My allergic reaction to the term conspiracy is that I presume it is referring to many people working in covert operations to achieve an agenda (be it nefarious or not) without there collective efforts being easily determined.
That some fraction of Christian Americans would want wide spread biblical teaching in public schools is not a conspiracy -- it is clearly true.
Perhaps this is too easy, but the reason why I don't take peoples concern about Obama's American citizenship is because of how wide spread the cover-up would need to be and how unlikely it would be that this diverse range of individuals could be aligned with a common agenda.
Regarding Tacoma Rain's comments, of course Z has an agenda. This could either be to say to the the ticket buying public, "Look, I'm trying, I really am!" Or maybe it is an attempt to shame Upton with bad press into accepting the trade? Or communicate to other teams how hard it will be to out bid the M's? Or maybe MLB has a desire to not let the Uptons of the world get their way by intransigence and this is the way Z communicates to the MLB suits that they make a more than reasonable offer? Whatever it is, I agree something is up.
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=== Plot Spoiler and Caveat Emptor ===
Here there be philosophy, ethics, and politics, as they relate to business and baseball. If that's not your thing, you might wish to click on past this one.
Tacoma Rain axs,
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Guys - hang in there with me on this, cuz' I'm really not trying to prove Bigfoot killed Oswald here....
The Mariners are always tight lipped about everything. Right? EVERYTHING. But the M's are ALWAYS - NO COMMENT - on any trades proposals, ESPECIALLY the ones that do not work. Jack has made it a point NEVER to include names.
Yet for THIS trade proposal, we know EVERY name.
Now at first we would say, yeah but the Diamondbacks are in volved too, so Towers is talking... BUT this story is on the Mariner's web site. This story is on Shannon's blog. This story has even had Jack himself talk about it. AND we know EVERY name. It's like the Mariner's are broadcasting this story... and the Mariners are fanning the flames too, by trying to keep people talking about this story.
Harold Reynolds is talking up the fact that UPTON does NOT want to come to Seattle EVER? Harold Reynolds, MLB TV Host.
What is going on?...
The only thing that makes ANY sense to me is that Jack is doing this to get the attention of the MLB or the commissioner.
I am sure there are reasons to do this... like take pressure off the Marlins so they can make a trade, or get a first round draft pick next year, or ???
I am open to your suggestions and comments.
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=== Talking Points ===
1. Conspiracies do occur.
Some how, some way, at some date, the modern American press was able to stigmatize this phrase "conspiracy theory." Just the mention of the phrase is enough to falsify any protest against a political agenda.
There is a rich, complex set of arguments -- on both sides -- available on the subject of gun control. The NRA sincerely fears an agenda to completely disarm the American populace and in the NRA's view, this could lead to a totalitarian government riding herd over its citizens with impunity.
Most NRA members don't particularly feel like they need 30-round magazines for their rifles, but what they do feel like, is that some segments of American society are trying to incrementally work towards a situation in which no American legally owns a gun at all.
Very often the logical retort against the NRA consists of --- > laughter, pointing, and "Look at the conspiracy theorists!" And very often this retort is completely effective.
How many U.S. senators and representatives would like to see private gun ownership outlawed? Of course there are some. Why, then, respond to the NRA's protest with Conspiracy Theory Kook ridicule? Why not simply make the case that citizens should not own guns?
It's not about right wing or left wing, as such. The left wing might oppose prayers at school assemblies not because a 30-second prayer is so repugnant, but because of its fear of an underlying agenda -- that the right wing, if left unopposed, would saturate the K-12 system with Bible education. And that's a concern well founded. Many on the right actually would do this, if it were possible.
Why then ridicule the left over its concerns that an agenda exists? An agenda does exist. Those who deny the existence of the agenda are being dishonest, but they're being effectively dishonest. The "Conspiracy Theory" accusation wields tremendous power in our society. Too much power.
I know nobody asked me, but if anybody did, I'm completely opposed to the debate tactic of mockery. And the increasing American tendency to win arguments through ridicule is at its worst in this terrain, the Conspiracy Theory terrain.
Notice, for example, Tacoma Rain putting his hands into defensive position before the fact, since he's going to be venturing into "Conspiracy Theory" territory.
