Except from the left side. He has one walk in 80 ABs - ONE. If you pro-rate last year to 600 PAs he only walks about 35 times. This year it's far less. But it doesn't matter - he HITS. Is a guy that white allowed to hit like a Latin dude? He sure looks like a .280-.300 bat with 50 points of patience and WAY more thump than he's been given credit for.
Yes, it's pull-HR-only power, just like it was with Lopez, except that Seager is pulling it to a favorable part of the park instead of Death Valley. Jose hit 17 and 25 HRs his 2 good years, both with 40+ doubles. I'd like better walks, and I think Seager's will increase as guys get scared of his wheelhouse, but his two HRs had the pitcher pounding the outside edge to death...so Seager just went out and slapped a ball through the hole the other way. He has a complete approach with his swing.
If this is the Kyle Seager we're going to get, who can do time at 2nd and spot-appearances at short to boot, then he's an integral part of the Mariners going forward.
Smoak, on the other hand...
Smoak is 25, with more major league experience than almost all the kids on this team. He's gotta get it together. I think this "swing aggressively, don't let hittable pitches go by unchallenged" approach is hurting him most. Guys like Carp and Seager are those kind of swingers anyway.
But Smoak (and Ackley) are anglers, dangling bait til they get the bite they're looking for - at which point it's dinner time.
Smoak will always get into deep counts, working around to a pitch he wants. If he's in a slump, he'll get it and miss it. If he's on, then he CRUSHES it. Only he's not crushing anything from either side of the plate, and his slump is looking like a 40 year stroll through the desert sucking on tree sap. They're messing with his game.
Smoak's game is more like Saunders's. Big guys, long levers, averages aren't great but with walks + power the aggregate can be really productive. But Smoak is supposed to be the better attempt at the archetype, not Saunders. Smoak has handedness protection, previously showed a much better ability to draw walks...
Justin's got one double and 6 walks on the year. He's not playing his game. His batting average is .184. There's no good reason for this. He's gonna have to re-locate his approach and not miss his pitch when it gets to the plate, and he's gonna have to do it from the 7 or 8 hole. Justin was considered one of those "vets" that was gonna get his run of the place in April.
He failed. Now you remove vet entitlement and proceed forward. Liddi plays more, Justin plays less and lower in the batting order. Justin can't be the switch-hitting Casey Kotchman we didn't want. He's got to be the .260/.340/.480 dude we paid for.
Hope you find it, Smoak. I believe in ya, but right now Taro is rubbing his evaluation of you in my face, and my evaluation of Seager isn't enough to offset this shame.
Get with it. :)
~G
...............
=== Fizzlers: Hector (vs Achilles) ===
His three true outcomes are 5 strikeouts, 4 walks, and 2 homers per nine innings. I'll tell ya, kid, the toughest thing about food in Saigon is trying to keep it from crawling out of the bowl as you're eating it.
Worse, he doesn't have his own game together. He can't execute the 4-pitch game and now he can't do the stripped-down 2-pitch thingy. Why do his next 150 innings have to be in Safeco?
He's talented and he's workin' it. His curve and slider are breaking much better than they did last year. Some day the kid might be one of the league's 20 best starting pitchers. That day ain't today. It also ain't next month. Hector of Troy was brave and talented also, but it didn't keep him from getting drug behind a chariot by his feet, arms trailing over his head.
Sgt. Wedge said of Montero, "he's got a whale of a lot of work to do to be a #1 catcher." Any chance of their identifying the distance between Mr. Noesi and his finish line, too?
.
=== Sizzlers: Erasmo Ramirez ===
Got his month of light usage. Is dailing in. If he hit the rotation now, he'd be miles short of 200 innings. As fans, our powers of persuasion are quite limited. Where is the wizard Thoth-Amon when you need him?
.
=== Fizzlers: Blake Beavan ===
What, NOW, after 20 career starts, a shortstop takes you deep to cut your lead to 3-2 .... and he runs you off the strike zone? Beavan spent his next three innings Wednesday nibbling and picking, throwing outside fastballs 18 inches off the plate, and hoping something or someone would bail him out. It didn't occur.
The jury is still out on Beavan, and SSI has constantly nagged about his 4.0 strikeout rate. At 20 starts, he's on his 2nd-3rd trip around the league. He needs to prove that he can't be booked. Tonight, after Rodriguez' HR, he reacted like a guy who got carded at the rave and hauled out by security guards.
