1
...in your comments about his low 120+ and 100+ pitch game counts. That surprised me...because a lot of Indians fans blame Wedge specifically for destroying Fausto Carmona through overwork.
POTD Eric Wedge - Bullpen Switches (4)
Q. Three-four games a year lost in the bullpen?
A. Oh, more than that.
Look, the Indians were down that much in W-L versus runs differential. But what about the fact that the pitching switches also ruined the run differential itself? :- )
What about the pitchers who had worse years, because they failed early, got ticked off, and out of a groove? My real concern here is for the pitchers who are having bad seasons because of this.
If a guy is blowing 3, 4, 5 extra games a year directly in the bullpen -- more than other managers do -- he's probably costing you 5 ERA+ points a year. Maybe he's costing you 10.
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Q. Maybe it will get better by magic?
A. Eric Wedge's BQS skill is demonstrated.
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Q. Does that imply that the other things that Wedge did, were probably okay?
A. Yeah. Eliminate his lousy bullpen swaps and you eliminate Wedge's Pythag problem.
Look, I didn't sit down to write a jeremiad about Eric Wedge. Looking at the things other than bullpen switches, I see a whale of a lot I like.
And there's the obvious fact that Jack Zduriencik chose him, which is the biggest positive in Wedge's favor.
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Q. Can the Mariners address this problem?
A. How are you going to teach a catcher --- > whether Josh Leuke or Brandon League have the mojo that night? You're not. Eric Wedge has fouled up pitching switches for seven years and he's not going to start getting them right now.
The Mariners better (1) look at Wedge's BQS and (2) advise Eric Wedge that the pitching coach will be making the bullpen changes.
SSI is completely serious about this. If the Mariners are interested in wins, and in turning this thing around, then they will smile and tell Wedge that he just doesn't know how to change a pitcher.
And they'll get somebody who can do it for him. They've got to.
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Q. So it's actually a reason for optimism?
A. Hey, most people see Eric Wedge as a humdrum, retread.
Rather than seeing Wedge as a mediocrity, I see him as a talented manager with many interesting strengths .... hamstrung by one huge Achilles' heel, that on balance makes him appear middle-of-the-pack.
So fix the one big problem, and...
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Q. You can't be naive enough to believe that an ML team would give the pitching changes to the pitching coach.
A. A lot of teams seem to do that now, at least sometimes, though they keep a social veneer that represents the manager as doing it.
Failing that .... if the M's aren't going to give the bullpen changes to somebody who can do it right ... we M's fans better hope that the Mariners put a formula, a set of roles, in place that covers Wedge's Achilles Heel as best they can.
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Q. Yeah, maybe Jack Zduriencik can pick better 9-10-11-12 staff guys, out of AAA, than Mark Shapiro could?
A. Starting with Sean White and all the other 1:1 CTL guys...
No, we're kidding -- SSI has liked a lot of the pitching choices, such as with Vargas, Fister, and Aardsma.
The Indians gave Wedge a bunch of scrubs out of AAA to fill out the pen, and so will the Mariners. Maybe ours will include Leuke and Cortes next year.
Yeah, that's the ticket. The key to Eric Wedge's renaissance will be... Josh Leuke.
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Like Rocky Balboa circling to his right to protect a cut left eye, the Mariners could put RP's in super-set roles, replace the SP's by formula (Felix after 7, Vargas after 27 hitters, etc) and hope for the best.
Not that the 2011 Mariners have the personnel of the 2001 Mariners, to do that.
If the M's do put the pitching changes in the hands of a real bright pitching coach -- if they make Wedge's pitching changes for him, or by formula -- it could easily be that Eric Wedge is an excellent manager otherwise.
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B'lee Dat,
Dr D
Comments
2
There is some precedence within the M's organization for pushing the manager to cede a lot of control of the pitching staff - they did it to Pinella with Price. Pinella, for all his great qualities, was absolutely murder on a pitching staff. Of course, they also got Sasaki-Nelson-Rhodes and that certainly didn't hurt.
It'll be interesting to see how Wedge fills his staff. He probably needs a feel-good bench coach to balance his task master nature. He probably needs coaches at 1B and 3B that can coach fundamentals, given the youth movement in the IF. Here's hoping he'll bring in very strong pitching & bullpen coaches.
