MLB Trade Rumors links up to Dave Cameron hearing the name Zach Stewart, who is BA's No. 1 Blue Jay prospect, one notch above Arencibia: http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/rankings/organization-top...
Stewart is a hard-throwing rigthy (6-2, 205) drafted in the 3rd round by Cincy out of Texas Tech despite middling college results. He's zoomed through the minors, however, before being sent to Toronto as part of a trade-deadline package for Scott Rolen. He's pitched in both relief and as a starter. Has mostly been a reliever but Toronto reportly saw him as a starter. Supposedly 95-97 heat and "biting slider." In the minors, 138.0 IP, 129 K, 46 BB, 3 HR.
http://redlegsbaseball.blogspot.com/2009/05/zach-stewart-blowing-everyon...
Almost kind of like trading Morrow for a younger Morrow, and still getting League?
But it's just a rumor.
Taro points out, "WAR also underrates relievers slightly. Yes, Position players and SPs are far more valuable, but elite relievers pitch in much more leveraged situations."
This leveraging can amount to a factor of about 1.5, in my opinion.
For non-closer, #1 setup relievers brought in to put out fires, it might be more than that. You are not going to see me using WAR to evaluate trades for franchise relievers.
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Per WAR, Mariano Rivera has averaged 2.2 WAR the last eight years -- so he's as valuable as an exactly league-average outfielder, right? Two wins above replacement level = league average?
Think you could have gotten Rivera from the Yankees for a 2-win outfielder? How about for a 3-win outfielder? No way. The Yankees would have looked you right in the eye and said, Rivera is worth 50-100% more than his WAR indicate.
And they've paid him accordingly. In 2008, they gave him $15m per -- appropriate for 3-4 wins, not two.
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=== Z Axis Dept. ===
The 2001 Mariners ran Arthur Rhodes, Jeff Nelson and Kazuhiro Sasaki out there -- those guys running 10k rates, saving 25 runs or so and getting credit for about 2.5 WAR apiece. The reality is that those three relievers shaped ballgames -- about 116 of them.
I've got nothing about RC/27 and its derivatives, EqA, wOBA, xFIP* and WAR. Here's my post defending its integrity despite its high values for FA's this offseason. But bases-per-out does not capture (among other things) the timing of bases gained and lost. If bases are the X axis, outs the y axis, then timing is the Z axis.
The fundamental rules of baseball allow for managers to change pitchers at a time of his choosing. If the manager can -- at will -- change to Papelbon, Rivera, or Brandon League* -- the timing of that move warps the routine x-y axis metrics.
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And there's a domino effect. If you know that KRod is staying out of the game unless needed .... but that if you get two guys on, he'll come in and embarrass you anyway ... that affects you even when he doesn't come in.
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The Pythagorean Theorem, by the way, is another manifestation of the Z axis that is invisible to WAR-type metrics.
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=== W Axis ===
There's a W axis. X and Y are mostly captured by WAR. Play a game of Strat-O, with in-game managerial decisions, and you've captured much of the Z axis.
If baseball were played by machines, you'd be done. But it's played by human beings rather than video algorithms, and that's the W axis. Humans play with hangovers and injuries. They come in visualizing the positive, or they don't.
Humans get kicked in the gut with two straight Eddie Guardado blown saves, and they play lousier the third day. That's the W axis.
Relievers are important -- the more so if your only closer is David Aardsma.
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What causes a player to have an UP year or a DOWN year? This is another example of the human factor, the Z axis. These aren't Strat-O cards.
When other players around them are playing well -- when they have Rhodes, Nellie and Daimajin waiting to seal a victory -- it's easier for some other player to visualize success, and to play well himself.
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=== Can You Win Your Next Pennant With This Player, Dept. ===
Step away from the slide rule and ask yourself something: are Jon Papelbon and Mariano Rivera key parts of their championship teams? There probably isn't a Yankee who wouldn't tell you that Rivera has been one of the 3 or 4 most important parts of the 1996-2009 Yankees. Many Yankees would surely tell you that Rivera -- meandering along at his 2.2 WAR -- has been THE most important part of many Yankee teams.
Would all those Yankees be wrong, or is there something about baseball that WAR is not capturing here?
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I love Brandon Morrow, and wanted to see the 17-6, 2.89 season :- ) or else see him go out in a deal for AGone.
But if you think Brandon League is a 1 WAR commodity, watch a ballgame sometime. ;- ) If you're going to slap a WAR figure on League, use the number 3. That's conservative.