.............
Dr. D noted that Sgt. Wedge yanked Beavan early in each of his last two starts. Sgt. Wedge, a former catcher, loves to give his SP's those extra-batter hugs. Tonight he was gone after 86 pitches; the start before, Beavan was yanked one batter short of a quality start and one batter short of a chance to win the game (in the next inning's rally, which the M's did in fact lay down).
I don't say it's the gospel truth. But it looks like Wedge is getting quite edgy with Beavan and Noesi.
.
=== Sizzlers: Paxton, Hultzen and Taijuan ===
The scouts are saying that the AA hitters can't press them. When you have no fear of failure, you can't take your game to the next level. You have to be facing an opponent who -- your best against his best -- can beat you.
The 7th years are locked in. At this point, all you are risking is $4-5M of extra salary in a (potential) Super Two year. They would earn more than $4-5M on the field in May-June 2012. What, are you going to shoot for holding them until June TWO THOUSAND THIRTEEN?
They've graduated the high minors, Hultzen and Taijuan certainly, and Paxton as soon as you ensure that the little control wrinkle isn't anything scary.
.
=== Sizzlers: Jay-Z ===
We thought the Big Four were Ackley, Montero, Carp and Smoak. Slap me silly, three blue-chippers have joined the party: Seager, Saunders, and Liddi. Do the M's have a dynamic young ballclub or what?
.
=== Fizzlers: Veteran Entitlement ===
The Mariners have six or eight major problems holding them back: Figgins, Smoak, Ryan, the 3-4-5 starters, and the bullpen. It flippin' boggles Dr. D's mind that each of these problems are solved with a DECISION to deploy players. Players that are the ones you intend to win your next pennant with.
The M's said they owed their veterans April. Anybody got a calendar?
.
Cheers,
Dr D
Comments
Just posted above that I'm worried that Smoak has lost his ability to sit on a pitch, not so much his ability to hurt it.
I just see a guy with no approach, except to go up there hacking.
A guy like smoak needs to be willing to concede the terrific pitch, but beat the tar out of the mistake in his zone. I'm not seeing a zone.
moe
Smoaky's game may be like Saunders', but maybe the rubber band solution wouldn't work for him. It's a little late for that during the season. You're right, play Liddi more if his results are better than Smoak's. This also goes for Carp and Wells. Are there no MLB-ready bats down on the farm?
Just posted my thoughts on Smoak as well as the Ms instruction to prospects over at MC.
Summary is essentially ... I think Smoak (and the rest of the Ms prospects) are getting instructed to be more aggressive. I think the "best case" result for Smoak is actually Nick Johnson ... but I have no sense that the club can or will get him there, as they are fixated on getting a Teixeira instead.
the concern about Wedge's approach is the essence of the problem or if it's the inordinate pressure being put on a slew of young players all at the same time with little or no effective veteran support.
I was greatly concerned going into the season about the lack of productive veterans to take the burden off young players still trying to figure out how to remain productive in MLB over more than a few games.
But one thing about the potential of a Wedge issue: the longer he pressures players to adopt the approach he insists on, and the longer that approach is either not adopted or unsuccessfully implement, the more the players will just begin to tune him out and he will lose the clubhouse.
I seem to remember that Liddi has been whacking the ball pretty well lately.
I seem to remember that Montero has been on a huge mashing streak lately.
I seem to remember that Figgins has been nothing remotely close to decent lately.
And yet, with Carp in the lineup today, Wedge keeps Figgins in LF and sits BOTH Liddi and Montero, who he could have DH'ed just by playing Carp in LF.
Carp is adequate in LF, no less so than Figgins. If Carp can't throw because the shoulder then he was the wrong guy to bring up.
Playing Figgins and sitting two of your three hottest bats is a move of mysterious stupidity. Please explain.
I'm not yet ready to reconsider my prodiction that Wedge is gone by the All-Star break.
I can't think of a decision that he's made that was worth bragging about.
Guti's injury meant he had to keep Saunders. That has generally paid off.
Carp's shoulder injury allowed him to keep Liddi, who he deep-sixed for three weeks at the end of the bench.
Every time Jaso played he did something nice. He played every other week, or so.
Figgins moving to LF meant Seager got in the lineup. That has worked out. It was accidental, however.
Figgins now: 0 'fer his last 15, and 4-36 with 3 walks. That means our leadoff hitter has been on base 7 of his last 39 plate appearances.
