May 2012
Posted by jemanji on 05/31/12
4 Comments
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=== You Won't Get Any Arguments About ... ? ===
... Zimmer being one of the Big Three college pitchers this year, a guy sure to be gone in the first ten picks, and a reasonable 1-1 pick.
... His development arc being Taijuan Walker amazing. He went to USF as a hitter, a real good one, but... well, he got moved the mound in 2010 almost as a joke, threw all of 5 innings that year, then BOOM in 2011 he is suddenly a Friday Night caliber major-college starter. It's as if he walked in off the street and just started beating all the best people in college... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 05/31/12
19 Comments
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=== What's Lame About 'Im ===
There really isn't much. Whatever you throw in this canning jar, I can ink "QUIBBLES" onto the lid real quick.
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Zimmer is very early in his career, so like we say, there are some naive things in his delivery, as there are in Taijuan's. You could say that he doesn't connect his shoulderline with the center fielder like Appel does. I'm not wild about the "trueness" of Zimmer's head down the CL and he doesn't get very dynamic acceleration of the belt buckle. These things are also true of Taijuan Walker.
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One of the... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 05/29/12
6 Comments
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=== You Won't Get Any Arguments About ... ? ===
... Gausman being worthy of a top-5 pick. Experts don't think that this draft has any player who stands out as a #1 overall, nor that it has the embarrassment of riches that a few others have had ... last year Anthony Rendon was a typical 1-1 but went #6 overall. In 2006, you had Max Scherzer, Tim Lincecum and Clayton Kershaw going outside the top five (behind Longoria, Morrow and others).
Mark Appel, Kevin Gausman, Kyle Zimmer, and Max Fried aren't considered up to the Hultzens, Bauers, Coles and... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 05/29/12
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=== What's Lame About 'Im ... ? ===
The one and only (major) knock on Gausman is the idea that he doesn't have a very good curve or slider, and may not ever develop one ... and you know how a pitcher with only two pitches is doomed to failure.
:- P
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=== Dr. D's Vibe ===
The photo above gives a sense of Gausman's strength-to-weight ratio. He reminds of Tim Lincecum, Ichiro, and Jered Weaver in terms of body control.
He's got a whippiness to his motion, a high front side and a "born to pitch" feel to his movements. We predict that Gausman will be gone... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 05/29/12
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=== You Won't Get Any Arguments About ... ? ===
... your suggestion that Mark Appel (rhymes with repel) is The Compleat Pitcher. He checks off 100 out of 100 items on a scout's clipboard and is this year's "professional already" college pitcher.
Appel is this year's Gerrit Cole, a guy who not only has a 92-98 MPH fastball, but who has three pitches, a very clean motion, command in this zone, a pitcher's body, you name it Appel ticks the checkmark. He's got the stats, too, including 108 strikeouts vs 22 walks and only 3 homers in 13 starts.
... you won't... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 05/29/12
4 Comments
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=== What's Lame About 'Im? ===
Stanford and U-Cal pitchers aren't the kinda guys you think of when you think of the gravel-chewing Jack Zduriencik. The sense lingers, that you are talking about a Brandon Morrow, Greg Reynolds, Gil Meche type here...
Put Gil Meche's head on Appel's body, in fact, and you could get a video past an FBI video recog program. Same butter-smooth delivery, same glassy 94 MPH, same full array of pitches, same ability to spot everything to different places in the strike zone ... and same puzzling lack of results.
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=== Dr. D's Vibe ===... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 05/29/12
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=== You Won't Get Any Arguments About ... ? ===
.... the proposition that Byron Buxton is a high-school player who makes a feasible #1 overall selection. Especially since none of the college players this year are irresistible.
... your swooning away over Buxton's athleticism. He is evidently a real freakazoid by any standards, an athlete in excess of even Justin Upton and B.J. Upton, a guy people talk about with Bo Jackson as being the legendary cross-sport athletes they've ever seen. Ever.
... the opinion that Buxton will play... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 05/29/12
1 Comments
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=== What's Lame About 'Im? ===
Watching Buxton swing makes me sick. I'd call that kind of lame, I guess.
