Jays' fans are spreading a rumor that the prospect the M's get back is Brian Dopirak. I don't mind noodling around about meaningless rumors. Typing is not one of my problems :- )
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Dopirak is a huge, RH first baseman who in 2004 had the kind of season only four or five Mariners farmhands have ever had. As a 20-year-old, much younger than his teammates, playing in a pitcher-friendly Midwest League, Dopirak posted an amazing SLG or .593 -- about 40 doubles, and about 40 homers, in 137 games. Carlos Triunfel wishes he could put those kind of results up.
Dopirak was the #21 prospect in all of baseball going into the next year, but then fell into a variety of woes that cost him the next three years or so.
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In 2008, he started mashing again, posting about 40 doubles and 40 homers full season pro-rated, as an older prospect in A+ ball. (He went to AA and hit less well in 3-4 weeks there.)
In 2009, this time he hit 50 doubles and 35 homers, pro-rated, in AA, and then slugged .500 in AAA.
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Summary: Dopirak is one of those guys who once looked like a cleanup hitter in the big leagues, lost his way, and now at 24-25 is hitting again.
The people around him attribute this to Dopirak's becoming less pull-happy, not trying to yank everything, to let the pitches get deeper into the strike zone.
There are any number of these guys around baseball, of course, eye-popping talent, who are trying to recapture the glory. But not so many of them have two excellent years of performance to show for it, and even fewer have the muscle density of Kakkarot training at 50G.
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Hitter age-arc is a guideline, not a law of gravity. Ask those who wrote off Ryan Howard and David Ortiz, exclusively because they didn't like the age-arc lines.
Dopirak is an interesting roll of the dice: single d6, 1-5 is nothing, 6 is a cleanup hitter. It would be one thing if Dopirak used to be good, and you're just taking on a project -- but Dopirak has had the results back, the last two years.
I'd rather the prospect coming back be Dopirak than Arencibia. I see Arencibia having a much more problematic path to realizing his offensive potential.
Cheers,
Dr D
...which would you rather have...Dopirak (your 15% gamble for the clean-up hitter vs. bust) or Cooper (a very polished high contact, solid-eye, medium power AA bat...your 40% reach for Lyle Overbay without paying 9 mil/year)?
Gentlemen...I am confused.
Does this mean that Poythress is not that good? How about Raben? why not include Carp in the deal, as he is now worthless to us?
Then, back to Doc's post of 2 hours ago...explain to me how Dopirak or Cooper compares favorably when compared to Edwin Jackson.
We are missing something. There is more to this story.
...it was Morrow + Kelley and maybe + something else for Jackson...not just Morrow for Jackson
Second of all...it's Morrow for League and a prospect...not just the prospect.
Third of all, Poythress and Raben are, presumably further away from the big leagues than the guy we pick up...I can only guess that some other deal follows this one where we trade Carp or the prospect we get here along with a reliever and some other piece for a major league contributor...because otherwise I don't quite understand what Z is planning for 1B.
The only explanation there might be, if on Dopirak's or Arencibia's behalf, is the basic width of the talent pyramid.
Zduriencik IMHO has been excellent, right from the get-go, about adding quality resources below the 25-man. The Putz trade beefed up the next tier with Vargas, Carp etc when the value of those guys wasn't apparent to us, then...
Guys,
I get that League is good. Really I do. But as Doc said...he has ONE pitch. It is a ++FB, but it is one pitch.
Morrow is Mr. September. The guy who shut out the A's, the guy who one hit the Yankees, the guy with a ++FB and possibly a +Change and a decent slurve. The Jays are trading for a number 3 starter in their minds.
We all know Jack is better than this.
I'd rather have Arencibia. Give me a shot at C version of Jose Lopez.
Dopirak is going to be a 26 year old minor leaguer, hes a 1b/DH and isn't even mashing AAA.
Of course I'd rather the prospect be someone better than either of those guys.
on the video, and on the run-values charts, Rain. His fork is better than Putz' was.
Do think that the more Seattle sees League, the more they're going to get it...
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That said, I hate to see Morrow go. I'm being contrarian, arguing that Morrow-for-League is reasonable because the rest of the world doesn't think so, and I think the rest of the world is missing something. :- )
But I was looking forward to a possible Morrow blitz of the AL next year.
is departing from the beaten path on Arencibia. Your analysis is refreshing.