jug*ger*naut  a huge, overwhelming, inexorable force that crushes whatever is in its path without need for threat assessment or defensive protocol

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Q.  Lot of called strike threes on Friday.

A.  Dave Sims and Dave Valle were marvelling at the "strike threes looking" ... Valle, the ex-catcher, emphasized the dominance this implied.

Look at it this way.  The pro's, notably Eric Wedge, judge a pitcher by how good the swings are against the pitcher -- how much load the hitters get.  So how weak a swing are they getting, if they can't swing?

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Bedard's K ratio has always run ahead of his SwStr% ... saberdudes have always predicted his K ratios to fall because they were supposed to revert to his lower swinging strikes %.

Bedard is one of the few pitchers who, when he is on, locks hitters up, freezes them, gets called strike threes on fastballs.  You could see spasmodic Padres all night long with Erik v2.5.

They swing at the curve and lock up on the fastballs.  Guess which pitch they look for with Good Erik?  You guessed it.  Good Erik has them looking curve first.

Bedard's hook, when it's like it is now, is a horrifying pitch -- one you'll miss by a foot and look bad on.  Bedard getting called strikeouts on FB's is like batters freezing up on Trevor Hoffman's fastball.

...........

... earlier in the year, hitters were comfortable, fouling off his curve too much, and getting good swings.  Not Friday.

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Q.  Did SSI want to see Wedge deny Bedard the complete game, at only 92 pitches?

A.  I was rooting for Wedge to take Bedard out of the ballgame.

Wedge has been just terrific.  He has left Pineda and Fister in, for extra innings, when they were throwing free and easy.  But Erikkk will never throw all that "free and easy" again, not in the Pineda sense.

Wedge was asked whether he was worried that Erikkk had missed his last start.  He was annoyed.  This is a guy you want to get extra rest any time you can, he said.

Erikkk has pitched on long rest several times already -- Wedge applies different thinking to different pitchers.  It reminds me of Whitey Herzog, who'd ride one guy hard and baby another one.  Wedge is doing this.

.......

Back in my day, they had a term.  "Skip a start for that guy once in a while."

You shouldn't ask Bedard for more than about 25, 27 starts and the playoffs.  Why not skip him one start every five-six turns?  Why skip him the last month of the season, with the DL?

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Q.  OK, the game.  How much did it matter that he faced the Padres?

A.  Some, not much.

Look, the Padres are 11 of 16 in the NL in OPS+.   Ten offenses better, five offenses worse.

There are four NL offenses that score fewer runs despite the Padres' home park.  Let's not make them out to be the 2010 Mariners.  They aren't.

...........

Also:  you're going to say a bad offense shouldn't count in the stats.  You also going to say a good one shouldn't count in the stats?  A pitcher's year-end ERA always includes games against both types of teams.

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Still:  there is a difference between (1) a fastball blown by a hitter, because your curve set it up, and (2) a fastball blown by a hitter, because he isn't Miguel Cabrera.

I thought there were three or four heaters that the Padres should have hit, and didn't.  A handful of pitches, I blamed the hitters for not putting on the swings they should have.

Another team might have gotten six hits instead of three.  

But Erik Bedard would have locked down anybody.  Hey, the Rangers, Tigers, and White Sox didn't score on him this month, either, and he didn't throw as well in those games as he did Tuesday.

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Q.  Does the out by Peguero count, or should we figure Bedard for a 2-run performance?

A.  Well, Erikkk came into the game with a 15% homer per outfield fly ratio.  His career average is 9%.

Supposing it had gone ten more feet.  It woulda been one more 2nd-row home run, right?  Another 2nd-row job, that's what woulda been fair, yeah.

Bedard's HR/F is still way unlucky, 14%, and here he was apologizing in the postgame for a single caught fly ball.  

The Pads handcuffed all night, one lousy cotton-pickin' hard-hit ball to the track, and Bedard's talking about the little break he got.  He's been listening to the interviews so much that they've got him trained.  "You won 8-1 tonight, Erik.  What happened on that solo homer?"   :blank stare:

:- )

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Q.  Anything else?

A.  Juggernaut, baby.  As 5th starters go, this guy's a bit of a load.

Three game winning streak, with Pineda and Felix the next two days.  I like baseball.  It makes me happy.

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Be Afraid,

Dr D

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