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Well, that's kind of a James-ism, an overstatement to make sure the point sticks... still, point stands. When I watch Buxton swing I have to say to myself Eric Davis, Eric Davis, over and over.
The second half of this video should suffice. He's disorganized. Where's the weight transfer? Where's the leverage? ... he's got only 2 home runs this high school season, and they make excuses, talk about he never gets anything to hit. ... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 05/29/12
=== You Won't Get Any Arguments About ... ? ===
... the fact that Correa has a shortstop's arm. He set a Perfect Game record with a 97 MPH throw across the infield. (MLB.com says that there is no doubt about his ability to stick at shortstop, but every scout who dislikes Cal Ripken-style deep shorstops is already warning that Correa profiles at third.)
... the fact that Correa's stock is sky-high after his home runs at the Excellence tournament in Puerto Rico. If he goes 1-1 overall, few people will bust the Astros' chops about it.
... Correa's hitting upside. He has supposedly gone 450+... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 05/29/12
8 Comments
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=== What's Lame About 'Im? ===
There are a lot of people who question whether Correa will ever hit at the big league level, just because ... well, what do you know about him? Not much. ... it's not clear that Correa is doing anything more than Carlos Triunfel was doing at the same age. True, Correa is taller, more leveraged and has more projectable power.
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Correa is 6'4" with long legs, not a common body type for ML shortstop. SSI doesn't believe that there's anything inherently wrong with Cal Ripken ... it's like in the NFL, the 3-4 defense is fashionable... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 05/25/12
6 Comments
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Spectator's top 10 is more info-taining than many a top 10 we've seen from "celebrity" sources. Wish there were some way to disseminate it nationally. Ah well - it's only a matter of time :- )
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Spec pointed out earlier that being in AA at 19 portends impact in the majors. In this article he did a survey of the 13 such pitchers since 2000, and found that about half (including Felix and Greinke) have already become ML stars.
So what to say about a 19-year-old pitcher ... the only such who is IN double-A this... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 05/25/12
11 Comments
Devo Swag - for all your meltdown needs. Coming to an M's team store near you
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=== Blake Beavan ===
Dr. D throughly admired his moxie and his command. And he caught Prince Albert with a couple of early-count changeups. Tonight he threw the ball well, by his standards. He executed pitches just about as well as he can execute them.
Watching batters with 53 OPS+'s pop the ball up, and watching Albert Pujols whack the ball out of the park, a sudden thought occurred. I wonder if Blake Beavan's unusually good at catching rabbits, and unusually susceptible to being... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 05/25/12
9 Comments
Chris Chambliss' age-27 season landed him #5 in the MVP voting
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=== Michael Saunders ===
Is swinging the bat very well. He seems to be grooving in his stroke, the one in which his bat stops at the 1B foul line and the the one in which he finishes with his belt buckle pointed at the shortstop. He is swinging that way more and more often, and looking more and more natural as he does it.
His OPS+ is slightly above 100, and he's on pace for almost 3.0 WAR. Do you remember center field last season?
Player
WAR
Guti (92 games)
+1.1
Saunders
-0.5
Langerhans
-0.... Read More
Posted by admin on 05/25/12
To SSI commentators and readers: As you might have noticed, a rather large chunk of your comments from the past several days have gone missing. Although the comment system is up and working, we will need to do some work to restore the missing comments to the site. We sincerely appologize to you for this glitch and appreciate your patience as we correct this problem.
Posted by jemanji on 05/24/12
3 Comments
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=== Still With Fangs Down To Their Chins ===
.... though Danny Haren doesn't strike you as all that goth, probably. I dunno, is the werewolf look included in the fad or is it just vampires and, um, zombies?
Bill James' 'Pitcher Rankings' paradigm basically treats the last 2-3 seasons as one continuous season, underlining pitchers who have demonstrated their excellence. My favorite use of the 'World's #1 Pitcher' tool right now, is the large, overarc'ing insights into which teams may be playing over their heads. And which teams may be ripe for a surge in the... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 05/24/12
6 Comments
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=== Baseball Prospectus, Dept. ===
In a 4-game series, the M's will be made monkeys of by only one more Angels ace, that on Sunday. Very cool. The next two days they face pitchers who aren't stars, who throw right handed. They'll have no excuses. If they're trying to play meaningful baseball, they need to put up good performances on Friday and Saturday before they face the lefty-killer Wilson on Sunday.