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Why? What, exactly, is so preposterous about the suggestion that somebody might have an agenda? And that they might keep this agenda close to the vest?
I have agendas -- many of them, even with respect to SSI, some of which I don't tell you about. Doesn't everybody have agendas? And how often do you make it a point to provide full disclosure for your own agendas?
If a politician, or a powerful business executive, did NOT have agendas, what use would he be?
It's not preposterous to suggest that the Mariners are managing their P.R., nor that the Justin Upton situation was chiefly a ploy to represent themselves as aggressively trying to win. Geoff Baker suggested precisely this with respect to the Josh Hamilton contract offer. And the Mariners have always been exceptionally concerned with public perception.
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2. "Conspiracy" usually implies that you're plotting to do something illegal, or at least immoral. That's the emotional tone attached.
Let's say the Mariners had been doing this -- making lukewarm efforts to improve their team, assuming the efforts won't be enough, and figuring "Well, if Hamilton accepts our mediocre offer, so much the better. But at least we'll be able to advertise our efforts."
What would be illegal or immoral about that? Nothing.
On the other hand, their decade-long policy of treating 85 wins like a pennant, their Committee belief that all we owe to Soccer Mom is an evening of Major League Baseball (TM) under the open air, I could argue that there are things unethical about that. But this winter, nada, not in a vacuum.
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3. Based on my own (limited) experience with business executives at Zduriencik's and Towers' level, would I say that it's feasible that maybe the Mariners and DBacks went through this whole thing, not really wanting to make a deal?
No way in the world.
For one thing, you don't jerk people around like that, people outside your own company. A necessary evil, like the M's jumping off Montero to Smoak in the Cliff Lee deal, that is part of the rough-and-tumble of big bidness. But to sit down with a fellow power broker, and take up his time based on a sham negotiation that was a fraud from day one? That's not the cloth they are cut from.
Execs who make $500,000 a year are about getting from point A to point B, whatever the bloodshed might be along the way. They're just not interested enough in your opinion, to spend that kind of time and energy on appearances. They've got stuff to do, man. There are a lot of things you might call Jack Zduriencik, but small-minded is not one of them.
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4. That last sentence does not apply, in my opinion, to Harold Reynolds.
I think he's just being catty about a former org that has offended him in the past. Some of those ex-ballplayers are extremely focused on the petty aspects of the situation and if Reynolds got a chance to take a swipe at the M's, I'm sure he'd take it.
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5. Upton's agent was indeed quoted, last year, specifically opening the door to teams on Upton's no-trade list. Guess here is that the agent and the player weren't on the same page, which is nothing unusual.
Kelly Gaffney hit this one spot on, we think. Upton probably has some specific trade in mind, much like Griffey did back in '99*, and we're guessing that's the dynamic here.
How to overcome it? Back channel, you'd need to convince him that his preferred destination(s) really aren't possible, because Upton's trying to twist your arm to take 75 cents on the dollar to send him there. Undoubtedly he thinks that if he pushes hard enough, if he plays chicken with enough determination, you (Towers) will throw your hands in the air and say "Oh, all right."
All things considered, it would probably take a whale of a recruiting effort by Zduriencik to get Upton here. Maybe that's what's going on now.
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6. If Zduriencik is willing to give up this kind of jack to make a deal happen, you would think he'd be able to Git R Done sometime this winter. I mean, two 10K major league relievers, together with the top-100 prospects bundle, that's serious coin. If I'm a rival GM shopping my All-Star, I want to know what all else Zduriencik is willing to cough up.
BABVA,
Dr D
Comments
You're talking about conspiracy as most people usually use the term, I think.
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w/r/t President Obama's citizenship, you've got to be right on that point - how in the world would you contain all of the potential leak points?
w/r/t his citizenship generally, it's always been a non-starter for me. Supposing that there were a technical issue with his birthplace - who cares? As Romney put it, the country chose its leader. The folks who voted for him don't care whether he was technically a citzen at birth. ::shrug:: America wants Obama to be its president; the rest is conversation. The entire protest goes into the quibble/sore loser file cabinet for me.