Cheers,
Dr D
Comments
Just for full disclosure, the No. 1 BA ranking was before the Blue Jays acquired three new guys in the Halladay deal. But he would still be no lower than 4, obviously.
Rosenthal reports that the second player is a "minor leaguer" and not someone with MLB experience. Churchill says Rosenthal says the player is "probably" a pitcher, although I can't find that right away on the Fox Sports site. So Zach Stewart is the leader in the clubhouse at the moment.
Also, Morosi reports that Mike Koplove was signed to a minor league deal. Pretty effective reliever for awhile, but hasn't really pitched since 2005. http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/k/koplomi01.shtml?redir
And pure speculation that the Ms might be one of the three teams that have made offers to Justin Duchscherer. http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/d/duchsju01.shtml?redir
Now the new rumor is Johermyn (or Yohermyn) Chavez, 20-year-old, A-level RH OF, 6-3 200 from Venezuela.
Showed XBH power in repeating the Midwest League: .283/.346/.474, 22 doubles, 6 triples, 21 HR, but 137 K vs. 40 BB. http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=chavez001yoh
The Hardball Times ranking that Doc first linked to last night has Chavez as the #1 prospect.
http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/top-10-prospects-for-2...
But Baseball America did not have him in the top 10.
At first glance from the numbers. Wlad listed as 6-2, 190; Yohermyn as 6-3, 200.
EDIT: the first site listed him at 200, but two other sites, including the official team site, list him as 6-3, 220. So he's actually quite a bit bigger dude than Wlad.
Wlad at 20: 38 doubles, 8 triples, 25 HR, 160 K at advanced-A Cal League
Yohermyn at 20: 22 doubles, 6 triples, 21 HR, 137 K at low-A Midwest League
Yuck, I MUCH prefferred the Stewart rumor..
League is going to be a really great reliever, but I was hoping for a bigger piece with our biggest trade chip..
If that rumor is true its basically Morrow for League straightup + toolsy OF whos still in low A after 335 minor league games with a horrible eye ratio and contact rate.
>Taro points out, "WAR also underrates relievers slightly. Yes, Position players and SPs are far more valuable, but elite relievers pitch in much more leveraged situations."
Use REW or WPA to compare starters and relievers.
Better stat than WAR in that matter.
Can you run a couple of WPA or REW's for top relievers Dr. N? Either as a comment or article...
Your expectation for League's?
JJ Putz: 2007 - 5.98 (!)
David Aardsma: 2009 - 2.70
Jonathan Papelbon: 2006-2009 - 5.32, 3.79, 1.86, 5.13
Mariano Rivera: Routinely between 2.53 and 5.26
Brandon League: 2009 - MINUS 1.01 (and his pLI has never been high, which means Toronto never trusted him with high leverage appearances)
Is not unreasonable, for a reliever that you're madly in love with.
I think the world of Brandon League. On my roster, he goes in there at 3-4 WAR.
Toronto fans think League is a headcase who can't hold up under pressure...the WPA stats say they're rigtht.
The unfortunate reality of labels is that it is quite common for a label thrust on someone to result in that player being "managed" as if that is true forever, (whether true or not).
Branyan cannot hit lefties. All he'll EVER be is a lefty bat off the bench, or a decent platoon guy. Anyone who voluntarily gives him even a single at bat against a RHP is a complete moron. THAT was not only the opinion of MLB in general on Branyan - but also the opinion of nearly every Ms fan PRIOR to the 2009 season. But, you can't draw ANY conclusions based on 12 ABs over 6 months. If you get 2-ABs per month against lefties, OF COURSE you're going to stink.
Branyan and Aardsma were both cases where "everyone" knew they weren't capable of holding down a "real" or "important" job.
Part of the magic of Jack is he looks for players who are "labeled" inferior or damaged -- and giving them a legitimate chance to prove the world wrong. Branyan, Aardsma ... he wins the bet. Cedeno? He loses. But, you can't EVER win that bet if you're only ever paying for "obvious" winners.
Peripherals say that League finally "started" pulling things together in 2009. Maybe he continues forward. Maybe he flames out. But, like Snell ... you can't get the "scrub" performing like a star, unless you're willing to play some scrubs.
Is another demonstrated Zduriencik strength. Another great post.
Or they could be part of the very common syndrome, of fans who see a reliever blow a couple of games, and then hate his guts :- )
If League's makeup be a question, it's the only question left on him. So, fair enough.
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Putting League into the rotation would remove that issue, and would echo the solution that was used on Morrow's behalf.