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The Angels have had a terrible start to the season, 25 losses already, and even if they play at a 95-win pace the rest of the way, they'll still only win 88-... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 05/24/12
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=== Splits ===
It so happens that Miggy was injured on April 30, which makes for some easy-squeezee splits.
W-L
OPS
tOPS
K/9
K/BB
ERA
April
11-13
715
107
7.2
2.7
4.14
May
10-12
665
93
7.4
2.4
3.57
The tOPS of 107 in April means that, as compared to the Seattle Mariners' own 2012 stats, the enemy batters in April were 7% better than for the overall season. With Montero and Jaso behind the plate in April, enemy hitters were 93 OPS+ batters, so to speak; with Olivo catching in April, they were 107 OPS+ hitters.
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=== Dr's Diagnosis ===
There is one conclusion... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 05/24/12
1 Comments
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Thanks for keepin' the chair warm, Mr. Montero, but the catching situation now has somebody else on the hot seat. If he wants to win the most games possible, that is.
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=== Thought #1 ===
Olivo arrives in the clubhouse, and the Red Sea parts for Olivo's passage. He taps Montero on the shoulder, and everybody moves down one chair -- Jaso and his 115 OPS+, 6:8 EYE lefty bat to "deep freeze."
There is one thing, and one thing only, that chaps my keister about this situation. It is that the Seattle Mariners are hotter than a firecracker.
Not only have they won 6 games in a... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 05/23/12
7 Comments
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Kudos for the amigos sticking up for Blake Beavan. The M's current winning streak is due to the 3-4-5 starters, a group I've moaned about all year, and Beavan after all has a bodacious string of quality starts decals fixed to his helmet.
Rebuking SSI for being only interested in raw stuff, however, this gentlemen is going too far. :- ) You're going to scold a Doug Fister Fan Club president that mechanics, command and pitchability can matter too? Yeah, that one will hold up. LOL.
Dr. D put up with a good year's worth of flak for Fister, singling him out as a AAA... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 05/22/12
Right now you've got Dr. D confused about what comes next there, Hector
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Q. What happened out there? Noesi fanned 7 and gave up only 3 hits. To the Rangers. Not much was hit hard after the first inning.
A. For one thing, his fastball command was there.
He slowed his tempo a bit on the backstroke, and finished nose-to-leather a little bit better. There were subtle differences in his motion, which we could side-to-side ... ahhhh, it's kinda late and the differences ain't much.
Noesi was underlining his little "pause at the top" Nippon-style hitch to slow his... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 05/22/12
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Q. What happened on the offense?
A. It was bemusing that, after three days of thematic discussion on the M's plate discipline .... they promptly went out and powerflushed a with swings on pitches outside the strike zone.
Jesus Montero's garbage swing at the 2-2 sucker pitch in the 1st inning was a tragedy, and it saved Harrison's 35-pitch keister that inning. Man alive there dude, what's the hurry? You've got a lefty and you love right field.
In the 8th, with two men on, Justin Smoak got a 3-2 pitch from Mike Adams and Smoak knew IN THE HUDDLE that he was going to... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 05/22/12
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Here, review this video highlight from last night, the double that Montero smoked into the LF corner, on which Seager scored from 1B. Watch the movement of the catcher's glove while the pitch is in flight. I mean, is that funny or what? Watch the glove!
After you watch the glove a few times, then put your eyes into the catcher's, and visualize the pitch coming in, WAY wild, into the hitter, enough to hit him maybe. It's like a wild pitch, inside. Then visualize what happens to the ball.
On a pitch that ticks the inside of the plate, the challenge is to keep the... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 05/22/12
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You'll hear scouts use the phrase. "Konerko legimitizes that lineup in Chicago." What they mean is, as the pitcher throws to the three or four guys ahead of Konerko, they're thinking about Konerko. You don't want to see him come up with two men on base. If you can contain Konerko and the White Sox aren't all that scary.
Of course, while Edgar was here, the Mariners' lineup was automatically legitimate, whether Griffey and ARod were here or not.
