October 2010
Posted by jemanji on 10/29/10
19 Comments
=== Cool Breeze Dept. ===
Moe sez,
[re: Dustin Ackley being a Brett Favre, as opposed to being a Max Hall]
Which is why moving Smoak down this year after struggling was stupid. And why, in a perfect world, Ackley is the starting 2b, beginning today..not some artificial date in May.
Favre threw as many interceptions as touchdowns in his first two seasons. Nobody sat him down, Greatness in progress still become greatness. Willie Mays was ofer 21to begin his career, or some such thing.
If Smoak is the hitter everyone seems to think he is, then 100 PA's in Tacoma didn't do him much... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 10/28/10
3 Comments
Matty sez,
Baseball sabermetrics and football statistical analysis (we need a different name...SABR is the society for american baseball research...you cannot call the analysis of football sabermetrics) need to be approached COMPLETELY differently. Football statistics are in their absolute blastocyst stage...they aren't even infants yet...and the reason is...in football the situation matters a whale of a lot more than it does in baseball. In baseball, every play is one hitter, one pitcher, and three defensive units.
In football, every play involves AT LEAST 18 of the 22... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 10/28/10
2 Comments
=== Case In Point Dept. ===
We were fascinated to read, on the ginormously awesome FieldGulls.com site, a casual reference to the 'fact' that run defense matters less than any other facet of the game.
John Morgan quoted this article, IIRC, and this one, where it is shown that run-D efficiency correlates least with winning -- in the regular season.
Correlates? Yes. But it is critical to understand that this is not the same thing as saying "even if you have a weak run defense, the other team won't exploit it. You're okay not to have a great run defense."
What's that proverb again? ... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 10/28/10
Jeff Sullivan with, of course, a great article, this one on how strange it looked to watch Cliff Lee getting knocked out of the box.
Visualize for a moment --- > how you'd feel if the M's were in the Rangers' place, and if we had Cliff Lee but not Felix Hernandez.
You've overcome 50 years' worth. You won the ALCS. You won it against the 27-time champion New York Yankees and their insufferable fans -- in the media.
You won it without having to go to Cliff Lee a second time! Now, that was completely unpossible -- Yankees without using Lee again. You had a long, delerious 4-day... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 10/28/10
=== The Complexity of the Problem, Dept. ===
I like to compare pitching to shooting 3-pointers, or to shooting a handgun at 25-yard targets. All pitchers are hitting their targets. You're talking about where on the target they hit...
Kevin Durant doesn't toss up a 3-point shot and miss the rim, you know what I'm saying? He hits the rim, every time he shoots -- he shoots 1,500 times in a season and hits (at least) the rim on like 1,497 of them.
The difference between success, a swish, and failure, the rim, is hair-fine. Think about the preposterous challenge of throwing a huge ball... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 10/28/10
2 Comments
=== Ack ! ===
Kirby Arnold with a piece emphasizing Dustin's Champ-een mentality. :golfclap:
Dustin Ackley seems to be the Seattle Mariners' model prospect in more ways than hitting, running and fielding.
Ackley, who the Mariners picked last year with the second overall selection in the draft, has a tool the Mariners consider vital in preparing their players for what they want in the major leagues. He knows how to win.
Nearly everywhere Ackley has played — high school, college, minor leagues and fall ball — he has either played for a championship or won one.
“In college we had a really... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 10/27/10
6 Comments
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Q. Wow, the Seahawks are the 24th-likeliest team to beat a .500 opponent at a neutral site. Can that be correct?
A. It's not correct, no. And it doesn't really claim to be.
As the author notes, "the rankings are starting to make sense." You're talking about six games' worth of statistics.
Last week the Seahawks were #15 ... this week they drop to #24 based on a weird game played in weird weather. The Seahawks don't make much more sense at #24 than the Chargers do at #2.
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Q. Is this efficiency ranking predictive?
