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=== I'm Sure You Haven't Noticed This, But ===
UZR says that Casper Wells has a career total of +20.0 runs saved (per 150 games) in the outfield. That's over a good span of 700 innings, 700 being 78 games x 9 innings.
Skip past the trite retort on that, that he probably isn't the best defensive outfielder in baseball. Sure, that's true. Move on to the relevant point. In his first 131 full and partial ML games, Casper Wells has run down a whole bunch of batted balls out there.
He's also +33 runs in center field, having made 4 out-of-zone plays in 10 (full) games and presumably all the normal plays IN his center field sector.
Wells' sabermetric speed index is 130, which is higher than Curtis Granderson's and Ichiro's. His range factor in center field is 3.11, compared to an AL average of 2.65. It's not like he's Chris Snelling playing center (which Billy Beane actually did). Casper Wells can pick 'em up and lay 'em down.
Now let's turn the question around for a second. Why, exactly, do you argue that Casper Wells is not a center fielder? Is it because his torso looks like a V, and he bats right handed?
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=== At the Plate ===
Ron Shandler, who is not a Mariner fan, projects the 2012 Casper Wells to slug .453, with 26 home runs per 550 at-bats. Despite a questionable OBP, Shandler's projection would leave Wells at 4.9 runs per 27 outs. That's not too farfetched, considering that his career RC/27 actually is 5.4. That 5.4 includes the washout September after a fastball broke his face.
Franklin Gutierrez has achieved 4.0 runs per 27 only one time, that being the 2009 season that scored him a $20M contract. Gutierrez' glory 6.0 WAR season produced 4.8 runs per 27 outs.
In 2012, I'd have drafted Casper Wells long before Franklin Gutierrez, anyway. Defensively, it says here that the difference is more subtle than people make it out to be.
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=== Fill In Your Own Punch Line ===
The Mariners have already gone with five (5) defensive switches that had gotten scoffed at: Montero C, Ackley 2B, Carp LF, Catricala 3B, and maybe Figgins SS. While we're at it, what's one more :- )
You might not want to play all six of those rightward-shifts together. Then again, remember the 1977 White Sox, the South Side Hit Men, with four DH's in the lineup?
'Net rats glibly scoffed at the idea of Mike Carp in LF, but ..... based on what? Based on little more than the idea that a sophisticated fan calls for excellent defense.
'Net rats might scoff at the idea of Casper Wells playing center, but .... based on what, exactly?
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=== Corollary ===
If you play three or four or five bat-first players, you're going to want some strikeouts. All the more reason to get Paxton and Hultzen in there real quick.
The limiting factor on all this is really the invisible one. It's hard to sell these kinds of decisions inside the org. Jack Zduriencik has tremendous courage, is tremendously willing to risk the second-guess. How much political capital does he have, though? There's going to be a limit somewhere.
It could be that Eric Wedge himself will make the pitch to put Wells in CF. I'm hoping.
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=== Dr's Prognosis ===
I've never been the same kind of Gutierrez fan that everybody else was. So it isn't like you told me hey, Dustin Ackley could be out for the season. It's more like you told me hey, Jason Vargas has a sore elbow. Well, okay. He's got value, but this is a deep roster, and there is a flip side to that Vargas-Out news.
I'd love to get a good long look at Casper Wells. So would Eric Wedge, who was not here for Gutierrez' 6.0 WAR season, and who spent 2011 mostly growling at Guti to get out on the field and show him something.
There is some question about the outfield depth in that scenario: Figgins and Catricala, in several combinations of LF/CF/3B, ratchet around the carousel to replace Gutierrez.
So Gutierrez plays less, and Wells and Catricala play more? Cool by me. 2009 is ancient blinkin' history, kiddies.
The Mariners are finally on the verge of acting like one of the good AL teams. Have the Yankees ever even heard of a UZR? Do they care?
(The correct answer is no and no). The Yankees put all their stock in a different stat often eschewed by savvy money conscious Mariners fans: The RBI.
It sounds like Mr. Wedge is getting proactive about making good on his word that 2012 will be the year that the Mariners take a significant leap forward offensively.
Per Z on KJR a short while ago,
-Ackley is not moving off of 2nd, for any reason really. No moves to the outfield for him. Too much time and effort invested in to making him not only a serviceable 2B, but a 'natural' one.
-He looooves Catricala and sees him as a big part of the M's (near) future. While he didn't say so specifically, I got the impression he felt about Cat at 3B the way he felt about Ack at 2B. i.e., he only moves from there if he's completely inept. Sounds like they are going for stability where they have young cornerstone-type players at key defensive positions.
No way do I go outside the org for a CF right now. We already did - twice. That's how Wells and Trayvon got here in the first place.
We were prepared for Guti to be ineffective. We had to be. No way to know how he'd recover over the offseason from his diet issues.
So Plan B had to be Wells or Robinson, right? Let Wells play CF, I'm begging you. I think he'll do fine. Great arm, fast, a clubber at the plate...what's not to like at the position?
