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Hot Stove started early :- ) ...
I think everybody can rewrite their offseason plans to include Wilson's $8M at SS next year, and go from there...
Jack Wilson, Test of Faith
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=== Blending the SABR In? Like Vermouth In a Martini ===
Let's face it here. There is no WAR/$ path to justifying an extension and raise for Jack Wilson. Let's look at the picture honestly and clearly, regardless of our affection for the regime.
At best, Wilson's OPS+ will be in the 80's, right? Does ANYbody here think that Wilson could OPS+ 100? Course not.
At best, Wilson's defensive runs saved can be banked at -15-20, maybe 25, right? That's if you grant all of the questionable (not dubious; questionable) assumptions about defensive metrics.
At best, Wilson almost earns his salary, if everything breaks right. That is the definition of a lousy $/WAR play. When you've got a 30-something mediocrity and the very best-case is for him to earn his salary, well, that kinda decision has been the whipping-boy for BP analysts since 1995.
*edit to add, if Wilson is actually tearing up his $8.4M salary for 2010 and playing two years for about that, then Wilson's performance range of $1-8M is a nice flex over a $5M annual salary. -- Jeff.
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But in my view, this whole extension deliciously illustrates the fact that, as Bill James acidly put it, we do not have near-perfect measurements of baseball players. It is foolish to assume that we do.
Zduriencik loves baseball period, and if you love baseball, you love Jack Wilson. Wilson is a dyed-in-the-wool hardball player, a player much better than his numbers indicate. Jack Wilson is just the kind of shortstop you win a pennant with.
=== Dr's Prognosis Dept. ===
Will we see Jack Wilson's bat rebound? Sabermetrically, you'd be awfully worried for these reasons:
1) Age 32 is a grrrrreat year for hitters like Jack Wilson to be done anyway. Compare our age-arc piece on Orlando Hudson, who is the same age, and a much better hitter.
2) Wilson's 0.50 EYE in the NL took a swan dive - header into 6:17 in the American League. You don't want shortstops with cut-down swings whose EYES are in the 0.30's.
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There is one great reason to believe that Wilson will be able to hit for a (say) 75 OPS+ in Safeco: Jack Zduriencik and Don Wakamatsu think he will.
With an extension, Capt Jack is flatly stating that the age and AL failure don't matter -- that Wilson's injuries were the problem in 2009 and, trust him, Wilson will be fine with the bat.
Raising an info-taining question: how much do you believe in the man? Do you trust his judgment more than you trust your own?
Capt Jack thought Ronny Cedeno would hit. Is this an NL Central bias, or is it cool-headed judgment based on having watched Wilson play? I imagine it's the latter, that the Mariners are aware of injury issues and the ways in which those injuries prevented Wilson from swinging the bat normally.
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The Jack Wilson extension fails the mainframe crunch, at least pending news of a heavy hometown discount. But I'm half-expecting Zduriencik's wisdom to trump the numbers on Wilson's extension.
I'm glad to hear that Jack Wilson will hit. I flat enjoy watching him play baseball.
Cheers,
Dr D
Comments
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I'm willing to bet his extension is 2 years, 6 mil per with a club option on a third year. And maybe performance bonuses tied to playing time.
Wilson will take a paycut...bank it.
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One quibble ... Z didn't think Cedeno could hit. Z thought Cedeno was a cheap stoploss fallback for a shaky youngster who had shown no signs of development for a several years. Cedeno was not, (like Endy), pulled in and shoved ahead of the incumbent. Cedeno came in and rode the pine until injuries and incompetence "forced" him into the lineup. At best, I think you could argue that Z felt Cedeno was a better option (as a backup), than Willie B.
I suspect that Z might have held some faint hope that Cedeno might take a step forward, (instead of two back), but the take that rings true with me was that Z was swapping out a journeyman backup with no remaining upside for a journeyman backup who was still young enough that there might be a little untapped potential.
How often is it really, that you trade for someone you're "high" on, (insert your personal definition of 'high' as you desire), and trade him away by the deadline?
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I do agree that Jack Wilson will be the starting SS for the Ms in 2010. I'm still leaning toward an extension of some kind to spread out the financial bite. My first take was a 4/5/6 progression (with the third year including a buyout). But, I think considering how dreadfully bad the SS market happens to be, (and a belief that the worst of the salary suppression is behind us), that might be a tad low. Think 5/6/7 might be closer to the mark. It's important to understand that the bulk of buyout/extensions lead to a TOTAL larger than the original, (even if the yearly is lower). Trading 8 million guaranteed for 15-18 guaranteed isn't JUST giving up something - it's getting something in return.
We must remember that while Z gets first crack at Jack Wilson, the only thing TRULY in his control is the choice between buyout or pay the $8 million. So, the question is -- what kind of a deal could Jack Wilson get on the open market today -- with a dreadfully thin position, where few are available on the open market?
And yeah, Doc -- I was quietly with you on Hardy. I think Jack Wilson is less likely to fold up (production-wise) in 2010 than Hardy, given their historical trendlines. The big question mark with JW (for me) is health.
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I doubt that Z & Wak really harbor confidence that JW's bat will be all that great.
I think Z is just looking at his options and realizing that JW is about the best he can do in the short term. He embodies an elite level of defense with a historically consistent if unspectacular bat; coming off injury and 9 years of living in Pirate land, there's a reasonable if small chance that he'll show some life with the stick.
So - in marked contrast to previous regimes - they commit themselves, and forge on like Matt Foley with a Positive Mental Attitude. Let's hope JW's bat doesn't stay in a van down by the river.
-glmuskie
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2 x $5M, including Zduriencik's comments about two years ... Wilson makes good sense as a bridge player in this market.
That's not to say that Wilson's not Zduriencik's kind of player, right.
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I think Z might prefer a little more sting in the ole' bat from Jack Wilson...or some kind of useable projectable offensive skill. He seems to hate see-ball-hit-ball guys like Betancourt and Wilson. But in terms of character, he's definitely a Zduriencik player...hard nosed and solid in the clubhouse, plays with joy and enthusiasm that is infectious...great defender, etc.