A. No doubt it predicts wins and losses better than, say, points... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 10/27/10
22 Comments
Spec Sez:
A semi-encouraging outing for Maikel Cleto, who has struggled. Cleto went 3.0 IP with 0 R, 1 H and 4 K. But 4 BB. No radar gun data from this outing, but in his first outing his FB was consistently 96+, peaking at 99, and curveball 81. So there's a lot of potential there if they can figure out what to do with it. The AFL is his first shot above A-ball, where he struggled at High Desert, so this is all work-in-progress stuff.
Work in progress indeed, and there's nothing wrong with that.
SSI is constantly bemused by the development arcs of prospects' hype sheets... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 10/27/10
5 Comments
=== ACK !, Dept. ===
Think it was Bill the Cat, Bloom County, whose vocabulary rotated around "Ack!," as Bill spit up another hairball at reading something that Berkeley Breathed found galling. With Breathed's politics, during this election cycle, Bill would have needed a separate litter box just for the hairballs...
Bill was accused of being a spoof of Garfield, an anti-marketing icon that was supposed to be impossible to sell. Ironically, Bill the Cat sold plenty...
The sight of ACK ! is creating a steady stream of tossed cookies on the back of AFL mounds. And though ACK ! was also... Read More
Posted by Spectator on 10/27/10
28 Comments
After an amazing 5-walks-against-5-different-pitchers game the other day (http://www.mlb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?sid=l119&t=g_log&gid=2010_10_25_...), The Talented Mr. Ackley follows up with 2 more walks the next day, giving him 9 walks in his last 3 games (vs. 2 K in the same stretch). For the fall season, 11 BB vs. 6 K, on base 18 times in 7 games (32 PA). He has 7 H, 3 of which are XBH (2 dbl, 1 HR).
Leads the league in OBP and 3rd in OPS: .333/.563/.571/1.134 . At the plate, he's almost just toying with the minor leaguer pitchers at this point.
He has 1 error in the field... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 10/20/10
5 Comments
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Russ' and my longtime partner in crime is --- > a pro-Wedge analyst. This makes me happy.
Quoth Mariner Analyst,
Before we gather our rocks to go stone Wedge,
SSI thinks that Wedge is probably a good overall manager. ... It's a little weird that (what I see as) his big Achilles' heel came up first on this site, but...
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I think that we need to give him and his pitching coach some benefit of the doubt. Don't forget -- Wedge is a former catcher. He knows how to work with pitchers -- he understands them.
My assumption would be that Wedge has an artist's feel for how to work... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 10/19/10
7 Comments
Creative argument, attempting a rebut vs. SSI's prosecution of the suspect:
I'm not a big fan of using BQS. For one, it seems like it has typically low rates, I can't seem to find the leader boards, but I can't imagine the lowest total being much lower than 3 or 4, the highest about 20? And the things that can lead to them, I mostly see; starting pitchers at 6 innings, 3 runs give up a homer, letting a young pitcher work through issues in a blowout (between the Indians being on the right side of a lot of those and Wedge being the kind of guy to let that happen I think that would... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 10/17/10
SSI's pre-game fearless predictions, Hindsight Is 20/20 Dept.:
........
(SSI) Myth: Pete Carroll has loaded up the Seahawks a "grass" front 7. This defense will hold up much better than did the 2009 defense.
SNOPES.com: The Seahawks bullied the Chicago Bears all afternoon.
The Road Warriors stuffed the Bears for a measly 61 yards rushing at home. In 39 passes, Jay Cutler completed only 17 while being knocked down 42.
As it happens, this beatdown occurred on, um, grass.
After game 5, the general consensus will be that the 2010 Seahawks defense is a real good one.
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Myth: The soft... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 10/17/10
Myth: Talented defenses can be undercut if their coordinators are getting outsmarted, but this probably won't happen in Seattle.
SNOPES.com: SSI was more impressed with the defensive play calling than anything else on the field, other than Russell Okung.
The TV guys pointed out several times that Da Bears' line was being left without TE pass protection, and the Seahawks gleefully lined up DB's at very sharp angles to get to Cutler before he could even plant his back foot.
