October 2018

Losing Pythag, winning games
Posted by rick82 on 10/15/18
5 Comments

I’m having a good Facebook conversation with SABRMatt regarding 538’s predictive model on the upcoming midterms. Conventional wisdom suggests the Democats will win the house - but a recent poll shows that although the Democrats have a big party preference nationally, in the contested races the Republicans hold a slim lead. I am calling this the “Edwin Diaz“ effect, that suggests a team like the Mariners can overachieve by winning the tight games, and breaking even or even losing the blowouts. Matt has even more interesting observations regarding the polling data and the assumptions - the data... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 10/10/18
Posted to blog
29 Comments

Hi guys, Was just released from the hospital after an 8-day stay in the ICU, which was a few inches away from fatal.  No need for sympathy :- ) but I wanted you to know there is a very good reason I’m contacting you so late.  You are my third outside contact after release from the ICU yesterday. Most are aware that some years ago I was diagnosed with Stage IV and given five months.  Here we are 4 years and 7 months later, up and around.  Turns out it's not the tumors that get you, it's the complications.  We faced this one head-on and vanquished it. Hopefully in a few days we'll be back and... Read More