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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bkpsxsti42A
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bkpsxsti42A
Cherry picking, I know.
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Everybody sez, "Write what you know." Unfortunately, the market for web content on bizarre rains of animals isn't lucrative. So Dr. D writes what OTHER people know. Moe sez,
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Matt, has any study been done on spin rates and fly ball carry? Golfers know, for example, that with a particular ball velocity, there is a spin rate that maximizes carry. Tour golfers go to great lengths to maximize length (with the driver) by matching spin and launch speed. In general, the higher the launch speend the more you want to reduce spin to get greater distance. Balls respond differently to atmospheric conditions, as well.
So I'm wondering aloud if certain spin rates off the bat respond better or worse to certain atmospheric conditions? I would guess that they do, but I wonder if any study has ever been done in baseball.
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I ain't Matt, but until he comes along to answer precisely, Dr. D feels free to answer loosely. Who'd have expected a big mouth coming from HIM? ...
The general consensus as of right now is that Spin Rate be a wild goose chase in baseball. Every sport is going to have things similar and things different. Seems to me this would be a likely place of difference between hardball and golf, since you can't tee up a baseball and apply a Big Bertha 454 Titanium to it with fade angle as desired. (Dr. D cannot do this anyway, but we told you right up front we were talking about what MOE knows.)
In fact this spring it's all the rage to talk about uppercut swings, and here's J.D. Martinez speaking of line shots through the middle the way you might expect a PETA spokeswoman to speak of warped-fin Orca at Sea World. Martinez, and Josh Donaldson, and Mitch Haniger, and Jeff Sullivan, all appear convinced that the answer to the universe is either 46, or else getting your back shoulder down to the level of your knee as you swat the bottom of a pitched baseball.
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In this context it's been hard not to notice that Dan Vogelbach is doing precisely the opposite, and not in an "I disagree" kind of way. More in an "I can't do that" kind of way. Any kind of high pitch that Vogelbach pulls, his back shoulder gets higher (?!) than his yukky bunched awkward front shoulder, and his weight floats, and he takes a lumberjack-y arm swing that fairly vibrates against the ball on contact. The result is a blonked fliner to the right side.
Hey, SSI is about full disclosure. At this point Dr. D cannot imagine even a single home run for Dan Vogelbach, though he hit 20-some of them last year. Maybe he'll get some low-in fastballs and show some torque. Didn't rule it out; just said we can't IMAGINE it as of now. ... :- )
Let's suppose this worst nightmare of Dr. D's became absolute reality, as most of Dr. D's worst nightmares do, especially with respect to Nate Karns. Can you be a good first baseball at 6'0", 250#, and .102 ISO? Hey, Sean Casey's age-28 season was .291/.350/.408. There are first basemen like John Olerud and Billy Butler who in many seasons hit .290, .300, walks and gentle gap power. .... siiiggghhhhh.
Have got to admit, with the kind of player Dan Vogelbach is, those blonked pull fliners have given my stomach a slow roll to the left.
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If Dr. D is depressing you a little bit:
(1) John Olerud, in his age-24 season, hit .365 with a 186 OPS+. Such players can get hot and go 'nanas.
(2) With the platoon advantage specifically, 'Bach could hit .330/.400/.450 even if he wasn't too good.
(3) Adam Lind hit .239/.286/.431 for us last year.
Hey. A good doctor gives it to yer straight. We'll see whether Bach can turn on a pitch or not. But it's probly gonna be the Or Not.
Cheers,
Jeff
Comments
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... :- )
This article and that link should go into the Ted Williams cyber-vault. Heh.
...more seriously, will be watching still to see how often he gets the bottom shoulder down, but yeah. That makes me feel better. Knew we could count on you Moe :- )
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Still reading all the time. But you lost me a bit here my friend :) I hoped years ago the M's would trade for Vogelbach and finally got my wish. Doc, he's always had plus power :) Frist saw him here:
How about a bomb off something sholuder high from a lefty (swing is about 22 seconds in)?
http://www.milb.com/multimedia/vpp.jsp?content_id=958396783&sid=milb
Or a leisurely swat to dead center?
http://www.milb.com/multimedia/vpp.jsp?content_id=24653057&sid=milb
Man, I thought you loved hitters that weren't greedy? Vogelbach takes what is given but will also go on power tears.
