Super post, and comments, from OBF and the crew.  Good on yer, mates.  'ope it's okay if we add our $0.02 ...

  Q.  What has happened to the strikeouts?

A.  If you mean, "what has happened to the ability to strike out batters?," the answer is blinkin' nothin', and that's fair dinkum.

There's such a thing as too many strikes.  

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Q.  How can you throw too many strikes?

A.  Why do you think guys hit .400 on 3-1 and 2-0?  It's nothing more than the hitter knowing that the ball will be over the plate.   On 0-0 the pitch might be six inches outside.  On 2-0 you load up and get ready to swing.

..

Q.  How many strikes has he been throwing?

A.  On my notepad, I had RRS for -- IIRC -- 60 of his first 75 pitches for strikes Wednesday.   60 of 75!!

He'd thrown four straight superb games -- 7 ip, 1bb, 5k type stuff... and then Wednesday he just came out 0-1, 0-2 every blasted hitter.  The guy's getting carried away.  And it's amusing to watch right now.

................. 

If there's one power chord progression we gotta get you guys playing to open every set, it is the I-IV-V, innings-strikeouts-WALKS blues riff, guys.  

Strikeouts to WALKS.  Not strikeouts to innings.  Strikeouts to WALKS is the intro to the song.   ;- )

...............

We look at RRS the last 28 days and see 37 innings, 19 strikeouts, slap me silly that's 4+ K's.  Jarrod Washburn territory.  OHHH NOOOOooooo! ...

The strikeout walk RATIO is 5 to blinkin' 1.

I've got nothing against saying so, if a guy fritzes out.  If you'll recall, we buried RRS back in March and April and YOUSE guys were the one who called RRS to emerge in August-September, voting 60% in a 5-way split that RRS would be the guy to have a big finish.

We buried Vargas when he was running a 3.25 ERA in Safeco.  If Rowland-Smith weren't a good pitcher, we'd say so.

He IS a good pitcher.  A very good one.

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Q.  Low Sample Size?

A.  No.  >:- ] 

In baseball we almost never randomly extract a sample that represents an entire data universe.  We extract a "sample" from one tiny egg cup in the carton -- such as some guy's month out of an evolving 15-year career.

Ask a statistician, as opposed to a sabermetrician, sometime.  We don't "sample" things in sabermetrics.  

Adrian Beltre's 2009 season isn't a "representative sample" of some 12,000-datapoint set in which all points are created equal.  Still less is Matt Tuiasosopo's 2009 play going to "sample" anything.

..................

But:  low sample size, yes.  It applies very strongly to K/9 in one given month.

First of all, any 6-7 strikeout guy might have a month with a low strikeout rate.  It is over the course of 100+ innings that you average those rates.

Just as one example, Andy Pettitte (RRS' comp) had only 34 strikeouts in his first 63 innings this year -- but now sits at over 7.

We gotta be super careful not to ratio these skills numbers over five or ten starts.   RRS has thrown 75 innings since coming back.

Especially you don't bust a guy's chops for 2 strikeouts in a game in which he obviously dominates a lineup, like RRS did against the Sox.  Baseball isn't Strat-O.  The White Sox were trying to take away strike one, and they were putting pitchers' pitches in play, weakly.

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Q.  But you were talking about K/BB...

A.   RRS has 19 strikeouts in the last 37 innings ... and how many walks, mate?

Go look it up, c'mon back.  We'll wait.

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Q.  Meaning what?

A.  Like we sez, we had RRS for -- IIRC -- 60 of his first 75 pitches for strikes Wednesday.   60 of 75!!  It is a bloomin' JOKE the way that RRS is slashing up AL sorority row these days.

Last five starts:  37 IP (more than 7 innings a game) and 4, count 'em, 4 walks.  

The strikeOUTS are 4.5 the last month.  The strikeout walk RATIO is 5 to blinkin' 1.

He's throwing every single pitch to try to get a strike!

And is he getting tatered?  Nay verily.  3 homers in five long games, and very few close calls.  What long fly balls teams get, come after pitch 100.

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Q.  How does [FEW WALKS] add up to a low strikeout rate?

A.  ML hitters strike out on pitches outside the strike zone.

If you want guys to fish and miss, you throw it where they can't reach it.  Rowland-Smith thinks nobody can touch him.  He mixes three superb pitches in the zone, pitch after pitch, and the hitters can't punish him.

Comes the day when RRS decides to get a little less of the plate?  His BB/K goes from 2/5.5 to 3/6.7 again.   Okay?

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Q.  You could say that about Washburn, for a few months there.

A.  Yeah, and Jarrod Washburn was on fire.  If he continued to pitch like that, he'd continue to win like that.  He was out of his mind.

Still, Wash was doing it differently, with a different template.  5.3 strikeouts are a highwater mark for Wash.  5.3 strikeouts is a lowwater mark for RRS. 

The comp doesn't provide useful information.   Washburn doesn't have the choice to move from 2bb, 5k to 3bb, 7k.

RRS does.   Thusly:  RRS' Here It Is, Hit It Phase

BABVA,

Dr D