I also think it is a positive that he has had quick success with this new delivery. It is always nice to have immediate postiive feedback. The delivery seemed to be hit-or-miss since he tried it out. I am sure, looking at the results of the "twist" games, he will be able to take a look at the video and see what things physically he was doing different to get the +2 MPH and deception on his FB.
I don't know anything about aikido, spirals, or the infinite universe...but i wonder if that trademarked, secret M's training/lifting program will help him get additional strength and rotation while twisting during the rotation. Didn't Vargas used to throw 95? i remember some talk of that.
Probably no way he gets it up to 95, but maybe with an offseason of work specifically preparing for the twist could get him to 90 and occasionally 91. He's a different guy (like Fister's jump this year) at 91 than he is at 88.
Spec sez,
How about this guy [as a candidate for 1H 2012]. In Sept.
5 GS, 31.2 IP, 2.84 ERA, 1.14 WHIP
0.3 HR/9, 2.6 BB/9, 7.7 K/9
It's Jason Vargas with "the twist." I think he'll be cheaper than any FA, and if the the twist makes him a 7-K/9 lefty, then he's probably just as good.
Dr. D has been a fan of The Pitching Twist since this 1980's pitcher, who for 3-4 years was the only good pitcher the Seattle Mariners had. Later, this pitcher proved to us that you could not only pitch well with the twist, but could also function as THE best pitcher in baseball.
As a completely separate issue, aikido is stuffed with spiritual mumbo-jumbo about the place of the spiral in nature, from DNA through whirlpools up through spiral galaxies.
Koichi Barrish sensei, at Kannagara in Granite Falls, was particularly obsessed with the spiral. We ate, lived and breathed spirals up there. (Yes, it's true, if a guy throws a big slow drunken right hand, and you time it right, you can throw him 10 feet across the room and out the window with a Seagal-style spiral. Seagal can execute those moves in real life -- against drunks.)
Suffice it to say that, yes, a spiral is one of nature's purest forms of power. Ask a shot-putter or hammer tosser.
Quarterbacks don't have the time, on the clock, to spiral. But baseball pitchers hold the ball. They should most of 'em spiral, like Tim Lincecum does.
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Q. How well is Vargas, personally, integrating the twist?
A. It's off-and-on. At times I've been appalled: he (1) shows his numbers to the hitter, (2) turns his shoulder back around perpendicular, and then (3) begins to accelerate the ball.
That's no good. It doesn't make any difference to tuck your shoulder, if you're going to untuck it before you get torsion. In two games (don't remember which ones) Vargas was twisting ... and hitting 87 mph. Statically.
At other times, Vargas has legitimately put the load onto his back muscles, kept the front shoulder turned until he began to accelerate ... and then he hit 89-90 with superb deception.
That was the way in this last Oakland game, which we watched. Those 10 strikeouts weren't by no blinkin' accident. He'd throw 89, on the black, and the Oakland hitters looked simply blindfolded. Called strike three.
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Q. How well will it be implemented, for 1H 2012?
A. His motion genuinely meshes well with the dynamic spiral. He pitched well with it in his very first game.
An aiki sensei would assume that Vargas should be up to speed -- loading his back consistently -- after spring training next year.
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Q. How much benefit can you legitimately assume?
A. Well, Vargas has demonstrated +2 mph. As Fister did.
It also seems to camoflage "tells" in the head and shoulders, to turn them away from the hitter. The dynamic spiral seems to "sell" the fake-FB changeup.
I don't care for Jason Vargas. He's not my kind of pitcher. But objectively speaking, this shoulder tuck has already given every indication of taking his game up a level.
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Q. Is SSI concerned about Vargas' "finish" to 162-game seasons?
A. Not too much. Because:
- It was the M's fault that they let him pile up 7 near-CG's in a row in July-August
- He's having a great September, with the dynamic spiral
- He's been worth $21.0M the last two years
- 1H vs 2H splits are a minor, not major, consideration compared to the $21.0M stat
You can't kick a $10M pitcher to the curb because he's going to cost $5M. The talk of non-tendering Vargas is way off the mark.
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Q. Leaving him where, in SSI's skeptical view?
A. Lots of MC/SSI readers have viewed Jason Vargas as sort of a modern-day Jimmy Key. I always thought that was over the top.