A 105 OPS+ would match Guti's HIGH. Casper's 300 pro ABs are much higher than that. Stick him in CF, give up a couple of doubles against and take a couple of HRs for. Call it a day.
And yes, at this rate we're building a Boston or NYY type of offense. The Bo Sox moved their 1B to third. So did Detroit. None of them are griping about it. Move Wells to CF, see if Catricala can stay at 3B, let Montero catch a bunch, and watch the offense pile up.
Several of our pitchers by the end of the season will be the miss-bats type anyway. Someone tell Hultzen to throw the ball by people instead of pitching to contact and we'll see if we can't "overcome" an iffy D at some positions with a wealth of offense and pitcher strikeouts.
~G
Funny how Guti's injury may get people to look at Wells in a different way....despite the fact that he's the same Casper, with a nice upside, that he always was.
People may still see CF's in the mold of Micky Rivers or Amos Otis, both 165 lbs dripping wet...or, in the modern game, the 185 lb Coco Crisp. These guys look fast standing still. Rivers and Otis were both pretty good offensive players in their day. Mick the Quick had a 106 career OPS+, and Otis had a 114. He even hit more than 20 homers twice.
But the 6'2, 210 lbs Gorman Thomas was a pretty dang good CF, too. Even had a decent glove, although he was known for hitting the ball over the fence. 114 career OPS+
Interestingly, Wells is 6'2, 210 lbs, too. A Thomas-type clone? Thomas had that compact followthrough, too. Have we made that comparison before? Seems like we did. Wells career OPS+ (340 PA's, I know) is 119.
Anyway, there is more than one CF way to skin the cat.
Where was it that I read the suggestion that the M's chase a trade with the A's to get Crisp? My goodness! Why would this team, with both Wells and Trayvon, sell young talent to inherit $20M of Crisp salary? Guti may well be back in May. Casper will be more than fine.
Sit back and relax!
moe
Cat & Ack - I feel like I've read that cartoon strip. Thanks for pointing out the audio - Here's the link. He does gush about Cat (20:30).
On CF (17:15) Jack talks Figgins, Wells, Saunders, 'and you never know what else happens'. No mention of Robinson.
Figgins - first mentioned, talks about his experience, but sounds like he's going to be a UT moving forward.
Wells - no details, but at least he's in the conversation.
Saunders (6:20) - "Eric (Wedge), this is the best I've seen Michael Saunders swing the bat. I mean it was a good swing...." Jack hedges, but sounds legitimately intrigued.
Also a new batting stance for Peguero, but alas no new eye.
Good to see that Mauricio Robles appears to be recovering after a lost year. Struck out the side in the 9th inning (probably scrub hitters, but still heartening).
If he gets his stuff all the way back, he's another guy that deserves notice as a lefty in the pen, at least.
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BTW, Jack indicated (in the radio interview muskie and Alpine linked to) that all three of "the kids" were throwing 94-96. If I get all three on the JV, then the varsity can have Felix and we'll call it good.
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And, boy, Jack is super-high on Vinnie -- kept coming back to him. Makes me think Figgins CF/Vinnie 3b might be Jack's preferred solution. Put Seager at SS and that's, what, seven bat-first lineup slots?
He's always had problems going more than 5 innings, and gets far more wild at that point. I like to keep guys in the rotation as long as possible, but with the rotation options we have I fully expect Robles to be converted to a AAA closer-type and work on his bullpen approach.
The dude can (could?) hit 97 as a short-and-stumpy lefty starter. If there's such a thing as a LH Eric Gagne type then Robles is it. I hope his arm has recovered because I look forward to seeing triple digits from a lefty when Robles steps in at some point.
He's another shot at a major WAR reliever - I'm glad we have several of those.
And for Wells in CF... I still compare him to the D-Backs' Chris Young. Young has a .240 career batting average and has been a (deserved) All Star at the position.
I'd certainly take it from Wells if Guti is unable to provide that sort of play.
This year could be really fun regardless of record. I don't expect Catricala to make the team out of Spring Training, but both he and Nick Franklin are VERY confident kids who definitely believe they belong in the bigs.
I think it's great that Jack believes it too. Nice to know that "the worst draft pick of the first round" in 2009 and Mr. "Not any kind of prospect" both are being looked at as plus bats at glove positions.
Jack has said to trust the plan. This year and next he'll hopefully get to prove he was right.
~G
Just posted their top Mariners prospects list.
Trayvon isn't on it, but otherwise...I tend to like their lists more than most. I can absolutely see the argument for everybody on it. Carson Smith and Cam Hobson should be making an assault on these sorts of lists this year, but for the moment?
That's one of the better system snapshots around.
Maybe I'm just partial since they included my boy Maurer as a monster sleeper.
~G
has ever had a starting infield that were all taken in the same draft?
Ackley, Franklin, Seager, Catricala could all end up as MLB regulars -- all taken by Z and crew in their first Mariner draft.
Add in Brian Moran, who is a sound bet to make the pen at some point, Carraway and Gilheeney are useful arms, and it's still possible Poythress and James Jones could make the bigs in some capacity.
