Whale

K-Pax, M's Pull to -2.0 of Toronto

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Intro: Nice to be -2 games back of one team, rather than five. You only need Toronto to have a bad week. Which they absolutely will.

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1. In followup interviews, Jack Zduriencik stated ... um, clearly implied, at the least ... that Taijuan, K-Pax and D.J. Peterson "are our future."

This show-stopping little cliche' was not invented by Zduriencik. But is Dr. D the only one who chokes on this cliche'?

What are the 25 guys on the active roster, for example? And are there no drafts coming up? There is no international scouting, no free agent market? There are no other minor leaguers, than those three? etc.

And wouldn't you have said that Addison Russell and Yoenis Cespedes "were the A's future"?

Besides that: don't two out of three minor leaguers get hurt or fail? How can three bushers "be your future"?

But. Okay. The Mariners love K-Pax. I'm wit' dem.

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2. Paxton's release point was just about 7' off the ground Saturday. If you just joined us, "throwing downhill" takes the ball off the plane of the hitter's bat.

It also produces garbage swings when your knuckle curve starts at the same point...

Rusney Castillo: Level 101 Scan

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Q. Could Rusney Castillo help the Mariners this year?

A. He could, yes. It's feasible that he could.

The last three Cubans to sign big-money deals all slugged .500 in the major leagues as rookies, zero (0) minor league play required.

Cespedes was #10 in the MVP voting as a rookie, 0 minors AB's
Puig has a career OPS+ of 160 (!!), no minors AB's whaaaaatsoever
Jose Abreu is slugging .619 (!) right now. No minor league prep, of course.

The Japanese and Cuban leagues are isolated, like the Negro League was, and the quality goes up and down. Used to be, there were hitters like Ichiro and Godzilla in Japan. Now, apparently none. But Cuba .... wow. Are they on one whale of an uptick.

There was no 90-game league adjustment required, either, as there wasn't for Mojo's dude McGehee. Is it the "trickstering" that you face in Japan and Cuba?

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Here is a Baseball America article that flatly states --- > there are MLB orgs interested in "signing Castillo quickly to help them down the stretch." I guess he'd need thirty games in Minnesota first?

You know, Kendrys Morales went to the majors midseason with no "rehab" time. These "see ball hit ball" players sometimes do that. I wouldn't even rule out Castillo insisting on a contract that has him playing in the majors 5 days after signing.

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Q. What do you mean, "big money signing"?

POTD Kendrys Morales 2014

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Q. Why would anybody read an SSI "article" when --- > the shout box (SBox 5) is available?

A. They don't. We've been approached about using article area (below the fold) for encoded messages. The Shout Box is Dr. D's first stop in the mornin'. B'lee DAT.

I defy you to show me the baseball area that offers the SBox' blend of wit, wisdom, diverse personalities, "hard" news delivered on the nanosecond, and ... its absence of Dr. D. Eh? Thought not.

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Price, fellow Rays making a run for the NW border

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Would Dr. D trade Nick Franklin "in the division"? The A's seem :- ) to realize something nobody else does:

You can't teach EYE. You acquire EYE.
Also, they need a middle infielder now.
Also, 2-3 WAR players at $450K are solid gold.
Also, 4-5 WAR players at club-controls are fairly nice.

So Nick "is a top target" for the A's. Um, yeah. Why wouldn't he be? He's the quintessential Oakland A, right down to the beat-writer-irritating arrogance.

Mike Zunino Goes Upper Tank, Wins Us Anudder One

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Rick sez,

Something about Zunino: his numbers are less than impressive, but you know what? Those are very, as Doc would say, "hard rbi's". Mike doesn't pad his numbers in meaningless games. It seems every home run, every RBI, has an important role in a victory. I think WAR understates his real value, and not just behind the plate.

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1. I think 90% of even the most trenchant saber dogmatists would allow that WAR is tricky for catchers -- catchers handle pitching staffs; it wasn't long ago that "framing" was unmeasured; it is at least very plausible (and actually is taken as a "given" by those in uniform) that catchers impact ERA teamwide; there is SB%, there's position scarcity, yada yada yada. Get you a Gary Carter or a Pudge Rodriguez and you have gone a long, long way towards your pennant.

Coink-y-dink that in Zunino's first full year, the Mariners are finally contenders? I t'ink not, mate :- )

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2. If you take a fast look at "Win Probability Added" (offensively) you will find Zunino at -1.08 wins, worst on the M's other than Smoak and Ackley.

