?

++ he'll be reasonably

++ he'll be reasonably dangerous on the road ++
That's a good point. I keep forgetting that the M's play 81 away from Safeco. ... course, you have the long-term effects on righties... still, all your SS's are going to be righty, unless you get a little switch-hitter who isn't going to do much anywhere...
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BP's RATE stat gave Hardy a 114 last year, IIRC, and when PMR likes you that well (along with UZR) my default assumption becomes that you are awfully slick with the glove.
Like we sez, Capt Jack would know...

Maybe not. But according to

Maybe not. But according to Baseball America, that's like our #1 org prospect, our #2 pitcher, and a hotshot in the low minors, right?
If you start having to cough up Clement, Triunfel, etc I probably fold out of the pot. JJ Hardy ain't Erik Bedard.

I didn't say it, but I thought it :- )

The fact that your metrics, Matt, advise caution on Hardy's glove is significant to me. I notice also that his RF/9's aren't going to knock you over.
I know doodly about the NL, so...

My own metrics...

...certainly suggest that Hardy is above average in the field...I don't want to give the wrong impression. It's just hard for me to believe he's the next coming of Omar Vizquel when we have generally one season where the PBP metrics all like him and a lot of ups and downs in the data. He'll certinaly be worth the upgrade if we can get him without giving up more than one of the Saunders/Clement/Triunfel group...they can have some second tier guys...but I would want to limit it to one of the big names. Preferably Clement.

Ya, but I take Saunders over

Ya, but I take Saunders over Halman at this point.. This being a buyer's market I wouldn't be suprised if it costed even less.

Its really hard to say

Its really hard to say without watching him play, but I wouldn't be suprised if he were more "above-average" than "elite" defensively.
Its also possible that hes improved the past two seasons as all the metrics seem to point out. Maybe we could hit up some Brewer fan sites?

Got any links?

My web searches for Brewer-centric blogs and forums is coming up with a lot of not-very-well-traveled and outdated material...I'm not finding much of an online community for the Brew Crew. I guess I'm spoiled following the Mariners - a team that is either the second or third most "wired" franchise in baseball in terms of the online readership (Boston and the Yankees having similarly active communities, though one might question the intellectual quality).
If anyone knows of a good Brewers blog...do let me know.

Hardy's D

Here's how Brewer fans rated him and his ranking among shortstops according to Tango's Fan Scouting Reports:

2005: 70
2006: 75 (8th out of 41)
2007: 63 (17th out of 48)
2008: 68 (17th out of 63)

That seems to suggest he is above average but nothing special.

Hardy

Hardy would be a keeper, not just a gap filler. A move like this would be timely with Beltre's surgery this week. We wouldn't have to have so many Belanger bats in the lineup, oh wait, Hardy would need to start hitting like, well, Hardy. OK, Z, git'er done.