POTD Andrew Moore, Right Hand PITCHER - Close

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We've mentioned that a good AA/AAA pitcher has to have SOME thing he does EXCELLENTLY if he wants the bright lights and big city.  Cha Seung Baek kinda had four pitches and he did everything decently.  That's a good PCL pitcher.  A quality American League pitcher has a bread-and-butter weapon of SOME kind -- amazing command, or a parachute changeup, or something.

Dr. D purports to list a handful! of things Andrew Moore does better than AAA pitchers do them.  But hey now, Andrew Moore is not the 19-year-old Felix Hernandez.  He's not on any top 10 prospect lists.  There has to be something wrong.  Those things could be:

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CAVEAT 1

Moore only got one swing-and-miss among his 50 excellent pitches Saturday.  Strikeouts are necessary.  This is not a burial; it's an interesting topic for discussion.

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CAVEAT 2

We saw three innings.  (True, they were three innings that matched the saber statement of Moore's 1+ walk rate in AA last year.)  But in fairness, we can't imagine that Moore goes 12-for-13 on King Felix (TM) sequences every time out.

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Sizzlers and Fizzlers, 10-6*

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TOMORROW'S NEWS TODAY

The Peoria Mariners started off 5-1 and we warned you, we WARNED you, that the "Mariners" :: finger quote marks :: were about to go 7-19 while the Dominican ran roughshod over the Global Series.  As a group, you doubted me.  But again Sunday, the Angels crushed the Mariners like a juice box.  Lowering the Mariners' record to 10-6, which is more or less 7-19.  Are you ever going to stop questioning us?

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Roster Churn

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Jerry Dipoto's latest fanciful trade moved Fangraphs to protest.  Well, at least one of their commenters protested ... that his fantasy LEAGUE had never totalled 43 (?) trades in any calendar year.  Fangraphs itself said,

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“We had a much more targeted list of players who we felt fit our needs,” explained Dipoto. “Last year, when I first got here, we didn’t want to start trading off, wholesale, players from the minor leagues who we didn’t know and hadn’t had a chance to evaluate. But we knew we had needs (and) we filled those needs with one-year players, like Adam LindDae-Ho LeeNori AokiChris IannettaSeth Smith on a one-plus-one.

“This year, we took that next step, trying to transition our roster into a more athletic defense-oriented group without giving up all of the offensive goodness. We’re not looking to go out in a fantasy baseball type way and improve a position because Player A is better than Player B, especially if the player we have its what we’re trying to do.”

Whether or not Dipoto is steering the Pequod remains to be seen.

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How Many Players Must Have Good Years to Win?

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Our old friend Steve Nelson used to do a great job reminding us that --- > we get too tempted to figure "18 guys will have normal years and 7 guys will have good years."  In reality, said Steve, NOBODY is going to have the same year as last year.  Figure on as many of them going down, as going up.  Unless your team is very young.

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How Many MARINERS Will Have Good Years?

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We'll remember again that James' fine study -- see the front page of Bill James Online for the article, which is probably behind the paywall -- has its limitations.  Every player is a +1 or a -1, regardless.  If James Paxton goes 25-3, 1.97 and Felix goes 15-10, 3.75, that's going to be plus one and minus one versus career norms.   Also, if Hisashi Iwakuma does a little skosh better in terms of K's, BB's, HR's, etc but only pitches 90 innings, that's a +1.

But still.  It means SOMETHING when you say "the Cubs last year were +17 -8.  The Indians last year were +13.  The Royals in 2015 were +15 -9.  The Giants in 2014 were +13 -9, but were only +6 -7 pitching."  By the time you add up a whole ROSTER of these seasons for a team, things start to even out.  Maybe 'Kuma will only throw 90 innings and have a slightly down year ... but maybe Max Povse will throw 85 good innings.

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THE GOOD, THE BAD & THE UGLY Dept.

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Man of the Match: Chris Heston!

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Objectively speaking, Chris Heston was 12-11, 3.95 in the National League two years ago.  Objectively speaking, on Friday he was throwing a remarkable swerveball -- 89 MPH but an armside runnnn as though he gouged a huge piece out of the ball on the 3B side and then threw it with perfect backspin.  Objectively speaking, Chris Heston has always had a very high groundball rate despite a lack of much downward movement on his pitches.

But what the Mainframe loved, loved, loved, was the "finish" on his pitches.  Heston is a Tim Hudson fanboy and he threw every pitch as if WILLING it to its correct location at the bottomside of the hitter's bat.  At times he fairly jumped up and down on the mound with the 'elan he was trying to get on his fingersnap.

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Fizzler: Dan Vogelbach

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Everybody sez, "Write what you know."  Unfortunately, the market for web content on bizarre rains of animals isn't lucrative.  So Dr. D writes what OTHER people know.  Moe sez,

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Matt, has any study been done on spin rates and fly ball carry?  Golfers know, for example, that with a particular ball velocity, there is a spin rate that maximizes carry. Tour golfers go to great lengths to maximize length (with the driver) by matching spin and launch speed.  In general, the higher the launch speend the more you want to reduce spin to get greater distance.  Balls respond differently to atmospheric conditions, as well.  

So I'm wondering aloud if certain spin rates off the bat respond better or worse to certain atmospheric conditions?  I would guess that they do, but I wonder if any study has ever been done in baseball.

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I ain't Matt, but until he comes along to answer precisely, Dr. D feels free to answer loosely.  Who'd have expected a big mouth coming from HIM? ...

The general consensus as of right now is that Spin Rate be a wild goose chase in baseball.  Every sport is going to have things similar and things different.  Seems to me this would be a likely place of difference between hardball and golf, since you can't tee up a baseball and apply a Big Bertha 454 Titanium to it with fade angle as desired.  (Dr. D cannot do this anyway, but we told you right up front we were talking about what MOE knows.)

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