For a coupla plays, I closed my eyes and pretended I was watching Buddy Ryan call plays :- )
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Myth: It's possible (... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 10/16/10
By popular request, here's yer football shtick ;- )
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Q. Does Dr. D know his monitor from a hole in the ground, when it comes to the NFL?
A. Without a doubt, Dr. D is more in need of football help than able to offer it himself. When you've got John Morgan blogging the local football team, you don't need any other fan sites, but if there can be 2, there can be 20 :- )
But, still, we humorously offer SSI as a Dennis Miller-style, readable voice on the game. We're capable of being right where the more vigorously-football-insane are not.
For instance, in Mora... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 10/16/10
Q. Scholastically?
A. There is no Bill James in football ... or maybe there are 1,000 of them, who knows which.
Anyway, John Madden provided a reasonable facsimile, and we agree with Mr. Madden about 98% of his football philosophy.
Football, sez Madden, starts with the left tackle and with the cover corners: a team can either protect for a given pass play or it shouldn't have the play called on the field.
If you can pass-protect, you're okay. If you can't, as the Seahawks noticed in St. Louis, turn the game off in the first quarter.
Earl Weaver taught Dr... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 10/16/10
Q. Ummmm ... the front 7 is "nasty"?
A. Nasty in the John Madden sense, not nasty in the "Hampton, Dent and Singletary in the box" sense.
Dr. D has been watching tough teams beat up on skill teams for about 900 years. Like Madden's free saftey, Jack Tatum used to put it ... as the season goes on, when the tough teams keep hitting the "skill" (wussy) teams, their will to win is going to be warped.
The Seahawks, under Mora, had a turf team. Pete Carroll has, over one winter, turned them into a grass team.
...............
We're not talking about the Seahawks' stats on grass or turf... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 10/16/10
Q. Is it possible that Pete Carroll could be a great NFL coach in this reincarnation?
A. The great coaches that I watched in the 1970's and 1980's ... they didn't fail in Coaching Job 1 and then come back and make the HOF in Coaching Job 2.
Don Shula was a great N-F-L coach before the merger, and then took over the Dolphins too. Tom Landry won with one team. Chuck Noll built the Steelers and then basked in the glory.
Dan Reeves, Chuck Knox, Bud Grant, Mike Holmgren, Joe Gibbs, Bill Cowher, even Marty Schottenheimer and Bill Walsh and Jimmy Johnson -- when did these guys ever fail (... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 10/16/10
5 Comments
Q. Does SSI see Carroll as a Shanahan-style brainiac or a Belichick-style virtuoso?
A. I wouldn't guess so, but I see him as kind of a 21st-century version of Chuck Knox.
(1) Knox was an extreme player's coach, a man that NFL players simply loved to play for. Players believed in Knox, trusted him, bought into him.
(2) Knox believed in "hard-nosed" football, not as a cliche, but as a reality. Chuck's teams did not get pushed around.
(3) Chuck certainly wasn't up to his later rivals, the Bill Walshes and Joe Gibbses, when it came to X's and O's. But despite the fact that he wasn't a... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 10/15/10
3 Comments
Dr. Naka says ...
Ichiro made clear that his 40+ SB in 2010 was because Figgins hit #2.
He said Figgins did not make a foul at bat when he took for 2nd base. In 2009 he had many fouls from Beltre.
Something cyber-friends should find out...
That Ichiro could not score in 2010 with his OBP and SB is another story.
..................
We saw many, many times in 2009 when Ichiro had a base stolen and the #2, often Beltre, swung at a *bad* pitch and fouled it off.
These were often -- usually -- swings that made no sense at all. 2-0 sliders way out of the strike zone and stuff like that. ... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 10/15/10
Articles on Wedge's ... talent evaluation ... leadership ... career arc ... Grimtooth smile ... etc., forthcoming. This is on one of six major facets of Wedge's 'game.'
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Q. How torqued is SSI that Bobby Valentine wanted to come here, but wasn't allowed to?
