jug*ger*naut  1. a huge, overwhelming, inexorable force that crushes whatever is in its path without need for threat assessment or defensive protocol  2. any American League rotation comprised of five Opening Day starters

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Q.  Any prereq's to Bedard 301?

A.  Here are three quick reads, that we hope you'll find useful in zero'ing Bedard's position up off the ridge there:

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Bedard vs. Cleveland Technical Diagnosis (April 10) - the consensus was that Bedard was done, in part because he'd lost velocity.  

The SSI report was that Bedard's stuff was 98-100% as good as ever.  We've learned to ignore ERA at year's end, but not at First Homestand's end ....

The mainframe fingered the problemo as Bedard's fastball command (and bad luck and bad ump'ing).  It predicted that Bedard's command would slowly return, and that he'd return to All-Star status at that time.

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State of Bedard (May 3) - Erikkk had started cutting loose during the sixth inning of his April 27th start in Detroit.  ... This post considered the subsequent May 3, seven-inning start against Texas.

Bedard, late in that 4th start, had broken through into Stage 2.0 (of 3 stages), and in this 5th start he maintained stage 2.0 all the way through.

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BABVA (March 13) - Not sure what it has to do with predicting pitcher outcomes, but we thought we'd mention it anyway ...

Did you pull up a chair and watch closely?   ::bwahahahaaaa::

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Q.  Okay, what is Stage 2 for Bedard and what is Stage 3?

A.  Stage 1 was his stiff, mechanical, fearful, no-command stage.

Stage 2 was (is) the period during which he throws some of his pitches free and easy.  (During the May 20 wipeout of the Pads, he threw about 60-70% of his pitches that way.)

Stage 3 will be the period during which he throws all of his pitches free and easy.

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Q.  What is a free-and-easy Bedard pitch?

A.  If you have to use checkpoints, which we hate, but okay... From the CF camera, you can tell a natural Bedard pitch because:

• His rock back is slower and more deliberate (golf "takeaway" is smoother as he turns his back)
• His turn around the corner has controlled acceleration to it
• Often he gives the ball a little pat into the glove during the windup
• His back cleat comes up about butt-high, and faces the sky
• His back foot comes around much farther, well past the rubber
• His pitching fingers have an extra little snap to them
• After the pitch is gone off his hand, he relaxes his shoulders and steps quickly out of fielding position
• His tempo and rhythm are confident and not labored
• His command is razor-sharp

When he's physically laboring, it's just the null of all those things.  His back foot doesn't come up much, his pitching hand finishes with no life, etc etc.

And the result is that his fastball doesn't have that painful sting to it.

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Q.  Sting, huh...

A.  Erikkk's game, when he is right:

• The curve ball snaps in for a perfect, low called strike
• The fastball stings the mitt at any of the four edges of the zone
• Erik uses pitchability and sequences to get way into the batters' heads

It's only a subtle difference between AAA and ML, and only a subtle difference between 100 ERA+ and All-Star.  

It's like an NBA shooter going 3-for-15 or 8-for-15.  How much did Kobe miss those shots by, on a bad night?  Does Bad Kobe miss the rim by two feet?

Trust me, gentlemen.  When Bedard is finishing off his release, when he has all his weapons, that guy can't be hit.  He's still got 2006-09 in his brain and in his arm.

You haven't quite seen the real Bedard.  But if he stays healthy, he's liable to be the M's best pitcher in the second half.

Well, you know what we mean.  He's liable to be anybody else's best pitcher.

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Q.  Any factoids to prove you're right?

A.  Bedard stowed his changeup in a deep, dark place on Friday.  I approve of this.

He threw his changeup only 5 pitches all night, "reverting" to the Randy Johnson two-pitch arsenal.

He threw 52 fastballs, 35 soul-murdering hooks, and 5 changeups.  65 strikes, 27 balls.  That's 3 called balls per inning, all night long.  How many balls to walk a batter?

Bedard went to his curve and heater because he was feelin' it.  The changeup is something that an aging, innings-eater resorts to.

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By the way, of his 5 changeups, the Peguero catch was one of them.

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Q.  Anything else?

A.  Just noticed that this F/X chart off Fangraphs confirms the subjective impression from April 27:

For example, notice that the yellow changeups were fading 3" armside in his first three starts -- but in starts 4-5, what SSI had reported as the pivot point, the armside run is 7-8 inches... and in his last two starts, it's way up to 10 inches.

Seem like a small difference?  No, Erikkk tripled the armside run on his change by finishing off the fingersnap at the very end of the pitch.

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Also notice the increasing glove-side movement on his curve - from 3" in his first start to 8" now.  Starts 4 and 5 were the transition point, as we had surmised from watching his motion subjectively.

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If you check the vertical dive on his pitches, the changes were (remembering that ML fastballs rise 9-10 inches):

• His change went from 2-5" sink (vs FB) early, to 10" now
• His FB went from no sink at all early, to 3" sink now
• His curve has also been diving an extra 3" the last three starts

F/X doesn't capture the "bite" - just the overall 60-foot movement.  But it reflects more than enough pitch movement, to confirm Bedard's evolution as an objective fact.

M's fans can clink their coffee mugs around the water cooler.  Erik's back - almost.

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