3
Though am sure you know where the BP stats on managers are :- )
Maybe Wedge did misuse Carmona - he certainly got accused of it - but am not disposed to take the fans' word on that particular issue ;- ) ...
We know that Wedge also got accused of messing up young talent and my first take gave me almost the diametrically-opposite impression. Just for instance, Wedge didn't believe in Ryan Garko the way the Indians' fans did, and Wedge turned out to be right. Several other examples occurred.
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Will take a look at Carmona specifically, amigo. Looking forward to your thoughts on it.
4
If Jack picks the pitching coach -- which definitely steps on Wedge's toes -- and is clear about the bullpen-swaps issue -- they could turn out OK there.
M's fans better hope. As you say, Piniella for a while had a rep for fouling up pitchers, though later that rep changed.
5
Losing 4games+ per year due to pitching changes is a fatal flaw in my mind. You could PAY Wedge $18mil a year TO NOT manage your team and you'd be breaking even.
A manager has two main jobs:
1) Get players to play better under him.
2) Squeeze more Ws out of that production via technical managing.
Wedge is already failing massively at #2 (and part of #1 with the staff). The Ms HAVE to get a pitching coach to manage the staff or this is a huge mistake.
6
My guess is that they'll keep Willis on as pitching coach, for continuity, and also because he was Wedge's PC in Cleveland for a bit. Perfect way to fix the bullpen switching issue, and not tick off the new hire.
7
Just wondering? What do you think the chances are that Valentine, certainly a more proven commodity than Wedge, just simply disagreed with Z's moves? I just get the sense that Z has said "for better or worse, this is my lineup and I'm sticking with it." or words to that effect....Did V challenge that? Potentially the M's are in a better place (becasue of young talent and Felix's development) than they were in 2008. Potentially. but I must say i have no trust in Z's ability to develop that potential. Sheesh i hope I'm wrong.
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And you know that they were taking a very sharp pencil to the $1M (?) difference between Valentine's and Wedge's salaries.
Wedge + Ichiro = Valentine? And you pass on Bobby V because of $500k in salary differential?
9
That "being comfortable" with an employee is part of the luxury that a GM enjoys.
Of course, a 101-loss season brings its own threat to comfort levels...
I don't doubt that Zduriencik chose Wedge because he believes that Wedge has the best chance to win. But hope that the "comfort level" factor didn't influence it unduly.
10
Wedge basically cancels out Ichiro if the trends continue.
So you'd basically be paying the $20mil or whatever it is for Ichiro+Wedge for replacment level production.. I'd rather not even have a manager if hes going to have such a huge negative impact on the staff.
Ugh.. Whatever other qualities Wedge has, they aren't going to be worth it unless he has zero authority over pitching changes (give the authority to the pitching coach).
11
The M's suddenly realize the problems, call Wedge's agent and say, "Let's hold off a bit," and call Bobby V back...
:- )
I'm not against Wedge. But clearly they have to fix this particular aspect of Wedge's game.
12
I'm not a big fan of using BQS. For one, it seems like it has typically low rates, I can't seem to find the leader boards, but I can't imagine the lowest total being much lower than 3 or 4, the highest about 20? And the things that can lead to them, I mostly see; starting pitchers at 6 innings, 3 runs give up a homer, letting a young pitcher work through issues in a blowout (between the Indians being on the right side of a lot of those and Wedge being the kind of guy to let that happen I think that would come up a lot), or a ill timed bad luck (a misplayed flyball leads to a run instead of out #3). Of course the fact that the Indians were among the league leaders most years is worrisome (except once again I can see him letting pitchers like Cliff Lee and CC Sabathia work through tough spots when the team is up by 5 more often than other managers).