A. Baseball is for fun. Life is work. I refuse to participate in the Mariners' attempts to spoil my leisure time. Let's talk about what's enjoyable to talk about.
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Q. I see, from my Magic 8 Ball, that this bullpen series isn't going to make Dr. D any more popular on Royal Brougham. Do you hate Wedge?
A. I like... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 10/15/10
Q. Still, was Eric Wedge justly criticized for his bullpen use in Cleveland? If the criticism was fair, how would you know?
A. One way you would know, would be using a little stat called "Blown. Quality. Starts."
Baseball Prospectus has data for BQS over the years 2005-2009. (2010 isn't up yet, and apparently there is no data for 2004 and prior.)
In 2005, the first year for which BP has the data, Wedge was 5th among 30 managers in Blown Quality Starts -- the Indians had 12 of them.
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Q. Does the BQS stat capture skill bullpen management? What if the relievers are just bad?
A... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 10/15/10
Q. So does this explain his Pythagorean failures?
A. Pirata Morado gathered the data for us on Wedge's actual W/L records, vs. what they "should" have been given his runs gained and lost.
Here is the data that Pirata collected:
2003: Indians actual Winning% = 0.420, Pythag = .450, Performance = -0.0302004: Actual = 0.494, Pythag = 0.501, Performance = -0.0072005: Actual = .574, Pythag = .596, Performance = -0.0222006: Actual = 0.481, Pythag = 0.550, Performance = -0.0682007: Actual = 0.593, Pythag = 0.566, Performance = 0.0272008: Actual = 0.500, Pythag = 0.526, Performance = -0.0262009:... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 10/15/10
48 Comments
Q. Three-four games a year lost in the bullpen?
A. Oh, more than that.
Look, the Indians were down that much in W-L versus runs differential. But what about the fact that the pitching switches also ruined the run differential itself? :- )
What about the pitchers who had worse years, because they failed early, got ticked off, and out of a groove? My real concern here is for the pitchers who are having bad seasons because of this.
If a guy is blowing 3, 4, 5 extra games a year directly in the bullpen -- more than other managers do -- he's probably costing you 5 ERA+ points a year. Maybe... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 10/14/10
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Again roundtabling off of a better man than I:
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http://www.metsblog.com/2010/04/30/chat-with-bobby-v-about-stats-and-changes-in-mlb/
"Basically, I left in the height of the Steroid Era, and at that time, in 2004, there was very little mention about the team concepts. Everything was about the guy who could throw 100 mph and hit it 500 feet. That’s all people cared about.
That and On Base Percentage, which, of course, at that time was being discussed as if it was a new concept, and most people knew it was anything but new. Now I’m back, and I see people are... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 10/14/10
Rockin'...
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Matthew Cerrone: What do you make of the state of statistical analysis in baseball, and sabermetrics, and, as they say, ‘The search for objective knowledge about baseball.’
Bobby Valentine: I was weaned on sabermetrics as a manager, when I was 35 years old and with the Rangers. Our GM, Tom Grieve, who gets no credit or mention for it at all, hired a sabermetrician to work full time for the team, Craig Wright, who wrote The Diamond Appraised, and is in the same stratosphere among guys who crunch numbers like Bill James. So, I think they’re part and parcel to... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 10/14/10
9 Comments
Rollin'...
Bobby is big on team. He's big on little things. He's big on team composition, correctly defined and executed roles and he's very big on Bobby Valentine.
LOLOLOL! :- )
As far as correctly defined and executed roles, we all saw where that could take you in NPB-MLB showdowns.
...............
As far as the winning, that comes at a price. There are things you have to give up, if you want to win. In sports, winning almost always comes at the price of putting up with egomaniacs.
Not that Valentine is quite there, but .... don't go thinking that, if you want to win, you get to... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 10/14/10
=== July 9, 2010 ===
The Texas Rangers give up three years of Justin Smoak, at club-controls salaries, and three years of Justin Smoak, at arbitration salaries, for fifteen starts' worth of Cliff Lee.