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My favorite thing about this article, admittedly, was the stampede of traffic it caused to... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 05/20/12
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My son and I got into a food fight a coupla days ago. Watching John get irate is sort of what you'd imagine it being like if you saw Blake Beavan throw a fastball by Troy Tulowitzki.
He was disgusted with the M's, jumped all over me why do you watch these guys, this is ridiculous, yada yada yada. I go, if the Seahawks are going 6-10 but they got the rookie Tom Brady and stuff like that, do you watch? He re-raises, gloating that nobody but Seager's any good, you make a fool out of yourself by thinking they're anything but a mortal lock to lose 100 games....
He's... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 05/20/12
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Q. What are his stats in 2012?
A. He's hitting .159/.229/.477, which is what has prevented Seattle from realizing that Carp is in the process of taking a big plateau leap forward as we watch.
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Q. There you go. We're waiting for his bat to warm up. IF it's going to.
A. Carp's BABIP is .107.
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Q. Oh.
A. He's hit 4 home runs in 44 AB's, once again on pace for 40+ dingers (I know, but) -- this despite the injury and the sporadic playing time and shaking the rust off. This man can hit a mortal ton.
His shot in Coors Sunday had a "true" distance of 419 feet, was out... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 05/17/12
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You caught Dr. D in one of his copious beatific moods this morning. That you might share in his bliss, he bids you brew a gentle cup of saffron tea and peruse the state of the Taijuan. Spectator is doing a serene rundown of the M's Top 40 right now ... in this article he's got embedded video of Taijuan.
IF you never quite understood what it meant to "throw downhill" then simply groove to the visual of the pitch embedded in Spec's May 16 article. Spend the next six hours of your "workday" googling, and if you can find a pitch coming down out of the sky more sharply than... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 05/17/12
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Most pitchers need 300 innings in the minors. Taijuan Walker is a pitcher. Ergo, Taijuan Walker needs 300 innings in the minors. QED.
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You know the drill. Jemanji sponges shamelessly off baseball's Aristotle, hoping that his own sycophantic voluntary service as a 3K/day Googlead for BJOL will atone for a some considerable portion of his netiquette transgressions.
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Have you, personally, settled on any basic principles as to the innings loads for a young star pitcher, say, a Clayton Kershaw type?
Are there circumstances under which you... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 05/17/12
Dr D's version of a bullpen switch
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Q. Does Dr. D really expect the M's to re-boot in May?
A. 'course not. The M's are a mortal lock to keep them down until the latter part of June, anyway, as they did Ackley. Our little think tank ain't been hired to provide consultations, babe. We're cracking peanuts in the bleachers ... increasingly sitting by ourselves in empty stands.
That's too high! It's too high! ... oh.
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Q. Could the M's re-boot while leaving the Big Three down in the minors?
A. Sure. We... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 05/17/12
Sometimes the first draft didn't turn out to be quite what you'd envisioned
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Q. What about Taijuan?
A. OK, let's say your take is different than mine. You think that Paxton and Hultzen got work to do. Agree to disagree. Then what's the story on Taijuan Walker? He's got only 11 walks on the year and his motion is set, too. What's the excuse for his not being in Safeco?
If it's innings load, fine and dandy. Let him do a Santana out of the bullpen for two months - next year too; the M's had Santana in and out of the pen for three years. The... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 05/17/12
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Dr. D, sitting in the GM's seat, DOES and DOES NOT:
Does NOT throw up his hands and say "well, we knew were were going to be Texas' girlfriend anyway." There are 122 games left and when it comes to pain, he'd rather give than receive. Rather, he does a Billy Beane on the clubhouse soda machine and tells his club This Stops Now.
Just FYI.
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Dr. D DOES remove Brandon League from short relief. For tomorrow's game. This is not a knee-jerk response. It was more than two weeks ago that SSI called for League's jettison.
It would have been nice to see it... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 05/17/12
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Dr. D DOES bring up James Paxton and Danny Hultzen. The cost is $4M each, long term, because of Super Two. Staring down the barrel of a summerful of 8,000 attendances, he spends this money.