Unfortunately, I decided to try my own tests to figure out his skill with the bullpen. I went to the Indians records in 1 run games and extra inning games in the theory that those are most often considered contests of the bullpens; in 1-run games, keeping it close or the other team down, in extra inning games: forward planning. Unfortunately, Wedge flunked that, the Indians winning percentage in extra inning games during his tenure was .450, and in 1-run games it was .468. The Indians finished with a better winning percentage in 1-run games than in the rest of the season only twice in 7 seasons ('04 & '08) and had a better record for extra inning games only once ('06). Plus, egads he let Bob Wickman and Joe Borowski close games when Rafael Betancourt was sitting in the bul
I wanted to go deeper, desperate to find thelpen ray of light in Eric Wedge's bullpen management, so I looke directly at the team reliever stats year to year, and something jumps out at me. Since 2006 Eric Wedge's teams typically finished in the bottom 5 teams in number of games pitched by relievers on 0 days rest, in the top 5 on number of pitches thrown by a reliever per appearance, and generally in the bottom 10 in reliever games that lasted less than 3 outs.
So, Eric Wedge cares about his players; he doesn't put them in on short rest, he lets them work through trouble, and he doesn't believe in pitching to platoons. Sound familiar? Seattle was last in games pitched on 0 days rest and less than 3 out appearances this year and first in reliever pitches per outing. Last year they were last in less than 3 out appearances, 6th to last in 0 days rest appearances, and 1st in reliever pitches per outing.
Jack Zduriencik LIKES Eric Wedge's bullpen management.
At least some aspect of it.
13
From 2006-2009, the Cleveland Indians had a platoon advantage in a pitching matchup around 41% of the time, consistently being in the bottom 5 of teams in attaining it. In 2009 and 2010, the 4th from last and 3rd from last. Eric Wedge definately does not believe in agressive platooning
14
BP.com > statistics > Managers - Pitching.
The diffusion for BQS is easily equal to or higher to that of most stats. The average is 6-7; the leaders have twice that, the bottom end has half that.
Compare NFL wins. In a 14-game season, if average was 7 wins, the best team had 13 wins and the worst team had 3, would you say that the wins column had too little distribution to separate the teams?
How about if one team won 2, 3, 4, 3, 3, 2, 4 games over the course of seven seasons?
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Wedge has averaged roughly 2x his normal allotment of blown QS over the length of his career. It's not feasible to argue that there is no standard deviation available for BQS.
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Ya Mal, you found a corroborating stat - a lousy record in close games - and that's 'cause there is a reality (Wedge's lousy bullpen swaps) that is behind the stats reflecting the reality.
15
Wedge is somewhat towards the Earl Weaver philosophy of offense, sit back and let the guys hit.
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He left the pitchers in against opposite handed hitters, I'm saying don't expect to have a LOOGY again next season. Offensively, he's about middle of the road in seeking the platoon advantage, the Indians finishing around league average with having platoon advantage offensively about 52-55% of the time most years.
17
Was looking at some hit-and-run type stuff when I read your comment. Thx.
18
Sorry, but you have to be brain-damaged to not see the value of platoon advantages in pitching match-ups UNLESS the guys in your bullpen are all lights-out. Zduriencik's only chance to get a good game out of this pokey is to fill his bullpen with stud-muffins.
19
For running platoons, certainly there's value in it, it's not that Wedge didn't ever take platoon advantage (I think he was last 1 year and otherwise 4-6th from last), his pitchers did have it over 40% of the time. The point was, he's not a manager, that when the hitters coming up are right-left-right handed, that you're going to see 3 relievers in the inning so that nobody has platoon advantage. Wedge's lefthanded bullpen guys for most of his tenure were Rafael Perez, who has a 9 point gap in OPS platoon splits. He didn't use platooning as much as most managers when he did have guys that split well, though he only had guys the split well as LOOGYs a couple times in his tenure.
Also, I don't like the comparison of BQS to Football wins. In football, the max number of wins is 16, in BQS, the max number would be, what, 90? Also, names like Cox, Leyland, and Francona are also typically atop the leaderboard, as well as lesser names. There's also the fact that a BQS doesn't necessarily mean loss, and if you're ahead by 4+, why not let the typically young staff work through it. Baseball-Reference.com has team pitching splits, and I found this:
OPS+ Against from innings 7-9 by Year
03 - 94
04 - 112
05 - 73
06 - 93
07 - 93
08 - 112
09 - 104
That kind of goes against the idea that Wedge can't manage a bullpen, yes there are 2 bad years, but the rest are average or much better. I'm not necessarily a believer in Wedge's bullpen management, but I'm coming around.