The Rangers also give up two interesting pitching prospects.
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=== July 10, 2010 (9:00 am) ===
No sabermetrician, to the best of Dr. D's knowledge, attempts to argue the Rangers' side of this deal as dollar-balanced. This is because no conceivable $/WAR argument could be made.
In Seattle, we have studied the question of whether two years' worth (not two months' worth) of... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 10/14/10
=== July 10, 2010 (8:00 pm) ===
Cliff Lee is proudly rolled out in front of the home faithful. In his first start with the Rangers, he gives up six earned runs. The Rangers lose the game badly, 6-1. Against Baltimore.
Capt. Jack's trade looks completely inexplicable. For the other side, that is.
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=== July 17, 2010 ===
Cliff Lee starts, and loses, his second game for the Rangers, 3-2 at Fenway. He's down to a dozen starts remaining, in order to justify the 3,500 AB's the Mariners are going to get from Justin Smoak.
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=== July 27, 2010 ===
Having won his third start, 3-2... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 10/14/10
=== October 6, 2010 ===
Without Cliff Lee on their team, the old (1961-2009) Rangers would certainly have lost their short series against Tampa.
... the Rangers did have Cliff Lee on their team on October 6, 2010.
Lee took the mound against David Price (19-6, 2.72, with 188 strikeouts) and a Rays lineup that featured Evan Longoria, Carl Crawford, and co.
Lee spent the night "murdering souls," as one player later put it, and not only the Rays but the other Rangers were totally irrelevant.
10 strikeouts, 0 walks, the Rangers up 5-0 after five, but it was worse than that.
Was it Cliff... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 10/14/10
10 Comments
=== October 12, 2010 ===
One of the things I've never articulated well: [watching Cliff Lee] is what sports is about. Cliff Lee gives baseball societal value.
I'd rather watch ten starts of Cliff Lee or Randy Johnson -- win or lose -- than five years of baseball played by guys who don't care about who wins the game.
Who cares about watching one more humdrum 5-3 game between 90-loss franchises? I watch sports to see heroism.
Lee gives me heroism. He gives us virtuosity. He gives us poetry. He makes kiddie-fans out of us again. He locks me into baseball. What's it worth?
When the... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 10/14/10
3 Comments
Q. Would SSI project that, moving off of short, Nakajima-san could be expected to hit better than he does?
A. Probably. We mean "probably" in the literal sense of the word: 60%, 70% chance.
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Q. Is that because your body takes less of a pounding at SS?
A. Having played all of them a bit, I might wonder if 3B (probably), C (certainly) and CF (maybe) might not lead to more wear-and-tear than SS... I'm guessing that Ken Caminiti, Troy Glaus and co. could tell you a thing or two about the nicks and dings that ML third basemen take. :- )
It's just a guess, but I'm not sure that pro... Read More
Posted by Spectator on 10/14/10
16 Comments
I don't recall if they did in the past, but the Arizona Fall League Gameday has the full data on the pitches, just like from the big-league games. As such, I thought I would grab the data from Tom Wilhelmsen's appearance, since I thought it was pretty interesting.
Recall, his first truncated minor league career ended in A ball, to which he returned this year. So the AFL is his first chance, ever, to face upper-level prospects. Also of note, he averaged 7.0 IP per start for Clinton. True, he was outclassing his league, but he was ahead of them only in age -- not experience. Anyway,... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 10/13/10
Full Disclosure Dept: for awhile there, the T'ree Amigos at SportSpot consisted of Silentpadna, Dr. Detecto and Mariner Analyst...
So if we seem like we're piling on with handpicked analysts, it's only because we are...
Also, we're giddy to see MA posting at SSI. :- ) Cherrypicking a few ideas from his debut post:
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The greatest manager in the history of this franchise is Lou Piniella.
Which is a little like saying, the 2005 Seahawks were the greatest NFC finalists in the history of Seattle.
