On Kelley:
I think Kelley "might" become a great pitcher (SP or RP).
I don't bet my house on ANY pitcher with only 46 IP in the bigs.
Yes, I'm concerned about a major innings jump BECAUSE he was on the DL in '09.
I'm also concerned about a spur-of-the-Spring conversion, because if he stumbles as a starter and the club is FORCED to return him to the pen - you could easily end up with the Morrow-Morrow will his status change again tomorrow playbook being run again -- and it generally isn't a good idea to repeat the exact same mistake you just finished making.
I'm very, very, very worried about the bullpen - to the extent that I noticed the ONLY pitcher Aardsma has been better during the Spring is Olson. (Okay - all hands for people wanting Olson eventually being called on to set-up and/or close.)
I don't get why the entirety of the Seattle web prescence went apoplectic about the Fig/Lop Flip-Flop because you either cannot possibly adjust from 2B to 3B in a month *OR* if you don't look like Brooks Robinson at 3B in the first week, you'll never improve. But, starting and relieving don't require any kind of transition whatsoever. (If SP and RP are the same - then 2B and 3B are identical, too -- it's just catching grounders and throwing to 1B, after all.)
The Ms currently have more pitchers than The Pottery Barn - (and about a gross of them already have MLB starting experience). Opting to beam Kelley to the Bridge after a dozen innings in ST is the kind of knee-jerk spur-of-the-minute decision that likely does irreperable harm to the entire concept of players EARNING a spot in the lineup -- (because the next pitcher to have a good week with a 10/1 K/BB ratio can JUSTLY ask -- "So, why don't I get to start next week, too?")
If we're going to begin making rotation choices off of 12-inning samples, then shouldn't we justify making Tui the DH and cutting Junior based on their ST samples? (Not like Griffey's contract is too large to eat, is it?)
Basically -- *IF* Kelley is as great as advertised -- let him dominate from the bullpen for the month of April to confirm the suspicion under GENUINE competitive conditions. If, after that period, you are satisfied with the strength of the bullpen (in theory without Kelley), then you move him into a starting role in RESPONSE to other events - (SP getting hurt, suspended, rocked over multiple starts, etc.)
Q. M's need him in the bullpen.
A. People say this and I always think, hey, then you need Felix in the bullpen too, right?
You would never put Felix, or Cliff Lee, or anybody like that, in the bullpen even if you were the 1997 Mariners and your pen was the laughingstock of the league.
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What people mean by this is: "we know Kelley is a great reliever, and we're not sure what he'll be in the rotation, so why fix it if it isn't broken."
SSI is completely sure what Kelley would be in the rotation. ;- ) Not sure why anybody else isn't.
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Q. The M's need somebody to get LH's out.
A. True dat.
- Aardsma closes
- Lowe's pitches, like farm-fresh eggs, break just the way LH diners like them
- The M's have no LH reliever
- Kelley is great vs LH's
This is the argument that has the most traction - that when the other guys bring their three lefty MOTO's up, you really need Kelley there.
Notice, however, that the Rangers' only dangerous LH hitter is Josh Hamilton, and the A's only dangerous LH hitter is Kendry Morales and maybe Abreu. The M's don't face lefty lineups in the division in 2010. Here, let's chart this out:
Lefty hitters > 115 OPS+, AL West:
- Josh Hamilton
- Jack Cust
- Kendry Morales,
- Bobby Abreu, maybe
Also, teams won't stack LH's anyway against Lee, Vargas, Bedard, or Felix. So...
But Kanekoa Texeira, as Jon noticed, is good vs LH's. So there's a little insurance.
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Q. You can't take a guy from 70 innings to 200.
A. Only sith speak in absolutes.
:- ) Some guys have to move from the pen to the rotation, right? Anyway, yeah, you'd want to use Kelley lightly -- 170 IP, not 220. Get him out of there at 99 pitches. Skip a turn once in a while.
The idea "you never want to jump IP by more than 50" works better as a strong guideline than as a revelation from On High. Some guys convert, like Wainwright. What, you think nobody should ever convert?
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Q. What if Kelley does stay in the pen?
A. Geoff Baker brought up the inspired comparison of Scot Shields.
From 2002-2008, pivoting around their 2004 title, Shields was a real stealth MVP for the Angels.
For some reason, Shields better than anybody else typified just how rawhide-tough the '00s Angels were, inside and out ...
Looking at it here, we remember that the Angels tried Shields as an SP, too, in 2003. Hmmmmmm, what happened ...
He threw a couple of April games, was excellent, and then went back to the pen. With the Angels well under .500, they gave him all of Aug and Sept to prove himself, 11 consecutive starts.
He was real good -- 55 strikeouts, 13 walks, 8 homers in 78 IP -- but not as good as he was as a reliever. He received 3.6 runs of support and went 4-6, 3.89 .... either his arm didn't feel good after, or the Angels missed out on one of the league's 15-20 best starters.
Granted, Shields was a huge asset in relief. But then, so would have been John Lackey.
Cheers,
Dr D
Comments
Any chance you could keep numbering your depositions? :- )
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2. I wouldn't bet my house, either, but I would bet the $1.95 entry fee to give him Jason Vargas' spot.
Objectively speaking, is probably the safest way to handle him.
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The great thing about that classic Santana strategy, is that June-July is when the M's will really need some rotation arms. In April, there isn't much need for Kelley in the first inning. So that synchs up well.
:- )
Busted a gut when I saw it - expecting: "Over-ruled" as the body. :-)
Personally, I like the Santana approach for a number of reasons ...
Allows the kid to work on the new stuff "regularly" - w/o allowing multiple looks to the same hitters during the refinement (i.e. - oh CRAP) phase of adding a new pitch.
Naturally suppresses his year-long inning total -- 35 IP by July, followed by 80 in the second half is (IMO), a TON better than 80 IP in the first half - and then limited to 35-40 during your theorhetical playoff push.
Facing hitters once (9-hitter limit) is one of the reasons relievers have a better aggregate ERA than starters -- so you build his confidence with a better ERA -- but you give him 2-inning experience regularly, so he can adapt to the mid-inning warm-up cycles without expecting 27 hitters.
As a reliever, there will typically be someone else ready to get warm as soon as he enters a game -- so damage control on a bad day is quicker and easier. The 8-run first disasters are a good way to destroy a kid's psyche before he's even started - (this is magnified by the importance of the game - which is why the same thing happening in AAA isn't as bad).
If you accelerated Kelley, it would be due to the unique circumstance here: reinforcements here from June on, major shortage the first two months -
Different teams factor different external pressures, hopefully not making decisions in an abstract one-size-fits-all mode...
That said, the M's obviously agree with you... if they're going to do it at all, it's going to be (much) later...
Without a doubt, the year-long IP total is a consideration these guys weigh heavily. Feierabend, for example, Adair said he could probably help in the rotation right now, but coming off surgery they set a 125-IP max for the year -