He's had 28 K's, 18 hits and 8 walks this season. And he's only a tolerable LF glove.
I have tried very hard the last week to quit bashing Figgins. For all I know, he's a nice guy. But he's a terrible ball player right now. One with no bright future. Trotting him out in LF every day is the other side of absurd.
Veterans, schmeterans! Wedge's job is to develop kids and field his best lineup.
Truthfully, I don't trust him with either.
Our deck is stacked. I don't think we have the guy who can deal those particular cards.
Maybe another deck. Not this one.
moe
the lineup today was dicatated by the pitcher, whose splits are something like .084 vs LHP and .312 vs RHP. That was brought out in the pregame. So Wedge fielded and ALL LHB lineup.
Tough to get 9 lefties out there because you need a bats L, throws R player at C, 2B, SS, and 3B .... I looooooved it, and they gave Neimann all he wanted...
7th and 8th, Rays brought in the 95 MPH lefty and presented the bill, as it were.
The M's aren't hacking at everything. They're letting balls go by, and they're swinging hard at pitches in the zone. For everybody but Smoak, that's probably a step up.
A Prince Fielder or Adrian Gonzalez in the middle of the lineup, suddenly everybody would look quite a bit better, wouldn't they :- )
..............
M's have about an 88 OPS+, and that's pretty much because of Baggins, Olivo, and Ryan.
I'm probably the only one, but I think Wedge's offensive preaching is helpful rather than harmful. Do wish he'd let Smoak (and perhaps Saunders) just take pitches until he sees what he wants.
Millwood gone, Erasmo in while the Big Three are earning their chops in the minors.
Shawn Kelly back in the pen for the M's.
Figgins gone, with Carp taking his AB's.
Noesi to the minors to become better accustomed to the starting role, still have high hopes for his future with the M's or as a trade chip.
Ackley to lead off in place of Figgins.
Montero be announced as number one catcher even when Olivo comes back.
Smoak needs to start hitting.
The price for trading Brandon League just went up, up and up with Mariano tearing up his ACL. Would the Yanks trade with the M's again this year, I'm sure Cashman is a little wary and probably likes his fillings.
Carter Capps and Stephen Pryor move up to Triple A or beyond.
Try Seager at SS for awile.
See Felix win more than 33% of his starts.
League to the Yankees!
Brilliant!
Bravo Merks, Bravo!
BTW, I was bummed to see Rivera go down. Really bummed. He seems to be the classiest of guys.
But he goes out on top, at 42, with no sign of a declining ability.
Koufax's heater, the Big Unit's, too. The Ryan Express. Maddux's ability to pitch to the spot (a teeny tiny one on the edge of the black) with movement, and Rivera's cutter. Those are the biggest single pitch weapons (that didn't flame out in short order) I've seen in my days. Have I missed one?
And really, the cutter might have been the best of the best.
Godspeed into retirement, Mariano Rivera.
An admirer name moe
Just curious, Doc. But outside of League's propensity to telegraph his pitches and the two blown saves in very close games, what do you see as the problem areas?
We probably all agree that Erasmo should be starting, but you have long been a proponent of the Earl Weaver soft landing via the bullpen - it certainly has kept his pitch count reasonable. Iwakuma's usage has suggested that he quite simply doesn't belong on the team. Outside of that Luetge's been quite the find. Furbush out of the pen is running a 11.4 k/9 and an xFIP of 3.01. Delabar's been bitten by the HR, but he is also running an 11.4 k/9 and has an even lower xFIP of 2.89. Wilhelmsen's locked down the 8th and has a 9.9 k/9. League's perhaps the weakest link.
Meanwhile Shawn Kelley in AAA is now at 11.85 k/9 and a 1.44 xFIP!
I like this bullpen, I'll like it even more with Erasmo starting and Kelley up...
- Ben.
Who would you fleece the Yankees for if we were to lose our beloved surfer dude?
My dad must have taken me to see Clemens destroy the mid 80's to early 90's Mariners at least a dozen times. Before Randy Johnson, he was our "must see" pitcher.
Pedro's screwball changeup was a wonderful pitch, but his combination of command, deception, and unpredictability (the anti-League) is unmatched.
But Mo's cutter is probably the best single pitch I've ever seen. Everyone knew it was coming, but it just didn't matter.
It was his one and only real pitch, plus it was a pitch that quite a few pitchers were able to throw.