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Or like saying, Dave Niehaus was the greatest lead radio voice in the history of the... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 10/13/10
2 Comments
Before he arrived in Seattle in 1993, the Mariners had a culture of losing. He turned that around -- he created a culture of winning. No one questioned that this was Lou's team. It was his way or the highway -- and that's precisely the kind of power and respect that a manager should have. And I would argue that this exactly the kind of manager that this club needs again to get back on the winning track.
That's why I believe that at this juncture, bringing in an experienced, in charge, and fire in the pants kind of manager who wants to win and won't accept any excuses is... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 10/13/10
2 Comments
Dr. D counts at least six (6) important ideas in G-Money's post on Hiroyuki Nakajima. Strung like pearls on an 18K gold microchain, they dangle a persuasive case against the idea of [M's + Nakajima].
Actually, G-Money doesn't intend to nix Nakajima, and states the conditions under which he thinks Nakajima could be a good move. But the SLOPS side of G-Money's argument is so convincing, that we've got to mosh off it:
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In a vacuum I'm interested in replacing our ridiculously pitiful SS combo with even a league-average SS. Nakajima is a decent 2B/SS and we are very familiar with the trials... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 10/13/10
As far as the park-and-fit...
I'm leery of adding a RH hitter who relies on HRs in Japan that he won't get here, and that we can never EVER replace regardless of his performance.
There is no guarantee that Nick Franklin is gonna be the SS we really need him to be, but adding Nakajima makes Franklin instantly the greatest trade bait we are willing to dangle. His position would be blocked off for the next half-decade with us, at least.
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PROPS: You can't bring in any right-hand hitter without weighing Safeco moossssssst carefully. Much less a Japanese shortstop who mirrors Kazuo Matsui.... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 10/13/10
G-Money blasts away at Dr. D's rope-a-dope with heavy body shots to the Kazuo Matsui region:
If we're okay with that, and we don't think Nakajima is gonna faceplant power-wise like Kazuo Matsui did, then fine, I can be interested in using him to upgrade our SS position. Remember, though, that Kaz hit 23, 24, 36 and 33 HRs in his last 4 seasons in Japan, with very good batting averages those years (.305 to .332).
He never cleared 10 HRs in the bigs in any season, which made his career average of under .270 the best thing he had going for him. Nakajima has 21, 22 and 20 HRs... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 10/13/10
25 Comments
Rollin' ...
Maybe he can be Tad Iguchi. Getting the 28-29 years of Tad Iguchi at SS (or 2B) added to his 30-32 years doesn't sound bad at all. Tad's power died at 32, never to be seen again.
Still, that's 4 years away for Nakajima. We just don't play in the ChiSox hitter-friendly park. It's a risk, especially since he'll be here until he retires from MLB.
~G
PROPS: G's MID projection for Nakajima presumes the Iguchi outcome, which is reasonable... if Nakajima were Tadahito Iguchi, that would be what?
90-100 OPS
Solid glovework
Medium everything (AVG/OBP/SLG) 270/330/420
With... Read More
Posted by Spectator on 10/13/10
6 Comments
Opening Day in Arizona and Venezuela, and good news from the land of the Javelina:
Dustin Ackley, hitting 3rd and playing 2b, opened his fall season with a HR off Tiger RH prospect Brooks Brown, then followed with a walk. Three groundouts left him 1-for-4, but he was error-free in the field.
Josh Lueke pitched the 9th as follows:
Surprise Top of the 9th
Pitcher Change: Josh Lueke replaces Seth Garrison.
Engel Beltre lines out to shortstop Jose Iglesias.
Eric Farris grounds out, second baseman Dustin Ackley to first baseman Michael McDade.
Zack Cox strikes out swinging, catcher Ryan... Read More
Posted by SABR Matt on 10/08/10
12 Comments
There are a lot of misconceptions out there about what we mean when we say, for example, that the average NL team is currently eight wins weaker than the average AL team or that we think AAA has an EqA 12 points lower than the NL and 24 points lower than the AL.
What do we mean by League Quality?
