HQ's SPD - Ichiro Prognosis

Dr. D's eyes are forced to agree that Ichiro, as he moved into his age 35-37 seasons, has lost the lightning-crack immortality that has allowed him to dazzle ... even other major leaguers ... with his physical explosiveness.  Hey, even Michael had to adapt at 37.

What next?  Well, Scenario A is that Ichiro goes from HOF level to --- > being a "very good" player.  Considering defense, baserunning, as well as his leadoff hitting.

But there's a Scenario B.  In 2009, Ichiro had already lost some physical explosiveness, but had one of his best seasons, 5.7 runs per game offensively, and +5.0 WAR.

Here, let's chart Ichiro's runs above replacement, and his VALUE:

  • 2006:  +57 runs, $20M salary earned
  • 2007:  +57 runs, $23M
  • 2008:  +40 runs, $18M
  • 2009:  +50 runs, +23M 
  • 2010:  +46 runs, +19M

Ichiro bashers, who imagine that he isn't a great player, are focusing too much on what he can't do, and they are forgetting that Ichiro has had to hit in Safeco Field his entire career.

Year after year, Ichiro has created 40-60 runs above RLP, just like Jay Bruce, Adrian Gonzalez and Miguel Cabrera.

..................

Scenario B again?  That was selecting two or three of his five tennis swings to suit his age, and evolving into a different kind of 50-run player.

In 2009, Ichiro had a great year by upping two things:  infield hits, and home runs.

As Ichiro ages into his 37-38-39 seasons, will he resume his 2001 game, topping the ball and beating out infield hits?  Will he look to drive 10-12 balls a year out of the park, rather than five?

Based not on partiality, but based on an observation of Ichiro's intelligence, the instinct here is yes.  Probably we're about to see Ichiro morph as a ballplayer.

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Cranklin

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