Absolutely a franchise-changing day (Steve Baron notwithstanding).
Always appreciate it when a 20-minute radio talk gets posted as a 10-second text report. ::cpoints::
That IS interesting, that Trayvon seems to be playing LO (left out).
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I'll believe that Saunders can hit, when I see it. But either (A) he can't, and he'll be in Tacoma, or (B) suddenly he can, in which case he's Wells-Plus. So either way, we win.
I'm thriiiiiilll-lllllled about Catricala. Even more taken aback that Wedge would be on him so quick. The Hargrove days were a long time ago.
For those who didn't see: Catricala followed up his SS homer and double with ---> two hits and a walk the next game.
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Hope Catricala shows that he enjoys playing 3B ... if not, there's a fallback, 100+ games at DH / LF / 3B etc.
So Do Hit Men, here we come :- )
If you're not into Paxton, Hultzen, Taijuan at all, then you're not a sports fan. Whattaya want from an up-and-coming team.
It's kind of like a staff full of GMoneys and JFros, both in terms of their erudition and their personalities.
Let's say that the M's traded Vargas for the #62 prospect in baseball, S2S is definitely one of the first few places you'd go.
To be fair, Smoak's the 1B, but otherwise that's a 1970's Dodger infield ... and we have the pitching-oriented future to go with it...
My bad luck that I was a Reds fan...
In the 'pen, Robles' crossfire, step-to-1B, come-around-the-corner motion might even add to the carnage.
At this point, he looks tailor-made for the bullpen. Closest thing I've seen to Arthur Rhodes in a while. Maybe our center fielder could pick up a 4-karat diamond earring for Robles ... gotta be part of the surge one way or another...
Is basically spot on, IMO. See here.
Now granted, I'm the same guy that told you that there's no way Tavaris comes back in a month from a grade 3 strain (read: tear) of the pec muscle. I still stand by that, so IMO that's not what he had.
But this?
So, in reality, as Spang said, if all is clear for Gutierrez by, say, April 1, you're still looking at about the third week in April before he's throwing up to professional grade.
At that point, you maybe send him out on a minor league rehab assignment, which carries him well into May.
No quick fix for this.
The good news, which Wahl noted, was that there is about a 70 percent athletic recovery rate from these types of injuries where the player comes back as strong.
That's about right. And that's for a partial tear, not a complete tear as Tavaris reportedly had. Pec muscle injuries are tough ones, especially for outfielders. One of the reasons Ackley moved to 1B in college was because he couldn't throw from the OF while he recovered from TJ surgery. Similarly, Franklin will be able to swing a bat before he'll be able to uncork a throw to home plate from CF.
So we can hope again that the diagnosis is a bit pessimistic.
I'm just glad we've prepped for an ineffective Guti with some of our roster moves, so we'll be able to handle a missing Guti. And better the first day of March than the first day of April for this injury.
~G
from a couple days ago.
It talks a bit more about his changes, and especially his struggles. He talks about how he had to hit the ball perfectly last year to do anything with it and now he has some flexibility, specifically inside fastballs. I also like the quiet confidence; I know I've been bad, I've fixed it, I don't expect you to believe me, I'll show you.
I wonder if he can get that platelet rich plasma treatment that seemed to help Cliff Lee's recovery when he injured his oblique?
none of them the best at each position individually, but each in the top five in the league at their position and as a group very effective. And what made their contributions enough was that Dodgers pitching along with a good but not great outfield. The BRM had LA outmanned at nearly every position, but with their pitching and overall strength LA managed to compete pretty well with their more superstar-laden rivals in the years 1974 through 1978.
Saunders sounds like a very self-aware kind of guy...and it's nice to see his confidence rising...last year he was way WAY inside his own head and overthinking every pitch. If he can play a little more naturally and shorten his swing just a little...he can still play...I need to see him live.
... even they can do some things that puts a burr under my saddle. For instance, they knock Danny Carroll for being 22 years old while playing at A+ High Desert. Never once do they speak about the fact that Carroll has lost a significant amount of playing time due to some freak accidents that put him long-term on the DL.
I hate that.
to know EVERYthing about my one team.
They didn't mention Raben's destroyed knees and injury issues either.
It's our job to know that and point it out. On a pure talent level they did a pretty good job of identifying the system's top guys.
~G
The M's assignee is an A's fan ... if I knew that much about ANY other team I'd be pretty proud of myself... much less knowing that much about every other team...
I have the first game of the Cactus League season blaring right now in my office and I haven't been this happy in easily three months, excluding some great evenings with my soon-to-be-fiance. Baseball is for love and joy...and the Mariners are a fun team again...even if they don't win this year. Let's not forget that. :)
FOUR home runs from the Ms...granted with the wind blowing out to right and all to the right side...but still...FUN!
Saunders, Peguero (remember him?), L-Rod and JESUS MONTERO (oppo-field crush!)...and none of tthem were cheapies except L-Rod's. Montero's went out to deep RCF and the crowd was pretty impressed. Peguero hit his half way into the outfield on field two of the As' facility and Saunders' was a rocket ball.