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All four of your suggested agendas are compelling, especially the third one. If the M's just ran it up the flagpole, "Hey, you are going to be happy with what you get from us," then that's great by me.
Add to that, the fact that a trade partner could TAKE ITS PICK of any ML-ready starter, and you've removed every conceivable barrier here. If there are franchise players available for trade, you've got to think that Zduriencik will be adding one.
Thanks for the post.
What I still do not get is why ALL the names are released and confirmed by the people who normally support the M's keep secrets. Now that could be Towers again, but Jack or the M's or Drayer or Johns or someone could have been leaked / told no the list is a little different or yes 2 prospects but one was a PTBNL or something. I actually agree with the normal policy of not naming names.
Who knows how Pryor reacts to this, or Walker or Franklin. These are really young guys who now know the M's value them less than they thought a week ago.
Furbush has gone through this already, but the young guys were just told Santa doesn't love them any more.
I agree with Moe, Spec and others that we will need to trade several of our prospects, because there are just too many coming to be able to play them all... but there is no need to advertise that fact.
Now if this advertising gets us McCutchen or Sale or even Maurer - I am sorry for doubting you Jack, but....
I just do not see the need to change your 4+ year old policies just for an agenda.
Especially when you consider that the M's usually are so tight lipped about these things. If they were working on a contract extension behind the scenes, it seems like no one would say anything. So, the fact that it got out the way it did suggests someone leaked it with a specific purpose and specific result in mind. The Griffey scenario makes sense. Braves? Mets? You have to think the Yankees are out and the Dodgers more or less done spending.
First of all, Harold s comments about Upton not wanting to come to Seattle were surrounded by him saying he hasn't talked to either Larry our Justin about it. He said he didn't know why he didn't want to. He only said threat he didn't want to and that it esse obvious because he had a trade clause. This was Harolds best guess. He was specific that it wasn't inside information, just that he believes that's what"no trade"means. We all know that's not always the case so why are so many people ignoring the context?
Across the desk from him, Greg Amsinger, was the first person I heard saying "this also is the Mariners saying to the rest of the league, "Ok, this guy Walker , maybe the top pitching prospect in the game, who we've kept saying wasn't available...He's available for a special piece like this"
On any conspiracy theory, i try to locate the sources. Often all the information from one point of view is originating from one source and that makes it less meaningful to me. Its still possible to be true, I just prefer information from multiple sources. Unfortunately, anymore, one source can spawn many in just a few hours. Can we be sure that's not the case with the leak of what players were involved? No. It sounds like there may have been 2, one saying "these guys and one of the big 3" and another later saying "these guys and this one of the big 3" but for all we KNOW there may not have ever been a specific list leaked. And for everyone else to report it doesn't mean they all got that information first hand. I've heard that in this day 85% of all news is second hand, meaning that their source is another news outlet.
Either way I had been hoping that this could still go through, but the more i think about it the less likely it seems to be. It does give the rest of the league a basis for what we'd be offering for a player like this, but there are few of them that even could be available. Man, I'm stoked about thechances of this team in 13 if they do make that move.
The conspiracy is all the hitters that don't want to come play here. That's what needs to be worked around by Zduriencik in order to finish the lineup this year. If this is what we have for now, none of the offensive additions are for more than one year, so next year (aside from gains by the young guys) when Morales becomes a free agent, we're back to square one. I think adding one more MOTO could make the perceptions of the park change a bit this year. Adding Upton I think would have given us the best lineup since 2003 and with way more upside to boot. That's the way to change the perception, by hitting.
Upton ain't happening, it appears clear. Ditto Stanton. A pipe dream. Morse, is a very strong "perhaps" or a definate "could be."
But I'm quite interested in whether this failed effort to add an "impact bat" actaully leads Wedge to use his roster as I think it should be: With a liberal use of OF platoon.
Thames and Raul whack righties. Guti and Wells whack lefties.
Shucks, I wish there was an easy answer to somehow used them efficiently (or at least one pair of 'em).
moe
Well, forgot password and locked myself out.....but anyway, my first thought is they are using Arizona (not saying they WEREN'T trying to get Upton, but I think they had some inkling he may not agree) to let Miami know what kind of prospects they are inclined to deal for a proven bat. Maybe, just maybe, we may hear of some dealing between Miami and Jack now that Miami has seen what we're willing to give up.
