What's the #1 punch card into the mainframe, when projecting UP/DOWN?  Age.  Reynolds is 27 with experience.

I mean, there are 10 or 20 different things you feed in, when projecting arc.  But what's first?  The birthday.

Objectively speaking, you gamble Reynolds UP looonnnnnng before you gamble up on a 30-something like Milton Bradley.

Reynolds' most-similar players per baseball-reference.com:

• Age 23 - Mike Schmidt
• Age 24 - Mike Schmidt
• Age 25 - Mike Schmidt

I don't say that Reynolds is going to be a star, but it ain't like he's done.  'member:  at age 27, Cust was still working out the kinks in AAA.   Cust actually had very discouraging years in AAA at ages 25 and 26.

.........................

Power grows from ages 24-29, most often peaking at age 30-31.

EYE and BB grow throughout a player's career, not "peaking" until they become old men.

The Bill James Index starts and finishes with, "Did this guy just have a big year by his own standards?"  The historical perspective is that if a guy just had a bad year, well slap me silly, the next year's liable to be better.

...........................

In roto, I would draft Reynolds pretty strong next year.

.

=== OK, Boys, Four Questions Today Dept. ===

There's been a lot of rumors circulating that one of the first things Kevin Towers wants to do as the new GM of the Diamondbacks is to reduce team strikeouts.  It's a solid idea, as the Diamondbacks led the Majors in strikeouts by a large margin.  The first thing he's expected to do, is to unload the 3 time Strikeout leader Mark Reynolds.  I think the Mariners could easily be in the discussion.

If I were Jack Zduriencik, I would assume these things:

• Kevin Towers is way too smart to merely "want to reduce team strikeouts"
• That this cover story is a con for "I hate Mark Reynolds but want to distract them with put-on stupidity - 'ah, that explains the dump' "
• The truth is that the D-Backs, as an org, is just no longer a viable place for Reynolds
• And that's fine with me

Or not.

.

The Diamondbacks are said to be looking for relief help and contact hitters, and if there's one thing the Mariners have, it's relief help and contact hitters.  A trio that immediately jumps to mind is Lopez, Figgins, and League.

If I were Kevin Towers and were actually "wanting to reduce team strikeouts" then I would jump at Jose Lopez, even steven.

I'll guarantee you that the other GM's in the league know what Safeco's effect has been on Lopez, are aware of his potential for Carlos Guillen-age, and know what a terrific glove JLo is.

And that he makes less than Reynolds.

If you want to shed K's, why wouldn't you go for Lopez even up?

...................

The assumption has been that the Mariners would nontender Lopez, but obviously they'd rather deal him.  The brinksmanship begins as other teams try to grab him as a free agent, but if a handshake deal could be worked out...

Look at Lopez as a generic Strat-O card.  He is:

• A wonderful defensive 3B
• 26 turning 27
• A guy who had two 103 OPS+ seasons before the off 2010
• A guy laboring in a terrible park
• With one of the quickest bats in baseball
  

You wouldn't be looking at a guy like that? 

If I'm a rival GM, I am very interested in rolling the dice on Jose Lopez.  But we'll see.

.

Part 4

.