Q.  What has happened to the plus-plus curve?

A.  Nothing.  He still has it.  And yes it IS a 70 curve.  C'mon, don't make me come over there.  You're gonna need a Donk if I do.

.............

Wednesday night, it was a bit softer early, but later in the game he snapped off several hellacious David Wells hooks.  The White Sox took them all.  Froze on them.

Still, RRS is young and right now he has fallen in love with his change.  That will tend to diminish the feel for the curve a bit.

I was laughing at several RRS changeups:  he has started to throw it -9 mph, low, outside, sinking -- Monster Reborn on the Jamie Moyer deadfish change.  Moyer's change was vicious enough combined with an 87 fastball.  Combine a Moyer change with a crisp 89-92 fastball and you've got something pretty spectacular.

.

Q.  I still think you're overselling RRS' hook.

A.  That's 'cause you're blind.

;- )

But if you want a second opinion, check the run value on it, please.   Rowland-Smith's curve ball gains his team 2.52 runs per 100 pitches this season, and 1.95 lifetime.

For comparison, Erik Bedard's power curve -- perhaps the best pitch in baseball -- has a lifetime run value of 1.67.

We're not saying Rowland-Smith's hook is better than Bedard's.  It isn't.  But does the 2.52 runs per 100 result get us going in the right direction here?   They haven't been hitting it.  At all.

Rowland-Smith's change-curve comes out of terrific arm action, has powersaw-tight spin on it, and dives like a stukka just as it gets to home plate.  It is plus-plus, end of story.   It's every inch as good as David Wells' ever was.

RRS, like every pitcher except Erik Bedard, throws better curves and worse ones.

.

Q.  So, are Rowland-Smith's results sustainable with 5.1 strikeouts a game?

A.  He'll strike out more than 5.1, period.

He's so confident right now that he's OVER confident, and getting WAY too much of the plate, and it has cut into his strikeouts.  But that will evolve.

...............

But!  Supposing Rowland-Smith DID run 5.1 / 2.3 / 1.0 -- sure, in Safeco that would give a very fine ERA, in front of the fleet OF's that Capt Jack and you guys have voted into office.  :- )

Jarrod Washburn ran a 5.3 / 2.2 / 0.7 template and what was his ERA?  2.64.   Lucky, sure, but don't get stuck on nothing but luck-normalizing.  Jarrod Washburn was superb -- not lucky -- in Safeco with low-5's strikeouts.

If Rowland-Smith ran a 5.1 / 2.3 / 1.0 in Safeco, in front of Ichiro/Guti/Saunders-Ackley, I'd be surprised if his ERA changed much at all from its current 3.59.

But it won't.  Ryan Rowland-Smith has four different ways to strike out star ML hitters.

.

Q.  Here it is.  Hit it.

A.  Rowland-Smith is as confident right now as I've ever seen a young pitcher.  He's grabbing the ball, throwing whatever the catcher puts down, and daring them to do something with it.

They can't.

He's charging the enemy 50-cal fire with chest bared and a knife in his teeth.  Aussie style.  They're firing blanks.

Later on, they'll do a little more than this, and RRS will finesse more.  For right now, enjoy the Here It Is, Hit It phase.  :- )

Cheers,

Dr D