Q.  What does the SSI mainframe crunch out of Lee's aberrant strikeout-to-walk ratio?

A.  As we write this, Lee has 137 whiffs against only 9 walks, in 20 games started.  In essence, he's continued to fan 7 men a game, but cut his walks from 1.5 down to "the occasional bad call."

Dr. D probably hangs more pitcher evaluaton on this X/Y ratio than anybody alive.  And we've been doing so for lotsa years.  We take the strikeout ratio, and match it against the template, and the BB ratio, and match that, and then the proportion, and mosh that off the template. 

So, although SSI estimates its light bulb count at 240 or so out of 1,000 ... opining on what a K/BB ratio means for a particular pitcher, that oughta be one of the light bulbs we have on.

Here is a superb Fangraphs article by Matthew, comparing Lee's freakish 2010 K/BB to the best in history.

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Q.  Why wouldn't that data suggest that Lee is becoming the best pitcher who ever lived?

A.  Because once you get past, say, 5.0 strikeouts per walk, you start talking about diminishing returns.  You start talking about balancing other things. 

A pitcher isn't out there trying to walk only 0.5 batters vs., say, 0.9 batters.  At that point, he's more concerned about a 4% chance of a homer vs. an 8% chance of a homer.

If K/BB were what a pitcher were trying to do, he could walk nobody (and give up 1.8 homers).  A running back is indeed trying for yards per carry, so outlying 5.7 YPC averages vs. 6.1 would interest me more. 

But getting the most strikeouts per walk isn't exactly the game he's playing.  If you were saying, here's a 97% free throw season vs a 93% season, yeah.

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Try it this way.  Carlos Silva had a 9-walk season, right?  Do single-digit walks prove something very fundamental about your ability?

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Also, I assume that Lee's 17.0 ratio will decline, a lot, over the last six weeks.  Apples to apples.  Those other guys pitched full seasons.  You gotta finish the season at .400, not just hit .400 into August.  :- )

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Q.  So 17 whuffs per "net walk" doesn't mean much?

A.  The "net walks" concept is absolutely a kick-tail way to illustrate that Cliff Lee is having a season that transcends the Cy Young.  ... giving Cliff Lee a Cy Young would be an insufficient honor for him this year.  It would be like introducing Ichiro to kids as "a bona fide Major League ballplayer."

Lee's season is a phenomenon.

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In the context of his particular (Bret Saberhagen) template, about which more in a second, the 0 walks essentially means this:  the batters can't get a good swing on him, and they know that, and Lee knows they know that.

Lee has reached the point to where he is essentially in no danger on the mound.  It's really just bad luck that leads to runs against him this year, the ball falling in through no particular success on the batter's part.

Lee goes out for his next start, they're not going to square him up, and everybody knows that.  That's what the 0 walks mean.

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Part 2

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