Here we get what looks a little like a reach-out already on his front foot Ichiro swing just fouling the pitch off into the stands down the 3rd base line....... oh, wait.... it's a bomb opposite field. Looks like he barely swung:
http://www.milb.com/multimedia/vpp.jsp?content_id=678493883&sid=milb
All in good fun though Doc. Frequently in agreement with you even though I don't log in to say it often enough. Hopefully this doesn't come off as too LrKrBoi ;) Jsut some good swings for all to enjoy and hopefully get you to stop worrying about the power this man has.
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Early on in ST, it annoyed me that he was arm-swinging some high fastballs. ... Lou was wringing his hands over Ichiro early in the first camp. Some things you file under "first two weeks."
Muchly enjoy writing something up and having you guys laughingly correct me. :- )
+1
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That the situation has been reminding me of Ichiro,etc...I'm waiting to see more as well but I know it's there this time because I've seen it.
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I still don't get it. Hard to see how that ball clears the infield by much, let alone goes over the fence. Well, slap me silly. A sports motion I just don't begin to understand, so 'twill provide many happy moments of reflection (unless one of you amigos solves the riddle FOR us).
For sure this guy is as non-greedy as it gets and that is a beautiful thing, even in the moral sense. A wonderful aiki attitude.
How does he get that kind of energy? ... whaa ..? Moe, you think wrist hinge is a big factor? That barrel is lagging pretty good considering he's going to get way out in front of the plate.
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He flies open the front side and drops the back shoulder, a lot like I remember Edmonds doing on highlight reel pull-shots. That little 'hitch-hop' in Edmonds' swing is absent here, which I could *never* eliminate when I was mocking his swing in the backyard, so I'm probably missing something.
Carlos Pena, though...I see a *lot* of similarity in the way Vog brings the hands in, drops the head, and 'hits with his hips' instead of nicely-cradled arms a la Edgar.
And yeah, he's *definitely* got a couple of obvious hinges in his swing. The wrists are one, but in my own experience all that the extra hinge in the wrists does is rob you of contact ability, not power. His back shoulder drop *seems* consistent with how I used to manufacture an uppercut pull swing when I'd tinker around with different lefty swings. Again, it takes the swing plane of the bat out of the sweet spot quicker than a more upright, level swing path but the advantage is you can pull more pitches.
I dunno...that's what I see.
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I was horrified when our slow pitch softball team had all of our swings put on vid-e-ooooo tape many years ago. Mine looked like low hands Eric Davis without a follow through. Fast forward several years later and there it was on tv, the swing looked a whole heck of a lot like Glenallen Hill! A weird stiffarm thing with little follow through. Yet somehow the ball still jumped off the bat. I'd even hit some balls the knuckled. Vogelbach doesn't swing quite like Hill, but it has the look of something that is not going to play well. Vogelbach just doesn't have that beautiful, flowing follow through to pose and admire the flight of the ball with. Yet he and Hill both could (can) really give the ball a ride. I think a more blunt clubbing motion perhaps reduces the spin to a knuckle that continues to float. Just a wild guess. Or maybe lots of power packed into a smaller swing motion. Didn't you do an article on Bruce Lee one inch punch a few years back?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7wDrw76ieTs
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++ I was horrified when our slow pitch softball team had all of our swings put on vid-e-ooooo tape many years ago. Mine looked like low hands Eric Davis without a follow through. ++
Mine too! Exactly. Managed to address it a little bit by getting real low and moving the CG a lot, but never did get the wrist hinge right.
Ya, have talked about the Bruce Lee thing, mostly in reference to aiki "moving without motion," which was an Ichiro thing too.
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I think Doc is right that Vogs isn't a flyball hitter and won't ever blast 30 bombs.
I think the peanut gallery is right that Vogs has big time power.
A couple of compromise points to consider:
1) A hulking monster of a lumberjack can get away with a clunky sports motion. He can just get the bat to the ball and flip it with his arms and it goes 400 feet.
