History

The motivation to homeschool

Over at the Living Free Project, there is a post about why the author home educates her children, and I thought I would share it to find out what you think about it. In my own heart, I agree with Alonso; I think mammals are meant to learn from their own families and communities, and as much as we deny our biological instincts when it comes to parenting, working and even eating, it is something we should at least attempt to understand.

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ChocoLee Chocolates

With a long history of working with some of the highest-rated restaurants in the Boston area, the owner of ChocoLee Chocolates has all the experience needed to put together some of the best chocolates and treats. The customers and the critics seem to agree, as during its short time in operation this shop has received much praise. If you’re looking for a place that will help you put together a unique and amazing gift, this is one to check out. And they even offer a class on truffle making, which could make for an amazing date. Has anyone been

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'Tis the Season for Good Cheer

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Just got my Forecaster. Order yours here -- if you choose the auto-renew, they'll send you one a year, and you can download the .pdf immediately. By the way, I had some problems figuring out how to get my own .pdf downloaded, and their customer service was super great. Lynda Knezovich e-mailed back and forth with me five times, making sure I was squared away. :: golfclap ::

We was gonna hit the sack, but ... what's an Xmas morning without yer Hot Stove e-zine. As you know, we live to serve.

So here are three of the cheeriest things in the Forecaster. Great with java and jinjerbread.

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Justin Smoak

HQ thinks that Justin Smoak is ready to deliver in 2014:

"Natural" and "Conditional" Effects

At BJOL this morning, James brought up a new paradigm -- the issue of "Natural" and "Conditional" effects.

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The current use of closers is not as irrational as models may make it look because these are human beings. I have managed a lot of different types of workers over the years. In general, people are a lot more effective when they know what is going to be expected of them. A closer who can get into a routine, pace himself, watch the score and get himself physically and mentally ready as necessary may be a more effective pitcher. Trying to identify the highest leverage use puts him in a situation where he has to prepared to go in at any time in the game, it assumes that the manager knows when to best use him, it risks warming him up a couple of times and not bringing him in... So while not theoretically ideal, in real life bullpen roles may help pitchers to be more effective when they are used and takes away what could become a very complicated calculus from a manager. And that may be worth the trade off. Plus, of course, for the reliever, a certain status from being a closer.

Asked by: raincheck

Answered: 12/23/2013

Well. . .I think you are sort of on the corner of the truth there. I don't doubt that what you are saying is true; it's a little imprecise. Combining this issue and the issue we were also discussing, about why runs scored are low in post-season. .. . 1) We sometimes tend to assume, in our field, that you can manage real players the way you would manage an ABPA or Strat-o-Matic team, 2) This assumption is very useful, in that it flies in the face of a lot of conventional wisdom which is actually nonsense, but 3) This assumption is not absolutely valid, either.

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Conventional wisdom ties together all manner of performance units into imaginary packages. Conventional wisdom, for example, holds that hitting is contagious, when in reality it is not. Conventional wisdom assumes that if a hitter has 8 hits in his last 11 at bats, he is red hot (and thus more likely to get a hit in his next at bat), whereas if he is 0-for-15, he is "cold", and thus less likely to get a hit in his next at bat. Conventional wisdom believes that if you put Good Hitter B in the lineup behind Good Hitter A, that will make Good Hitter A a better hitter, when in reality it will not. Conventional wisdom insists that if you put a fast base runner on base, the next hitter will see more fastballs and thus will hit better, when in reality he will not. These are major assumptions that we hear constantly, but there are a thousand more like them that we hear occasionally or infrequently.

Clutch hitting is a conditional effect--a major one, obviously. If a pitcher has to run the bases, the announcer will question whether this will cause him to lose effectiveness the next inning, although studies have shown no such effect. Generally speaking, whenever the sportswriter or announcer tries to tie together one event in a baseball game with another, he is usually spouting nonsense, and one should generally ignore him. Tim McCarver would insist to the end of his career that if a leadoff man drew a walk, it was dramatically more likely that he would score (and dramatically more likely that there would be a big inning) than if the leadoff man hit a single. Sometimes he would put a number with this supposed difference. In reality, there is no difference whatsoever; a leadoff walk has exactly the same effect as a leadoff single. Another popular one is the idea that after Team A scores a run, it is really important for them to have a "shut down inning", and prevent the other team from "answering" the run.

In our area we tend to ignore this kind of blather, and assume that each player has a skill set and each combination of players has a set of probable outcomes, which are the same without regard to who is on deck, whether there is a fast runner on base, whether the runner on first reached by hit or error, etc.

Players are players; they do what they do. This is generally true, but it is not ABSOLUTELY true.

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I like to distinguish between NATURAL effects, which are those effects which would be replicated in a simulation (or table game) of ordinary sophistication, and CONDITIONAL effects, which are those effects which are dependent on conditions of the game, and would NOT be replicated in a simulation or table game of ordinary sophistication.

Verona, Italy

Fictional home of the legendary Romeo and Juliet, the Italian city of Verona is a marvel of history and culture that makes for a perfect romantic getaway destination. It also happens to be a place that attracts fewer tourists than such popular spots as Rome or Venice. Despite the lesser number of visitors, Verona is no less stunning than its rivals. Visit the many ancient Roman ruins while there and take a tour through history, seeing the passage of time written across the architectural wond

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Harbin, China

Located in the far northeastern region of China, the city of Harbin is yet another great spot from which to explore this country of history and culture. One of the country’s largest cities, you’ll find everything you need in this urban metropolis. For couples looking to take an amazing winter vacation, Harbin is the place to go. Starting in January and lasting for more than a month they have the Harbin Ice and Snow Festival, a massive event in which people display some huge and unique ic

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Media Hijinks - Reboots, Casting and Lists

Well, this week has been another of mixed blessings. For while original projects have been getting some good news, Hollywood still has its head firmly up its backside and is looking to adapt and reboot even more franchises, the latest being some of the worst ideas in the world (not quite as bad as Naked Gun or The Crow, but pretty close). So scroll down to experience all the horror.

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Kazan, Russia

Couples that wish to take a holiday exploring the beautiful land of Russia should consider making the city of Kazan one of their stops. Located along the VolgaRiver, this amazing city has a long history behind it and a wealth of historic and cultural sites that hold testament to its place in Russia. Visitors should make sure to seek out all the museums and theaters in the city as well as sampling some of its renowned re

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Charleston, South Carolina

A bastion of American history, the city of Charleston is a great destination for couples looking to take a holiday away. This big city still retains all the charm of a much smaller town, with beautiful architecture and an authentic Southern feel. There are hundreds of historic and cultural sites to visit if you wish to learn more about the city. Or you can spend your time exploring the modern Charleston, with its top-notch fine dining, unique luxury hotels, splendid beaches, museums, galleries and more. Or take a jour

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Rome, Italy

There are few cities that rank higher on the scale of romantic places to visit than the great Italian city of Rome. This metropolis is built around and within all its amazing historic sites, and it has so many of them that you’re never far from something to see. In addition to the culture and history of the country, you can also explore some of the best fine dining establishments in the world. Hotels are many and varied and whether you’re coming to Rome on a budget or have plenty to spend, there’s always something

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