Well this is actually a very complicated problem that involves - essentially - a four-moment curve-fitting exercise. Let's break it down a bit, starting with the simplest statistical facts.
Human Ability is Typically a Bell Curve
We know well that if you could somehow gather up everyone who has... Read More
Posted by Spectator on 10/07/10
2 Comments
John Gibbons, former Blue Jay manager, is the first name to officially surface as a finalist for the Seattle job. Gibbons went 305-305 in three-plus seasons. Managing Toronto to a .500 record would appear to qualify as one of the most uneventful jobs in sports, since he must be one of the most anonymous people to ever manage an MLB team for over 600 games. Two things, though: he has a track record that can be scrutinized, and he has managed under Z before, in the Mets farm system.
One thing that people forget is that Wak had never worked under Z. I think Z had him on a list of "people I... Read More
Posted by Grant on 10/06/10
13 Comments
Voting for posts and comments now available. Your input needed!
Hello, my name is Grant and I am an administrator @ klat.com. As you may have noticed, there is a new thumbs up/down widget on both posts and comments (for the time being you will need to be logged in to view comment votes). We hope to use the votes to do a few things in the near-future:
Hide or minimize poorly ranked comments
Highlight hot comments
Tie into a points system or "karma" for users
The voting system is the first of several new communiity features that I hope to be adding to the site soon. I invite you to use the... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 10/02/10
15 Comments
=== Dr D axed, Dept. ===
SABRMatt opined that the NL was "the game's elite minor league" and we tossed in a 9-foot-arc'er:
Real quick Matty, with AL being 100 on the index, where would you personally ballpark the NL, NPB, and AAA at the moment?
To which Matt replied,
Per the last decade of interleague play results, the NL is Pythagenmatting it at a .387 clip. A .387!! clip. For a whole league in ten years worth of interleague games. That's a LOT of games to be THAT bad.
If you called up the five best PCL teams and had 'em run shotgun with the AL for 162 games each...... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 10/02/10
40 Comments
=== On the NL ===
We're all used to thinking of NL ballplayers as stars, but ...
... man!, a .387 winning percentage (63 wins, 99 losses) against the AL?! over a 10-year period?! Baseball Prospectus sets .351 (57 wins, 105 losses) as the definition of replacement level.
Objectively speaking, the NL has been performing, in interleague play, at not much above RL.
...............
Not sure we get to throw out the NL Central, and say, well, the best 8 NL teams are equal to the average AL teams. You could take the 8 best AL teams also, and match them against the entire NL...
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=== On the... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 10/01/10
10 Comments
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TABLE OF CONTENTS: We're working our way through the list from Z's earliest trades, to his most recent trades.
If you want gushing, or if you just want to start in chrono order, scroll back and start at the bottom of the front page with the Gutierrez and then Aardsma reviews. :- )
With this post, we've so far time-traveled up to mid-2009.
... Jeff
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=== Yuniesky Betancourt for Daniel Cortes, plus ===
Leading this one off with Adam P. Boyd's analysis:
Trade 5: July 10, 2009
Seattle Mariners Receive: RP Derrick Saito and P Daniel Cortes
Kansas City Royals Receive: SS Yuniesky... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 10/01/10
=== Mike Morse for Ryan Langerhans ===
This trade had a cute little backstory: the biggest blog in Seattle had written up a specific request that the Mariners trade for Langerhans -- and written it up mere days before Zduriencik actually made the deal for Langerhans.
SB Nation headlined a story, asking whether the M's had in fact responded to the blog-o-sphere's request. :- )
Actually, the truth later came out that Zduriencik had been making minor offers on Langerhans for some time, and that the Nationals finally caved in a few days after the local 'net article.
It wouldn't at... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 10/01/10
17 Comments
Our reaction article on Langerhans was that he was a Swiss Army Knife journeyman, a player that Earl Weaver (for example) avoided like the plague.
Good managers find specialists for their benches, and then they outsmart opposing managers and create +1.5 players out of +0.5 players.