You guys is awesome, but if you think there is any kind of "pecking order" in which Andrew Carraway (or even Erasmo Ramirez) reside along with Paxton and Hultzen, you hallucinatin', Simon. Like the Mariners are going to evaluate Carraway against Paxton to decide which one will stake the M's future?
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Paxton's throwing 96 MPH now. In two years, he might not be, much less... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 05/17/12
1 Comments
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Grumpy sez, speaking for all of us,
Blech. This is getting tiresome.
"We're going to lose the ratings on Friday this season. Sometimes that's the way the cookie crumbles." - Dan Miller to super-CEO Robin Stone, The Love Machine by Jacqueline Susann
"My cookie doesn't crumble." - Stone, acidly, in reply
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Dr. D loves Seattle, and note carefully that his wife is a classic soccer mom. However, there are certain aspects of the region he could do without. One is the soccer mom mentality surrounding the Mariners: oh, well, if we don't win... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 05/16/12
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Shifting that puts lefty hitters' bank accounts into the red, that is.
Does it seem to you that the Mariners have seen a lot of shifting? They have. John Dewan is the guy I listen to the most about defensive stats in baseball, but don't let that sour you on him. He's the author of The Fielding Bible, and provides interactive updates on his work at BJOL. This week his article is titled "Shifty Business."
He finds that in 2010 and 2011, MLB teams deployed the shift about 1,900 times per season. In 2012, however, there has been a Cambrian Explosion of lefty-shifting... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 05/15/12
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As we've mentioned a time or three, you can get about $30 per month's worth of value for $3 per month at Bill James Online. One of the Disney "Lands" at the site is the weekly column ... this week it had James' scouting report, er, notes 'scuse me, on the Mariners' visit to Fenway.
It's behind the pay wall, but BJOL sez us that they don't mind excerpts with credit, so .... here are a few of the things that impressed the Founding Father about the M's on Tuesday ...
The Mariners are physically impressive.
Blake Beavan is a beast; he looks like he is 6-7, and his... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 05/14/12
=== Taking His OBP In a New Direction, Dept. ===
Probably there are a few amigos here who hadn't noticed that Dustin Ackley has a 10-game hitting streak on. This coincides with his batting leadoff, from which slot he has batted .304/.396/.457 this season.
Here is a TexasLeaguers.com scatterchart for Ackley during this 10-game hitting streak:
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Outside the leadoff spot, Ackley has hit .221/.275/.305 this season. Here is the 2012 scatterchart prior to May 3; dig the blizzard of topped 4-3 groundouts ...
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Go back and check the May 3 - 14 scatterchart... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 05/14/12
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Toss out your morning New York Times crossword puzzle, or Sudoku, or Skip-O-Vision translation ring game, and tackle something much more challenging this morning. Which of the following numbers does not belong?
SEA rank among 30 teams
O-Swing
Z-Swing
Contact%
Zone%
SwStr%
F-Strike%
HR
ISO
26
23
16
1
14
16
13
18
The Mariners see more strikes than any other team - a lot more strikes. Over 49% of pitches delivered to the M's are thrown inside the strike zone, compared to 45% for the league. Only three other teams are even over 47.0%.
This contributes to a BB rate that is... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 05/12/12
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=== He who answers a matter before he hears it, it is a folly and shame to him Dept. ===
The sufi judge hears the prosecutor's case. In this instance, the case was better-prepared and more well thought out than a George Karl offensive set. The sufi judge allows the prosecutor to wrap up, ponders, and nods his head. "That's right. Absolutely right. Sentencing is set for ..."
The defense attorney objects instanter. "You can't sentence before the defense is heard!" Judge snaps back to present time. "Oh, that's right." The lawyer presents a case even better than the... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 05/12/12
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=== Mike Carp Crawls Out of the Coffin ===
Has an unusually dynamic swing load when he's seeing the ball good. It reminds you of Junior's swing trigger.
Check the position of Carp's head , and look in picture #3 at the coiling effect of his entire body, especially the closing distance between his knee and his front shoulder. And it's as if he's jumping down into the path of the baseball...
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That's the basic idea, but it looks way better live. You can get a sense of of the acceleration into the coil, a ready-to-pounce effect that Ken Griffey Jr.... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 05/11/12
Don't look back ... somethin' might be gainin' on ya
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See also: Felix Now With the Mariano Rivera Cutter?