"The players hear you," he'll say, when he's asked his opinion about players on the 25-man roster. VERY out of character if Zduriencik let it be known that Charlie Furbush was on his way out of town. Easy enough for him to leak, "two pitchers off our 25-man roster."
In this case the M's practically verified the names by not contradicting the report ... they'd have been quick enough to issue a denial if those names were inaccurate...
Agreed -- it's got to be frustrating for them at this point, all the No's they keep getting. That frustration could definitely, IMHO, lead to their throwing the hands in the air and saying "We're offering our firstborn to try to get something done here! What's going on?!"
... though it's not clear why they couldn't just tell Miami "any four minor leaguers, but not all of the pitchers" and go from there. Of course Zunino's not eligible.
'course Miami probably comes back with Jesus Montero and then wants their pick of any three... even Dr. D would blanch at that one...
...to send a message to person B is not a conspiracy, it's the art of subtlety.
I think Navy Chief is dead on here. It was likely an honest attempt at a long shot deal with the secondary benefit of advertising some of our terms.
It was the sixth call that got the deal for Marshawn Lynch done. Not all GMs are that persistent. News that Walker was on the table might have a dozen GMs, previously told no, ringing Jack's phone.
Just sayin, leaking the name Walker sends a message to a lot more than just Miami.
Sorry, Doc, but I don't get the idea of Miami asking for Montero. They don't have a DH for more than 20 games a season, and they've got Brantley to catch, who is in the conversation as a top young catcher along with Perez, Mesoraco, and Norris. Given Miami's weak spots, I think the conversation starts with Seager (who can fit at 2nd or 3rd for them) and Guti or Saunders to fill in for Stanton until Yelich and Marisnick are ready; and I think they'd go for Guti because of the Caribbean vibe they want. Then the package would be along the lines of the Upton offer, especially Walker and Franklin and maybe Paxton or Maurer,too, but they have some good relievers, so I'd guess they'd be more interested in promising starters, especially if we took Nolasco, too, but non-40-man style; probably two or more of Sanchez, Shipers, Elias or Kim. It may all be dreaming, but Miami HAS needs, and any trade would have to fill as many as possible of those needs with "ranked" prospects or young MLB players to overcome the flack of losing Stanton. And any 40-man roster player has to be better than they have on their (full) roster now. Yet I still think we could make a offer that wouldn't totally gut the farm and would net Stanton and Nolasco.
Right after the 10 player deal with Toronto though, it was WIDELY reported that Selig / MLB offices talked to the Marlins about their dumping of contracts and their marketable players.
IF the Marlins wanted to trade Stanton, Nolasco and Morrison for Seager, Saunders, K Morales, Jaso, Erasmo, Walker, Paxton, Franklin, G Guerero, Landry, V Sanchez, C Smith, Brazis, Elias and a PTBNL like Pike & DeCarlo & Lopes... Would the MLB allow it? There are NO marketable names there for the Marlins that will play this year.
I think the above trade would more than get it done for the Marlins, but would the league allow the Marlins go into 2013 with a bunch of no names and a payroll of under 20M?
That is what I am worried we are up against.
except that Saunders for 6 years starting out with low salaries makes more sense to them than Guti for one at $6.5 million then an option for $7 million. I'd rather trade Guti, but I'm certain Saunders is a getter fit for them.
Starting with Seager and Saunders might be exactly what they said and if so that's a hard pill to swallow. Although I think in the long run I'd probably do it. It would explain all the outfield depth,if they knew the bat they really wanted might eventually require Saunders. That's tough though. Saunders and Seager plus the other 4...feels like too much.
as I see it, only Towers benefits by making public the Ms offer. Now AZ can demand nothing less from other suitors.
This has also down the other Upton suitors that if they've got something we want we can pay for Upton to go to them. The deal could turn into a3 team trade, though it doesn't seem easy with thettop 2 suitors. Atlanta has a lot of the same needs and strengths as us. Texas is a division rival, but maybe there's a move that could work there. Not sure if they'd give up anything to us to make that happen, but there's a few potential ways to make it work from among their players.