But, at minimum, Vargas' plusses are indisputably:
- He's a soft-tosser above Shandler's 5.6 strikeout line
- He's a tremendous match for his home park
- He has a changeup that is a fearsome weapon
- He has piled up 5.0 WAR in 2010-2011
He went into 2012 as a proven #4 starter in the American League. There's a whale of a lot of guys who aren't.
Doug Fister's plateau leap was discerned by SSI after his 3rd and 4th starts of the 2012 season. Though we do so with less gusto, we've got to admit that Vargas is showing almost as much evidence of a plateau leap, now, as Fister did then.
.......
If Jason Vargas were a Texas Ranger, I'd be very concerned that this shoulder turn / dynamic spiral has lifted Vargas into actual Jimmy Key, Mark Buehrle territory.
There's potential for even more. In September, Vargas' 8k, 2bb, 0hr results -- and his stuff -- raises the question of whether he could post five years as Jamie Moyer.
He has been a solid 2.5 WAR number 4 starting pitcher .... he looks like he very well may upsell to Mark Buehrle, and he's raised the question of whether he has become Jamie Moyer.
You've got to assume his spot in the 2012 rotation, or you've got to get a big return for him in trade. The latter's not out of the question. GM's can read September splits, too.
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BABVA,
Dr D
Comments
Vargas on staff makes room for two back end starters.
Now, we've all heard favorable rumors of Walker/Campos/Paxton/Hultzen and the like, and I'm as ready as the next guy to be overjoyed at their success, but we've been disappointed in the past.
Remember this time last year. The dynamic late inning men for the Tacoma Raineers killed the PCL and everyone was talking about them (Mr. Leuke especially) as if they were the next Craig Kimbrel (except back then was before Craig Kimbrel).
We got our wish, and these two made the Mariner's roster. Our wish lasted approximately 1 month. We turned on Leuke and Cortes the moment they blew it in the A.L., and now we don't talk about them very much any more, even though they might have promising baseball careers. Brandon Morrow was similarly hyped. Then there was Travis Blackley, Clint Nageotte, and other guys I can't remember.
The point is, that the Mariners lineup might really be something next year. Carp looks good. Smoak looks good, Ackley looks good. You can optimistically pencil in the 6-7-8-9 guys for 20 home runs each. These aren't your Gutierrez-Kotchman-Lopez-Griffey Mariners.
Similarly, the Mariners bullpen looks good for next year. Brandon League is getting new tattoos this off season, the DA is coming back, and we have a substitute teacher with a gyroball (its always good to perpetuate internet myths), and a bunch of other big guys with lightning arms.
The team isn't very far from success. What will kill any of our pipe dreams is a rash of bad starts from rattled rookie starters.
I think that Vargas and Beaven have earned their jobs for next year. The jury is still out on Furbush, and Vasquez has been declared guilty and needs to be remanded back into custody.
What's wrong with keeping the fifth spot open for the best of the fab four, sending the rest to Tacoma, and then switching things up if sustained success requires it?
Doc, don't you think it also says something about loyalty as you seek to rebuild from within. A guy proves himself over time, why always go for the name at a higher price (with potentially lower value)? Clubhouses can make a difference over long baseball seasons. Building into that pays dividends in my meager opinion!
Good finish for Vargas. Didn't he start off great...tail off and then make a mini-comeback? Was velocity consistent throughout the season?
According to Buster Olney Vargus cleared waivers the middle of last month. Diamondbacks? At any rate I think he's available. If so, we're looking at a complete strip down of the pitching staff. The team may as well keep dealing. The pieces from the Bedard & Fister deal won't impact for a couple of years anyhow. Reelin' with the feelin' don't stop continue.
Dr. D, could you explain the following?
If the spiral adds to Vargas’s power – velocity of his pitches. How does the quietness (lack on any visual spiral loading) of a Wells / Catricala not rob them of their power (as you had detailed in an earlier post). Link is a video of a Catricala homerun illustrating the point that it does not look to me that he is physically prepared to swing the bat with any force behind it.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j4MnMyTSxwY&feature=related
Perhaps it does rob them of power or better phrased it will. Since both Wells and Catricala are fairly young players they still have that youthful explosiveness to compensate for the lack of loading but perhaps as they reach their early 30’s the level of their play could will fall much quicker as did Sexon’s.