But if you concluded that Zunino has not been delivering "hard RBI's" you would be making a poor assessment. Zunino's "Positive WPA" is +5, highest on the ballclub behind the two Stars and Brad Miller, whereas his -6 "Negative WPA" sinks the overall total.

In other words, Zunino is a .200 hitter, yeah. He makes a ton of outs. This we knew. But when he does connect, he's doing a whale of a lot of damage for a guy with his OBP.

M's split two 50-50 games with Angels

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Tough thing in soccer: the ball chips into open territory. Two fast players have similar angles on it. A "50-50" ball. You have five basic possible outcomes:

You tackle, miss, he nips by you and you've allowed a horrible fast break against your team
You or he tackles, stops the attack, and what happens next is anybody's guess (another 50-50 ball maybe)
You back up, play the angle, and concede possession
He backs up, plays the angle, and concedes you possession
He tackles, misses, you nip by him and there's your exciting counter on

Notice that the intelligent thing to do, short-term, might be to concede a few more balls than teams actually do. The impactful thing to do is to stick a cleat into the ball. Remember Kam Chancellor's first play in the Super Bowl? Toughness warps the game.

M's rumored, lightly, for Zobrist + Price

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This is just a first-generation triangulation, which is the hardest. As y'know, SSI is a think tank. Help us out here.

The thing I like best about a Price deal, is that (1) if you cough up Taijuan, you might get a value on Zobrist, and (2) I think K-Pax is a good ways ahead of Taijuan in line.

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Franklin + ? for Zobrist

According to the best sources, which are okay sources, "has been going on for weeks." This pairing of names is all over the place. It's logical of course, especially the positions.

It says here that you've got the definition of a win-win, balanced trade.

Franklin and sweeteners for --- >a final puzzle-piece type guy? You tell me.

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Sense and Sensibility, Dept.

DJ for Zobrist, redux

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Prospects for veterans, those trades are understandable to 30 GM's, if not to $/WAR paradigmists. When you trade good prospects you are acknowledging that they might very well become club-controlled stars; you're not trying to treat fellow GM's like a used-car salesman would.

When an Adam Jones, much less a Wil Myers or Addison Russell, turns out to hit #3 for the other team, in real life a GM is (ostensibly) GLAD that the other team is satisfied with its trade return. GM's are classy people, generally speaking, who deal in Win-Win scenarios. They want a rep for delivering the goods when they trade.

Real baseball does not deal in "let's rip off the other side" paradigms.

You get your ace for 1.5 years - Jeff Samardzija - and you assure the other GM "you're getting quite a player there in Addison Russell." Oakland fans are not going to spend 10 years wringing their hands that Russell plays well for the Cubs, which he will. They want their TOR starter, because this year's pennant is worth something, too.

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Zobrist at his age is a complementary piece, not a feature piece, so the argument morphs. Back on topic:

In an unrelated point, Gordon, for some reason, didn't put this gem on the front page...

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You don't trade D.J. for Zobrist because D.J. is your #1 prospect. (This rightly presumes Zobrist is far less desirable than Samardzija or Bedard - Dr. D)

... now that Paxton and Walker are presumed to be big-league rotation parts, let's say. Maybe he's #2 behind Jackson, but little AJ is currently 6 levels away from the bigs, and DJ is in AA, starred in the Futures Game, and should be ready by Spring 2016 if we wanna take it slow.

You don't spend your best trade chip and top-50 minor league prospect on a pretty decent player. It devalues the rest of your system. ;-)

Our system/young player list breaks down like this:

Level 101 Grok: Marlon Byrd

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Q. What's the bottom line here?

A. No bottom line here. This is just a first impression of Marlon Byrd, WITHOUT any (of my own) detailed analysis driving it.

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Q. So, like we said. What's the bottom line here?

A. For me, Byrd is a cosmetic change. Not unlike the Cheney merry-go-round.

I wouldn't play Byrd in front of Michael Saunders; I sure as shootin' would play him in front of either Chavez or Ackley, or "DH Surprise Stew." :: shrug ::

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Tom Wlhelmsen Crashes the Stage

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One of the most tense games Dr. Detecto has sat downto in a year or eight. We thoroughly enjoyed the (illusory) feeling of "promoting" a secret weapon and then having half the game stare down onto your kid, and you, on every pitch. I can't imagine how the real shot-callers deal with these postgames every night. Whew.

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Dr. D's Postgame Offer Changes!

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