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=== The King ... Invades ===
Two starts ago, threw 14 Mariano Rivera cutters. Last start, he threw two that I could discern. Tonight in NYY, he threw 19.
The F/X system can't even begin to classify Felix' cutter against his changeup and slider; we did it by hand, looking at clusters in his strike zone graphs. The slider was as effective as Rivera's are. They produced roughly the same results.
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Consider the first cut fastball that Felix threw on the... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 05/11/12
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=== Gameflow ===
Felix threw great, real great, but not his Grade A game. His pitches were half-a-baseball to a whole baseball flatter than they usually are, except the new cutter.
Funny, The King himself referred to his sinker flattening out on the Rauuuuul homer. That was going to be our postgame, the fact that Felix had an odd lack of bite on his pitches tonight. ::shrug:: That's life, mon ami.
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The New York Yankees have one signal attribute possessed by no other team in baseball. They never get starry-eyed when going against celebrity baseball... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 05/11/12
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=== Jesus Montero ===
Went yard in his first game back at Yankee, delighting the fans who have seen not only Pineda but now Campos bite the dust. If you got a good NY chat board link this morning, light me up babe. :- )
The homer came on a 2-2 slider that was PERFECTLY located, a vicious pitcher's pitch. Right on the black, knee high.
Kuroda executed the best low-away slider of which he was capable. Montero bent his knees, leaned out, and rifled it into the RF bleachers. There are maybe twelve guys in the AL who are capable.
I don't specifically remember Edgar... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 05/09/12
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Sometimes when we're playing softball with a coed group, a 5-year-old will go up there between innings, wanting to hit. The pitcher will lob the ball in from the rubber. She'll trying to throw it more softly, which is impossible, when you think about the physics involved ....
Dr. D will kid around and come "relieve" the pitcher. He steps up 15 feet from home, bids the kids take a practice swing, and watches for where the bat's going. He then tosses the ball onto the bat. Bingo, a 5-year-old can hit, with eyes closed no less ...
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Vargas throws three... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 05/09/12
Think Selig would O.K. a game or two with this helmet for the UNC kid? Hey, think of the merchandising.
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The Detroit Tigers won 95 games last year; the Rangers won 96 and the Yankees 97, forming a stellar Orion's Belt of megateams in the American League.
The major changes that they've made have not been to swap a great 300-lb. pitcher for a great catching prospect. By "changes" the Detroit Tigers mean "additions." Such as adding a $200,000,000 Prince Fielder to hit cleanup, and to call up Drew Smyly to strike out 9 men per game in their #5 rotation slot.
This... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 05/09/12
In the 9th tonight, Dr. D couldn't see himself pulling back up to the platform with his 15-18 record intact.
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=== SrFrBoi43 ===
Walked the leadoff hitter, Austin Jackson.
Please ponder this a moment. It's a 2-1 game, your second ace has gone nutsoid, you bring in your closer and .... he walks the tying run on with nobody out. Let me know the next time the Angels or Rangers cut you that break.
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It so happened that the next man, Boesch, hit a screaming meemie that tore Brendan Ryan's glove off. Now, read this next sentence a little slower than you did the last... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 05/08/12
John Jaso is, as things stand now, a role player in the major leagues. Bobby Abreu is on the lip of baseball's Hall of Fame, having 53 of 50 points on the HOF Standards test and 94 of 100 points on the HOF Monitor test. Still and all, scouts use "prototypes" to give a sense of a playing style. Danny Hultzen pitches in Cole Hamels style. James Paxton pitches in Mark Mulder style. John Jaso is, right now, playing in Bobby Abreu style.
Abreu has something of a topspin swing, giving him a moderately high groundball rate, yet with home run capability and lots of line drives. Jaso has the... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 05/08/12
This article by Geoff Baker is one of his best ever, which is saying quite a bit. Far beyond a simple interview with Zduriencik, Baker gives a Ground Zero look into the way a real-world GM and manager sort out roster decisions.
Dr. D gets a bit weary sometimes of the bloggers who condescend from behind their monitors that "Wedge is a terrible talent evaluator" when, in fact, every talent evaluation that the Seattle Mariners make represents the combined expertise of dozens of people. In the Mariners' case right now, many of those people are the best in the business at what they do.