20
27 games down in 7 years is about as statistically probable as Ichiro hitting .265.
Read: very IMPROBABLE.
How is he losing so many games against Pythag, mal? His bullpen OPS+ against is not particularly GOOD either. The MLB average bullpen OPS+ is *NOT*! 100...it's about 91. Relievers about 15 OPS+ points better than starters on average (because of things like...oh...I don't know...the platoon advantage?). Wedge's bullpen OPS+...totaled over 7 years is 98...which is notably worse than the league average for it being over so many innings.
21
those OPS+ numbers were for innings 7-9, the final innings for the starting pitcher as well as the bullpen. I was referring there more to Wedge's ability to choose a transition point from starter to bullpen. Checking the League splits for the last several years, the OPS+ against numbers are consistently around 100. Also, when I check the league reliever statistics, the OPS+ against is generally 98 (compared to league average), compared to OPS+ against starting pitchers, it's generally 94.
Bobby Cox's Braves are 23 games under their Pythag over the last 7 years, and 24 under over the last 6 years (2004 was the last time the Braves beat their Pythag). Before that, they had consistently been at or above Pythag. Is Bobby Cox a bad manager? Did he suddenly become a bad manager in 2005? Pythag win record has gaping holes and we all know it.
22
It would only be a statistical improbability if every year they was significantly below their Pythag, the Indians were above their pythag in 2007, and below it by only 1 in 2004 and 3 in 2005. From 2003 to 2007, the Indians Inherited runner scoring percentage was around 30%, compared to a league average around 32% (08 and 09 it was about 38%).
I found a couple other stats in BR's league stats for starters, Wlst and Lsv which stand for Wins Lost and Losses Saved (For when a pitcher left with the lead/deficit and the game was lost/won by the bullpen). The Indians had below league average Wlst numbers (the range is generally 5-20) in 05, 07, and 09, and high Wlst numbers in the other years of Wedge's tenure. The Indians Lsv numbers (ranging 10-30) were more varied, 3 years low, 2 years at league average, and 2 years high.
23
...the 91 bullpen split was DNRA+...not ERA+...my apologies.
The DIPS bullpen record improves more than the ERA does (which is interesting, although I think inconsequential given the tendency for reliever ERA to be bizarrely unhelpful due to the stupid riles in place regarding who gets charged with runs when multiple pitchers contribute to their scoring.
I am looking around at the various bullpen numbers...and I do find it hard to believe the BQS is explained by the bullpen. :\
24
I wonder how much of this poor bullpen pitching / substitutions can be blamed on the catcher?
If none, then hopefully Wedge can give us an advantage in bringing Victor to Seattle.
If catching has a lot to do with it, then maybe the Rob Johnson and Adam Moore can turn this tide for Wedge.
25
...then I'd want it to be as a DH and as Adam Moore's back-up.
26
Trying to trade for Chris Iannetta or Russell Martin, as suggested on ProBallNW. I feel like Victor Martinez would have Safeco reduce his OPS+ from the 120s to 110s, and that's not much use at DH. Speaking of free agent former Indians, could Jake Westbrook step in as a #3 or is he just an expensive version of Doug Fister? I also think Grady Sizemore is emminantly gettable, with his contract, the recent knee surgery, and the fact that the Indians have all but announced they're rebuilding again; it could take as little as Michael Saunders & Alex Liddi.
27
Not in a baseball sense...but in a woman's issues sense.
Everyone within 1000 miles of Cleveland knows that Sizemore isa womanizing bastard with no morals. He lands here and misbehaves with a lady and Zduriencik will get fired.
28
I would happen to be 1800 miles or so from Cleveland though. A google search for "Grady Sizemore abuse/women/mysogenist" only leads to a few sexting pics he sent his girlfriend several years ago...
29
However, Indians fans who were at the park when I attended a game at the 2008 annual SABR convention informed me (very aggressively...LOL) that Sizemore was a piece of crap...that he signed autographs only for the pretty girls who approached him after hours, that he was routinely seen in bars with said pretty girls boozing them up after signing those autographs, and that he hasn't had a stable girlfriend at any point in his life because he cheats on them with autograph chicks. Seriously.