2) He has preferred a John Olerud swing path (liners)
3) He has excellent plate coverage and batting eye.
All of which is to say...he's about as bankable a .300/.400/.480 hitter as you can get who hasn't yet proven it.
Also...if I had to guess as to how the power is being generated from such a static arm swing, I'd say...that's what muscles do.
That's what I think NOW...but question for you guys? How similar is Vogelbach to Justin Smoak?
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Listing 10 similarities and 10 differences between 'Bach and Smoak ... whittling to 1 and 1 ...
1) Smoak's pedigree was tippy-top
2) I hope never again to witness Justin Smoak's grimace at the plate with two strikes
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Just FYI...he was in the same cluster of hitters as the Maniger for "hits ball really hard to the pull side" in 2016.
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I like that guy pretty well based on his stats but all the raving you guys have been doing has me adding him in dynasty keeper leagues. Thanks for all the hype this winter Matt and everyone! In a 20 team dynasty keeper league that just started from scratch I eneded up drafting Segura, Maniger, Vogelbach, Edwin Diaz and Smyly. I am drunk with optimism for the real life 2017 M's and for fantasy purposes as well. Used to avoid Safeco hitters like the plague, hope this doesn't backfire :) Dipoto continues to make moves for player types I really like with what appear to be limited ceilings but higher chances of success. There are plenty of chances for Kyle Seager, Kyle Hendricks, Josh Donaldson, Charlie Blackmon types to develop and emerge "out of nowhere".
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Doc I don't think your instinctual reaction is wrong here. Vogelbach's swing will limit his power potential IMO.
He has good raw power, but it doesn't play often enough in game to make it plus. He wierdly swings like a contact/oppo hitter, but doesn't have the high contact/pitch recognition skills that usually come with it. And as a power hitter he is strangely lacking due to the approach/swing.
The type of approach Vogelbach uses only works with guys that have insane hand-eye coordination (which Vogelbach does not seem to have) and usually packaged with speed. Vogelbach is very strange in that his swing and approach does not utilize his natural strengths (patience/power).
Given the lack of defensive value and big RH/LH splits on top of it, I'm actually not expecting much from him (.240/.330/.400-ish?) unless he revamps his swing like Haniger managed to.
I wish Martin and Vogelbach would trade swings.
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Looking forward to battling you in the Stratonerds league again this year :)
If you check my post above #3 the first vimeo video (around 4 minutes in) shows Vogelbach in a HR contest in high school. His swing has a much more traditional follow through when he wants to let the bat fly. Is that more what you'd be looking for to utilize his natural power? If he has swung all-out that way in the past he can probably dial it up again as he becomes more comfortable with MLB pitching. Edgar might be able to guide him and steadily increase his ISO as the career ufolds.
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Hey man! Best of luck on the year. :-)
I do think Vogelbach has the natural power to pull off a flyball approach, but his swing and approach are more tailored toward a line drive/GB approach.
I'm personally not very high on him, but he has potential if he can fix his swing.
Its not an O'Neill situation where I believe he is gauranteed to fail, but he is a bit of a project and somewhat unlikely to reach his upside because it requires a major fix IMO.
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Vogs is a front-leg hitter in that he gets on top of his right leg really early. However, he couples that with the ability to keep his hands back as long as possible. It is bound to look a bit odd. As I stop and start some of those videos linked above, I'm amazed at how long he stays square, after getting on to his right side. Then he just opens up into the ball at the last moment.
I've tried to find a left-landed hitter that he reminds me of but there isn't a real good match. If you exclude the follow-through, he reminds me some of Tony Gywnn in the front leg/hands back sense.
More than anybody I think he reminds me of Bubba Watson. Different sport, I know, but Bubba gets onto his right leg like that, and still stays square until the very last moment. He has funky follow through, too.
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Those ugly swings I've seen have come with two strikes, a shift and pitchers going outside on him. Looks to me like he's just taking what they're giving him for now.
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He's kind of a throwback to the "hit it where it's pitched" era, takes a good long look ... if the ball's on him quicker than he expected then he's got a good emergency swing too.
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Best player discussion in weeks and it's on a Saturday. :- )