Seattle Sports Insider

Revised WAR Stack: PITCHING PREVIEW and POSITION PLAYER SUMMARY

Posted by

3/25/10

I'm skipping the starting rotation for the moment. Why am I skipping the starting rotation? Because I'm literally on my knees and *BEGGING* the Mariners' brass to go out and sign another starter before I do that piece. With Fister, Lee and Bedard out at the start of the year and uncertainty surrounding Vargas, RRS and Snell, the Mariners NEED to acquire at least one more starting pitche. Ideas being floated right now are Chad Gaudin and of course, Jarrod Washburn.

I don't honestly care who we sign, as loing as they can go 7 innings when stretched out and can pitch into the defense. It doesn't have to be fancy...it just has to be better than Garrett Olsen. Because right now, the Mariners have 4 SPs in camp and three of them are shaky at best.

So I'm boycotting commenting on the starting pitchers until the day before opening day or the day the Mariners sign someone else to fill out the April rotation, because I don't think you folks want to see the projections for April without that. Please, Z...get it the heck done.

The summary to date:

REPLACEMENT LEVEL: 48.0 W
CATCHERS: 1.5
- Adam Moore: 1.0
- Rob Johnson: 0.6
- Josh Bard / Eleizer Alfonzo: -0.1
FIRST BASEMEN: 1.5
- Ryan Garko: 0.8
- Casey Kotchman: 0.5
- Mike Sweeney: 0.2
SECOND BASEMEN: 4.0
- Chone Figgins: 4.0
- Matt Tuiasosopo: 0.1
- Jack Hannahan: -0.1
THIRD BASEMEN: 2.5
- Jose Lopez: 2.4 (note...I moved Lopez' PT from 2B over to third since I believe Tui will get the extra starts at second to avoid confusing Lopez defensively, so his win value is up a tenth at third, but actually down overall)
- Matt Tuiasosopo: 0.1
- Jack Hannahan: 0.0
SHORTSTOPS: 1.0
- Jack Wilson: 0.7
- Matt Tuiasosopo: 0.4
- Josh Wilson: -0.1
OUTFIELDERS: 13.5
- Ichiro Suzuki: 5.2
- Franklin Gutierrez: 5.0
- Milton Bradley: 2.3
- Eric Byrnes: 0.9
- Ryan Langerhans / Michael Saunders: 0.1
DH / SCRUBS: 1.0
- Griffey Jr.: 0.2
- Bradley: 0.8
- Sweeney: 0.7
- Scrubs: -0.7

Pre-pitching total: 73 wins. I made a few minor tweaks to account for some not-quite-correct conversions from the projected batting-lines I gave and the offensive WAR value into which those lines would actually translate and do to some tweaks in thinking regarding defense.

To be competitive, if these projections hold, the Mariners need to find 17 WAR from their pitching staff (roughly). That's not out of reach...but it's going to depend heavily on the performance of scrub pitchers and the health of key figures like Erik Bedard, Cliff Lee and Felix Hernandez, not to mention agility w/r/t the use of David Aardsma and his current set-up men (read: Aardsma sucks and the Mariners need to adjust quickly and get him out of high leverage innings if he fails as I expect him to).

As currently constructed, the Mariner pitching staff contains two starters who can throw more than 140 innings and a whole lot of ???????????????? in the rest of the rotation, plus a fantastic set-up corps, some interesting pieces for middle relief and a shaky closer. The distribution of IP going to arms o this team is going to be more fat-right-tailed than most teams, so their pitching depth is going to be tested.

I will project DNRA (league average in 2009 is the same as league RA/G - 4.82 last year)...NOT ERA...projecting ERA is silly when we're trying to calculate defense independent WAR value...I already projected defensive value within the player budgets.

Obviously, some guys are going to both start and relieve. Their names will appear on the list for their primary role. For example, Jason Vargas is unlikely to throw more relief innings than starting innings...he'll either be starting here or in AAA most of the year I would guess. But Shawn Kelley, even if he gets some spot starts, is primarily a reliever. The projections will include DNRA, #Starts, IP, WAR.

Changes in the position player score-card above include:

My offensive projection for Rob Johnson was actually not worth as many WAR as I thought...I scaled that back a bit. I am also going to cut back a bit on my Adam Moore projection and the value into which it will translate.

I cutting Garko's wins down beacuse of how bad he looks defensively at this point.

I recalcualted Figgins' defensive and offensive projections and I was off by a couple of runs. I gave Lopez a -7 instead of a -5 for defense and increased his PT at third and took it away completely from second, giving that instead to Matt Tui (at lower net value).

And Griffey lost a run when recalculating his offensive RAR to include a slightly harsher speed penalty.

The net result is a loss of 1.5 wins from the last total projection. That's about as negative as I can see myself being at the moment. The next article will be relief pitchers...then we'll see whether the Mariners grow a friggin' brain and sign a starting pitcher.

Comments

Rotation & bench

They need rotation help in April. Washburn hasn't thrown an inning. Train has left that station. Later in the year, they expect Lee and Bedard and they CAN stretch out Kelley, at which point Washburn won't add much. More likely they'll try to claim or trade for a guy who's already stretched out but won't make a final 25, if they can.
If Sweeney is viable as RH 1b, as Doc says Wok said, and Tui is passable as both SS and OF, which they seem to be saying, then I think it's between Garko, Byrnes and Langerhans for one last spot (if I'm doing the math right). Garko has one option left, I have read, so I'm guessing he goes down if Sweeney stays, and I don't much care as between Byrnes and Langerhans.

Do you think Washburn is an idiot?

He'd have to be a complete moron not to throw his own bullpen sessions all spring long to get ready to get the ball at a minute's notice. So no...the train has not left the station for Washburn. He's probably working his arm out just like he would with a ballclub...all he has to do is toe the rubber and throw in one or two spring training starts...enough that he's ready to pitch on game 5 of the season.

I just don't think they would

I'm sure he's working out and throwing, but I don't think they'd put him right into starting games that count. I don't think they'd do that with anyone they didn't consider "stretched out."
But I may be completely wrong.

Well...I think if they're going to sign him...

....it pretty much has to be in the next few days. they need to be able to give him two spring training starts...4 innings and 5 or 6 innings. If they wait any longer, that won't happen, and he won't be a vialble option. If Washburn is smart, he's ready by now to pitch 4 innings in a ST game.

Just wondering

Did you consider docking Garko's playing time and increasing Sweeney's as it begins to look more like Sweeney will make the club instead of Garko?

I think...

...that Garko will eventually make the club once the pitching staff settles in and we can cut it to 11...and I think Garko will be the one steal first bat at bats, more so than Sweeney, when he does get here. But you could be right...Sweeney might steal Garko's PT...they're comparable offensively (in terms of net value) so it doesn't really change the picture much.