I think he fails the Mariners' personality test.
30
A list of the M's "good boys" who partied, when on the road away from their wives, would curl your toes... We're talking the very squeaky-cleanest reps...
The M's are definitely huge into good actors, but does any sports team extend that to players who run around on their wives?
Your remark about Wedge obviously leering and drooling at a signing, if true, that's something they'd ding him for, though...
And it may be true that they hold their coaching staff to different standards, dunno...
31
I don't know whether Wedge is a womanizer. :) I was talking about Sizemore.
32
Great ! That makes Grady immediately my favourite player. Together with Josh they could make Seattle more interesting.
33
You've probably described well over 50% of the MLB population.
Over 30% of regular people cheat on their wives (much less girlfriends). The percentage for MLBers is going to be way higher.
34
The nearest equivalent I can find is an estimate from the American Psychiatric Association...an estimate that at some point in marriages lasting over 4 years, roughly 12% of married men and 7% of married women will have sex with another person besides their spouse. That ain't no 30%.
35
...I am not saying that if I were in charge of the Mariners, I'd avoid cheating womanizing bastards...that's impractical. I'm saying the MARINERS might, though.
36
my bad.
37
But the APA has a political agenda to marginalize Ozzie-and-Harriet values. Since Masters and Johnson, the propaganda has been "everybody's having crazy sex except you." :- )
I don't think 1/3 of 40-year-old Suzy Mainstreets have the OPPORTUNITY to have affairs. :- )
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But Taro's broad point is that PRO ATHLETES are having crazy sex en masse, and that part we find a leeeeeeetle more credible...
38
I chalk Grady up for these remarks... as pro athletes go, I can live with Grady and his ladies...
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By the way, this is neither here nor there, but the Grady's Ladies movement met a rather bizarre Curse of Cleveland...
39
Al Martin is okay until his private life gets leaked...
Rumor was that the M's avoided Godzilla for his taste in literature...
40
Well, you're sifting out marraiges under 4 years and likely there are a lot more cases that weren't reported even in the data.
It was on a Japanese documentary, so I can't verify the source.
The general reaction "in Japan", was that the 30+% was lower than they thought. If I remember correctly, I think the percentage was a little higher in Japan.
41
If it became "visible" maybe.
You wouldn't be able run a baseball team if you rejected all the guys that have had one-nighters with groupies.
42
The stat I'm referring too though was about husbands that "at one point in their lives cheated on their wives". Those 40 years olds used to be in their 20s and 30s. I can't verify the stat though.
43
I've got zero problems with Grady's lady issues for what its worth. Hes not even married and who knows how serious his relationships are. Thats his choice.
44
That's one repressed, messed up culture...have your seen their pornography? YIKES!! Heck, their mainstream media includes Manga that depict such depravity that it could make a liberated U.S. citizen weep.
Here in the U.S., there's no way in Hades that the percentage is that high. As for the weeding out of short marriages...yes...I do suspect the cheating ratio is higher for short marriages, but then...these days people get married at the drop of the hat.
45
The stat was US-based (the 30+%), and there was one for Japan too (although I think a different category and I can't recall right now). I'm sure the percentage is a lot higher in shorter marraiges, but it was based on males that have at one point cheated in their lives.
I think Japanese culture is just a lot more open when it comes to expressing the various aspects of human nature. I think theres a tendency in the US for people to take things too seriously. The Japanese have their flaws (racism in general IMO), but for the most part the crimerate is extremely low.
46
Does anybody think it would be practical to pick up Grady? Could he be gotten cheaply enough, will he bounce back? Would he have issues having traded positions with his caddy from Cleveland? Would it be a worthless expenditure of capital for 2011?
47
... but I'll respond like I only read it once, "Depends on how cute you are."
48
Sizemore's '12 option year becomes a player option if hes traded, so really it'd be a move for '11 only.
I like the idea of buying low and taking a chance on Sizemore, but it would really have to be a trade-and-extend type of scenario to make sense for the Ms. Thats probably not very likely, so I don't really see it happening..