There was nothing wrong with Langerhans, except that he was Jeremy Reed, a dime-a-dozen journeyman who might (theoretically) block Stars & Scrubs developmental players.
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After about a month, SABRMatt noticed that Langerhans had a slider-speed bat. This is precisely the kind of thing... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 10/01/10
6 Comments
=== Aaron Heilman for Ronny Cedeno and Garret Olson ===
Z's third trade, all coming within about 30 days, was to turn Aaron Heilman around for Ronny Cedeno and Garret Olson.
Quoth our man Adam Boyd:
Seattle Mariners Receive: SS Ronny Cedeno (-.7 WAR) and P Garrett Olson (-.9 WAR)
Chicago Cubs Receive: RP Aaron Heilman (+.2 WAR)
Zdurencik flipped Heilman, a league-average relief pitcher, for two players who might have had somepotential left in them -- Cedeno, a former Chicago Cubs prospect with a .930 OPS at Triple-A Iowa, and Olson, a former first-round pick of the Baltimore Orioles.... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 10/01/10
2 Comments
Photo: did you ever read Peanuts, the picture that Charles Schultz would draw of Charlie Brown running to the ballfield after school?
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=== Jan 2009 - A hitting donut - for - David Aardsma ===
Okay, Fabian Williamson for David Aardsma.
With trade #2, Zduriencik out-maneuvered SSI for the second time running. ;- ) Along with James, I've always insisted that a real expert within baseball should obviously see things that I, personally, do not from my bleacher seat.
It's actually kind of rare that I've felt that this was clearly the case. :- ) But it's the case with Zduriencik.
If this... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 10/01/10
I/O: Adam P. Boyd, at Prospect Insider, does a great job collating 16 of Jack Zduriencik's trades. Here is Part I and here is Part II. :golfclap: Thanks Adam!
CRUNCH: An overall evaluation of Zduriencik's performance would have billions of moving parts -- and even an overall evaluation of his trades would require a weighting factor -- VORP in, VORP out, to say nothing of the atmosphere, Stars & Scrubs ramifications, etc etc.
Adam does have the VORP for each player since the trade occurs, which helps.
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There's nothing more fun than sitting in the upper deck,... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 10/01/10
1 Comments
And! Franklin Gutierrez was hardly an obvious move. At the time of the trade, Dr. Detecto wasn't even 100% clear that Gutierrez was a fulltime player, from a hitting standpoint. Jack thought he was, and Jack was right.
Other GM's would not have picked Gutierrez out of a police lineup -- not so as to give away a super-closer for him. Jack did.
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And! Putz&Co-for-Gutierrez would have been a HOF move on every level, if the M's had gotten nothing but Gutierrez.
They also got Jason Vargas, a pitcher I would have (and did) tell you was a AAAA pitcher.
Jason Vargas gave the... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 10/01/10
17 Comments
Q. Did the mainframe crunch Justin Smoak's (high) line-drive % as a threat to his HR production?
A. No, which was why we studiously avoided this interesting discussion.
Young "Naturals" will choose to dial up their swings and loft the ball, as they "get their arms around the game" so to speak.
This is axiomatic to us Shandlerites. We watch for young superstars with good heads on their shoulders, like, for instance, Justin Smoak. These cagey hitters do what they're capable of doing -- including stroking the ball up the middle when they're overmatched.
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Q. Have a precedent?
A. I can'... Read More
Posted by Spectator on 10/01/10
7 Comments
Our gracious host no doubt feels somewhat dumped upon after expressing his preference for George Springer, OF, UConn, as the #2 pick in the 2011 draft, assuming Anthony Rendon is taken by the Pirates in the #1 spot. (He did not express a preference for Springer over Rendon, despite some of the comments to that effect.) (And, I guess, the Ms have not technically clinched the #2, but they are 2.5 GB Baltimore with 3 to play.)
The result was a good debate: is there a point where there are too many strikeouts in and of itself, or do you always have to compare K to BB? I can't speak for Taro,... Read More