I’m having a good Facebook conversation with SABRMatt regarding 538’s predictive model on the upcoming midterms. Conventional wisdom suggests the Democats will win the house - but a recent poll shows that although the Democrats have a big party preference nationally, in the contested races the Republicans hold a slim lead.
I am calling this the “Edwin Diaz“ effect, that suggests a team like the Mariners can overachieve by winning the tight games, and breaking even or even losing the blowouts.
Matt has even more interesting observations regarding the polling data and the assumptions - the data being used to predict house races is basically bad. Perhaps he will weigh in here - I hope. It reminds me of how poor umps can hide what is really going on with a hot pitching prospect.
Hopefully, this little post will generate some good discussion while we enjoy the Seattle Pilots march to the WORLD SERIES!
P.S., I am terrible at sizing and placing artwork here, so if it loooks terrible, forgive me and you’ll know why I deleted this after you see it.