Yes,... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 05/07/12
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=== Previously on L.A. Law ===
In the late 1980's, Bill James demonstrated that batting orders don't matter. In a Strat-O-Matic sense, anyway. Later, others followed this. The pioneering idea was never altered much.
If the Texas Rangers were to move Nelson Cruz to leadoff and drop Ian Kinsler to #6, they'd lose 20 R in the leadoff slot and lose 20 RBI in the #6 slot. But! Guess what else ... you guessed it. The Rangers would gain 20 RBI in the leadoff slot and gain 20 runs scored in the #6 slot.
James, in one of his inventive studies, created a "worst possible"... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 05/07/12
Ichiro caught this one.
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=== Ichiro from leadoff to #3 ===
We wrote an article or ten this winter and spring, gingerly predicting that Ichiro would benefit from having men on base in front of him. He seems to feel more responsibility to the team when hitting in the middle of rallies, and less responsibility toward his 200-hit geas.
Ichiro had 0.2 WAR at the finish of the 2011 season; he's got 1.3 WAR so far this season, with 19% of the schedule completed, leaving him on pace for 6.8 WAR. He is totally rejuvenated - Dr. Grumpy's suggestion that Ichiro's... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 05/07/12
Impatience is a uniquely human failing.
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=== Ackley from #2-3 to #1 ===
Going into Monday's game, Dustin Ackley had played six games from the leadoff slot and his OBP had been... wait for it ... .444. He had visibly throttled down his over-ambitious swing, presumably because he now sees his job as becoming Johnny Damon, as opposed to Stan Musial.
Dr. D is all too habituated to the "SSS Alert!" shtick that is epidemic in the blog-o-sphere. Permit him to pivot away from the elevator shaft while the SSS tackler plummets headlong into the abyss of... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 05/07/12
Big day for m' man Sgt. Wedge
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=== Montero #4 and Seager #5 ===
When Dotel came in and walked Ryan, and walked Ichiro, something happened that hadn't happened for quite a while. Dr. D thought, "we're behind and the other guys are in big trouble."
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We know that Justin Smoak did not respond well to hitting cleanup. It's fascinating that Montero is completely comfortable in the slot. The at-bat in the ninth, for example ... Dotel wound up and threw. He's behind again, 1-0. I'm thinking please don't help him out man, please don't help him out. Dotel went to 2-0. I'... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 05/07/12
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=== Brendan Ryan ===
Folks are singing the praises of using Ryan in the 2 slot. Does SSI see the bright side of this one, as well?
SSI loathes this idea. We'll tell you exactly why.
We understand the notion that Ryan can be "pesky" from the 2 slot, making "productive outs," and having some of those hit-and-run grounders go through. The proposition is to maximize the value of Ryan's batted balls. Also, Tony LaRussa used to put Dave Henderson #2 behind Rickey, in front of the Bash Brothers, because he got the fastballs he craved (Hendu never could hit a wrinkly pitch... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 05/07/12
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Shame they ain't called that this year, ain't it? When they actually have got some diamonds.
... Does anybody know why they changed their logo? This was one of my all time fave logos AND nicknames :- ) ... maybe the city of Jackson kicked in some green to get their name in there.
If you didn't catch the TV broadcast, Mike Blowers relayed a report from Jack Zduriencik.
Jay-Z went to the doubleheader that Spec talked about at The Stalk. He sez, he goes to the DH and James Paxton is throwing 96 miles per hour. Paxton came out and Pryor came in and Pryor was throwing ... 100... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 05/05/12
5 Comments
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In October of 1961, the Soviets set off a hydrogen bomb that, for all intents and purposes, set the limits of power for such a weapon (due to fallout affecting the initiator). When the Russkies lit up the 55-megaton "Tsar Bomba", the fireball alone blazed 5 miles in diameter and the mushroom cloud blossomed 200,000 feet into the air, about eight times the height of Mt. Everest. The cloud was 25 miles in diameter.
