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The Tenth: Ji-Man Choi?

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=== Up To Speed, Dept. ===

Lonnie of MC gives the following Executive Summary:

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Some of you may have heard of Ji-Man Choi, and some of you may not have. No matter, I planned on rehashing his story for you all anyway...

Back in the summer of 2009 a group of Seattle scouts attended a pitching demonstration in South Korea by a High School pitcher with the name of Seon Gi Kim. Catching him that day was converted third baseman Ji-Man Choi. The Mariner scouts liked what they saw from young Seon Gi Kim and signed him to his first professional contract. The kid behind the plate also impressed the scouts and he too was signed with little or no fanfare.

Both young men started their professional careers in the Arizona Summer League at Peoria. Seon Gi Kim ran a high ERA, but impressed a lot of folks with his periphials.

Meanwhile, Ji-Man Choi was doing something that no one expected; he was killing the ball. While in Arizona as an 18 year old Choi ran a .378/.459/.541/1.000 slashline. He showed a phenominal batting eye with his 27/39 BB/K rate.

Since he was so new to catching the M's brass decided to move him into the position slowly, so he spent that first year in Arizona playing 1b for 29 games, and catcher for 10. The combination of his defense and his offense got more than a few of us excited about the possibility of actually having a catcher who is a complete package.

Late in the 2010 season Choi was given a surprise promotion all the way up to A+ High Desert where he played 1B and DH. In 50 plate appearances he went from an interesting and exciting player to a bona fida prospect. While with High Desert Choi put together a slashline of .302/.380/.442/.882. Not many 18 year old kids can make the transition from the Arizona Rookie leagues to the uber competative A+ Cal League with such aplomb.

Based upon his performance in 2010 a lot of us were really excited to see where Choi would end up in 2011 and if he would be a full-time catcher or not. Gordon (G_Moneyball) and I saw Choi in ST in March of 2011 and were gidddy to see him walking around in catcher's gear. He looked about as good as any kid could look in the early stages of ST and when we both left we felt that for sure that Choi would break camp with either Clinton or Everett, but it didn't work out that way...

Sometime during the later stages of ST in 2011 Choi started to experience pain in his back. I don't have all of the particulars, but such was the pain that Choi did not play a single game in 2011, and in December a broken bone in his back was discovered (again, no details). Choi had two screws and a metal rod placed in his back and was shelved for several months beginning in 2012. Finally, sometime in March/April he had the screws and rod removed and was allowed to start practicing and begain playing baseball in earnest when he was assigned to Clinton. 

Choi made his 2012 debut playing DH on May 19 and went 2/4 with a double and a ribbie and hasn't slowed down much from there. So far in 2012 Choi has played 30 games at 1B, and 27 as the DH. Through the 57 games that he has played in, Choi has put together a slashline of .306/.421/.497/.927 in a predominantly pitcher friendly league. Choi has a batting eye of .653 (.500 is the baseline for a good prospect. Anything north of their is gravy.) with 32 walks and 49 K's. He has a walk rate of 12.3%, which is bloody awesome, and a strikeout rate of 18.85% which is just as awesome.

The issue at the moment with Choi is will hit for enough power to be a legitimate 1st baseman. So far this year he has hit 12 doubles, 1 triple, and 8 homeruns. His isolated power(slugging - average) is .191. If he is able to keep this sort of production up then, yes, he can be viewed as a legitimate 1B.

It's too bad that Choi will most likely never play catcher again. As a catcher, his potential was off the charts.

Lonnie

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That'll do for us too.

POTD Hisashi Iwakuma - WBC Glory

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Q.  Baseball Prospectus, in this article, interprets Iwakuma as being an 89-mph guy, with 4 lame pitches, but a forkball that comes up to average ML quality.  True?

A.  WAY off the mark.

In the F/X Interpretation Apple Bowl, I'll take SSI over BP, thanks.  In part because SSI has a video footage coordinator on defense.  

But if it's ML scouting you want, here is Orel Hershiser judging Iwakuma's pitches.  Orel flatly states that Iwakuma "could play in the majors in a heartbeat" and is enthused about all of Iwakuma's tools:

Hisashi Iwakuma is a complete pitcher. He doesn't have Darvish's 96 mph fastball, he's more around 91-92, but he has five exceptional pitches. He's got the short breaking ball with the slider,* a tight, locating curveball, a nice, solid changeup, a lively fastball and a great forkball. He was one of the most impressive pitchers in the tournament ...  he could play in the majors in a heartbeat. 

*As opposed to Darvish's, which tends to be thrown loopy and for a called ball. - jjc.

I agree with Orel, and would even if Iwakuma were about to become an Oakland Athletic, except that I see Iwakuma as a 4-pitch guy, not a 5-pitch guy.  Will explain exactly why Orel is right, and BP is wrong, in a second.

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For those who want another 'net rat's take based strictly on the F/X alphanumerics (and no video), here is one from Athletics' Nation last year.

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Q.  In a nutshell, what is Iwakuma's repertoire?

A.  Average-solid 89-92 fastball, straight, but with life and with plus-plus command -- think Jered Weaver's approach, maybe not quite.  

Excellent (plus) shuuto with late, hard bite (think Steve Delabar's "High School Gyroball").  

80 mph slider thrown in the strike zone.  And a Sasaki-class forkball.

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Q.  C'mon.  He'd be a big star if he had four pitches like that.

A.  Which he is.  

George Springer vs. The Pitchers

Our gracious host no doubt feels somewhat dumped upon after expressing his preference for George Springer, OF, UConn, as the #2 pick in the 2011 draft, assuming Anthony Rendon is taken by the Pirates in the #1 spot.  (He did not express a preference for Springer over Rendon, despite some of the comments to that effect.) (And, I guess, the Ms have not technically clinched the #2, but they are 2.5 GB Baltimore with 3 to play.)

The result was a good debate: is there a point where there are too many strikeouts in and of itself, or do you always have to compare K to BB?  I can't speak for Taro, but it seemed that he was making the argument that Springer's 70 K rendered him unacceptable just on that basis.  Doc countered that 70 K was just fine in light of the 60 BB (we're talking about 64 G and 243 ABs here).

I think they both have valid points.  What I'm trying to get at is this: not whether George Springer is a fine player or a top-10 draft pick, BUT is George Springer enough of a sound bet to justify passing over the very talented pitchers at the top of the draft?

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