Men

Muddyfrog writes,

Is there any correlation on age arc and large men? The reason I ask is

because we're seeing guys like Bryan LaHair, & Mike Morse peak in their late

twenties. Do you think this may be the case for guys like Smoak, Montero, and

Carp? Or more specifically can you single out a particular group or stereo

type a group of players that tend to peak in their late twenties and early

thirties. What's the median peak age?

Provocative question!

Lots of studies have been done on peak age for the whole population.  Here's a series at Hardball Times and here's material from Tom Tango's epic website.  A good player has his 95-100% results from about age 23 to about age 29-30.

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But we've known that, in its broad outlines, at least since 1980.  To me yours is a much more interesting question:  what is the prototype of the player whose curve is right-shifted on this graph?

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Q.  What kind of studies have been done?

A.  The ones I've seen don't help us.  Bill James' "Strong Season Leading Index" is discussed here, among other places.  

In that article, the Hardball Times was looking at bustout seasons by Russell Branyan, Aaron Hill and Mark Reynolds, and trying to decide whether those players were "for real."  But there are a couple of problemos there that ace us out...

First, James' SSLI is a rotisserie-type device.  As with the very similar BaseballHQ "Breakout Index," this formula is merely looking at the obvious to decide what the NEXT season will be.  It takes into account age - if you're over 30, you're not likely to have your best season coming up.  It takes into account unlucky BABIP.  It takes into account the Plexiglass Principle, that players are likely to rebound to their career averages.  Stuff like that.  

And it's looking for a SINGLE season with up stats.  It's not really designed to identify the next Raul Ibanez.  I haven't seen any studies that do that, although somebody here may know of some.

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Q.  Do pitchers count?

Q.  What are the patterns?

A.  Looks like there is a strong tendency toward guys who got RBI, and who didn't do much else particularly well.  You know what I mean.  As a group, the above players probably don't have 0.70 batting EYE's.  But, come to think of it, neither do they have very poor ones.

As a group, they have midrange EYE's; you're not really talking about guys with "old player's skills," taking a bunch of pitches or anything like that.  Rauuuuuul isn't a pitch stalker.  They have VERY poor speed as a group.  They certainly aren't defenders, either - maybe their gloves would have gotten them more playing time, earlier, but was that factor really decisive for Josh Willingham and Jose Bautista?  Nah.

These guys we listed - it's not a perfect list - but every single one of them is a player with moderate (not weak) talent, who attacks the ball with gusto.  It's definitely a group of 90-RBI men.

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Q.  How does this apply to M's and ex-M's?

A.  Muddyfrog asked about ... oh yeah.  We forgot Bryan Lahair and Mike Morse!  There you go again.  Mediocre EYE's, poor speed, a lot of gusto attacking the ball, larger than average but not huge guys.  Muddyfrog's instincts seem to have served him very well here.  If somebody were to run a study, they might set these kinds of parameters as a first hypothesis.

Of course, on this list you've got Carlos Guillen, Raul Ibanez, Bryan Lahair, Mike Morse... maybe you just need guys who escaped from the old M's player develop system to any other system.

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Q.  C'mon.

A.  Okay...

Smoak, Montero, and Carp?  Mike Carp fits this group perfectly, and if we're on to anything here, that wouldn't mean that Carp has to wait until age 29 to hit.  With Rauuuul and Josh Willingham, we're taking the outer edges of a type of player.  Carp may be at the 60-70 mark where Rauuullll is at the 99 mark.

Felix CHILL Hernandez - I'm the last guy in the world who runs around demanding signatures for PC fealty contracts.  But it isn't often that you'll find either side, on any issue, 100% or 0% right or wrong.  There are substantive ideas in the class-warfare cause also.  In my humble opinion, if nobody else's, America is pretty much down to the last finishing touches on social justice.  But we still hang with our own kind, all of us, and there are subconscious generalizations that persist.

It's a truism that in sports, people of color tend - tend! - to be regarded as physically talented, and whites tend to be regarded as hard-working and/or intelligent.  Bill James wrote a historic piece on this comparing Alan Trammell and Lou Whitaker, double play partners for the Tigers.  Per his most-comparable player formulas, new at the time, "You could hardly find two more comparable players than Trammell and Whitaker."  Yet, James demonstrated, Whitaker was constantly praised for his athletic ability and Trammell got credit for being a heady ballplayer...

My opinion is intended in good humor.  We're not rebuking anybody.  More like in a Sasha Cohen mood.

=== Eric Thames Plays Catch-Up ===

Let's say we didn't have any stats, any background, no performance to go off of?  Let's say we'd just traveled to Cuba to catch a weekend series, and all these guys had been wearing Cuban uniforms?  I'd have said for sure that the M's three good hitters were Carp, Jaso, and Eric Thames.

Next time you get a chance?  Check out how long Thames reads the pitch before he decides whether to swing.  Man, he takes a looooong look.  And then he whips that Jose Lopez speedy gonzalez Andale! Andale!  Arriba! bat through the zone and he can pull anything.

This was Ted Williams' number one rule.  Be quick - quick!, he'd yell at Yaz, breaking him out of a slump.  Thames is one of the quickest batters you'll see.  

............

As far as the template - the attributes and resources - go, our comps will need to mosh off the following defining attributes.  We'll pair off the sparring partners if they're packing these heights and weights:

1. Signature changeup or split
2. A variety of -- at least two other -- very mediocre pitches.  (ONLY putaway pitch is the change/split/gyroball)
3. Short fastball.  Gonna give up HR's
4. Plus command (we may safely assume, once Mr. WBC is comfy in his rocker)
5. World-class poise and, probably, excellent pitchability (consider how quickly he cobbled together some tough starts)

Hm.  Jeff Francis is pretty much like that, but I'll take Hisashi Iwakuma over Francis for my rotation next year.  Francis is averaging a zippy 84.7 MPH on his fastball this year.  Still, if you are particularly contemptuous of Iwakuma's number one, think Jeff Francis.  Who would be a rich Mariner right now if it weren't for the inestimable blessing of Kevin Millwood and his one-year make-good deal.

Chris Capuano - there's a very reasonable stylistic comp.

Shaun Marcum - here's a guy who mixes 5 pitches, maxing at 28% on the fastball (!) and his signature pitch is most definitely the changeup (1.38 run value career).  How in the name of Luis Tiant does this meatball fan 8.4 men per game?  He tops out at 87 MPH and his fastball doesn't rate!