Picture a single bomb going off in Seattle, and blowing to smithereens all concrete and brick structures in ... Tacoma. Mammals being terminated by the heat in... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 05/05/12
2 Comments
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Funny how Jesus Montero's pitch calling is just fine when Jason Vargas or Felix Hernandez is out there able to execute the signs he puts down, isn't it?
Felix shook Montero off a ton, to which I can confidently say, who cares. At worst, this shakeoff routine means that Olivo vs. Montero is 100% a non-issue with a good pitcher on the mound. At best ... what? Hmmmmm...
Don't quote me, kiddies. But watching Jesus Montero for several days, I'm getting a creeping suspicion that he is an overall better defensive catcher than Miguel Olivo. To paraphrase my fave beat writer, I'... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 05/05/12
2 Comments
M's MOTO ready to shift gears?
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Boy, if we didn't know better, we'd have thought that Eric Wedge had found a 3-4-5 MOTO on Saturday, neh? In 2010 and 2011, any resemblance to baseball had been strictly coincidental. In 2012, the future is already, in May, beginning to jell a bit:
Kyle Seager is slugging .512 on the year and he is more of an SSI Best Bet than he was when I wrote the article. The grounder rate continues to skim the moguls effortlessly at 30%. The flyballs are clearing the fences like African impala. When Seager wants to go up the middle or... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 05/03/12
2 Comments
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G-Money pulls a fascinating comp:
Seager is the Jose Lopez we all wanted. Except from the left side. He has one walk in 80 ABs - ONE. If you pro-rate last year to 600 PAs he only walks about 35 times. This year it's far less. But it doesn't matter - he HITS. Is a guy that white allowed to hit like a Latin dude? He sure looks like a .280-.300 bat with 50 points of patience and WAY more thump than he's been given credit for.
Yes, it's pull-HR-only power, just like it was with Lopez, except that Seager is pulling it to a favorable part of the park instead of Death... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 05/02/12
4 Comments
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=== Sizzlers: 2012 Mariners ===
Three straight tight losses to the Rays -- who are 11-1 in their weird little mausoleum -- have us all a little strung out. But take some Vitamin C and chill: the Mariners are ahead of where we figured they'd be on May 1.
Despite seeing a month's worth of oppressive enemy pitching, they have an 89 OPS+ despite some lag in their BABIP, compared to 82 last year and 79 the year before. They have the #3 outside-zone swing rate in the AL and they are battling; tonight James Shields, with massive stuff, had 119 pitches in 6 innings and gave up... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 05/02/12
3 Comments
It's two strikes and he's going ... offspeed?
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=== Fizzlers: Chone Figgins ===
Wedge remarked on Baggins: "tomorrow he has good numbers against that guy so we'll get him in there but it's getting time" .... ULP!! Cue nervous sidling away from Baggins in the clubhouse.
Tell you exactly where that comes from. Sgt. Wedge has reached his limit on Chone's strikeouts. He told Chone (as it were), this ends now, or else. Go out there and put the ball in play. And then Figgins, nervously, doing everything he can to impress, goes out tonight .... and fans 3 times. Sgt.... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 05/02/12
6 Comments
There are some people in here whose swings aren't as quick as we'd like
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=== Fizzlers: Timmmm-berrrrrr ===
In Ball Four, Jim Bouton has a funny scene in which the 1969 Astros gave their team cook grief all night over his menu. "Man, Whitey, here we are fighting for a pennant and you serve us 4th-place food?" After hours of withering scorn, things settle down for a few minutes. But then one of the ballplayers walks by, looks at him with contempt, and says, "That's a horse puckey shirt you're wearing, too, Whitey."
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I'm a big fan of Justin Smoak's, and... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 05/02/12
15 Comments
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=== Fizzlers: Hector (vs Achilles) ===
His three true outcomes are 5 strikeouts, 4 walks, and 2 homers per nine innings. I'll tell ya, kid, the toughest thing about food in Saigon is trying to keep it from crawling out of the bowl as you're eating it.
Worse, he doesn't have his own game together. He can't execute the 4-pitch game and now he can't do the stripped-down 2-pitch thingy. Why do his next 150 innings have to be in Safeco?
He's talented and he's workin' it. His curve and slider are breaking much better than they did last year. Some day the kid might be one... Read More