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1 Felix.
Fun fact of the day for yer. At the -62 runs per year Felix has established for himself, he could team with two 1.5 WAR starters and exceed the 2011 WAR of Josh Beckett, Jon Lester and Clay Buchholz, the three best SP's of the 2011 Boston Red Sox.
Felix + 1.5 WAR + 1.5 WAR > Boston's Big Three.
::: MUFASA!! :::
::: shudder ::: ... >:-} Hey, say it again!
::: muuuufasssa! :::
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This rat cheer: POTD Kevin Millwood 2
Precious few 37-year-olds can still slice off a cut fastball. Kevin Millwood's elbow ligaments are made of leather, and his pitches still break two ways, left and right. He still has (had, at last sighting) the plus command.
Combine 4-5 pitches with command, and with MLB(TM) moxie and you've got a pitcher who WILL be effective. We're not talking about a #6 finish in the Cy, but if Millwood comes to camp throwing 88-89 mph, you can bank the 2.7 WAR.
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=== Rode Hard, Put Away Wet Dept. ===
If you ax an MLB insider what is going on here, this is what he'll say. The thing about both Iwakuma and Millwood is that they were both down to 84 at times last year. It's more than possible that either, or both, is kaput, that's all she wrote. SOME spring will come in which they're clocking 84 mph, lousy command, just done done done when your daddy takes your fastball awayyyyy...
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Q. Why can he still pitch?
A. Millwood's cut fastball, and slider, are still effective, that's why. Blinkin' few 37-year-old pitchers can still snap off a cut fastball. This guy is made outta leather, or somethin'.
Why do you think Andrew Bailey went out as cheap as he did? 100 innings, and the man's cut fastball is lost in intergalactic space. Bailey's elbow was ruined after, like, 300 cut fastballs total. The guy is going to be closing on guts and guile. Hope the Boston writahs cut him some slack.
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Q. Remind me again what a cutter is?
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... to win 95.
Back in the 1970's, Hall of Fame QB Fran Tarkenton wrote a book. There was a paragraph in there, on page 138 or something, that stuck with me for thirty years.
Tarkenton talked about some game that his team lost by a low score ... I think probably it was the 1974 Super Bowl, which went to the Steel Curtain by a 16-6 score.
The sportswriters had snarked at him, after the game, whether he felt bad for his defense. You get it? The guys on the other side of the locker room deserved to win. And you let them down by not holding up your end of the bargain.
at this URL. If we Photoshopped a Mariners' uniform over Morgan, and put Ichiro's head on there, would you suspect anything wrong?! Here's an Ichiro pic from the same point.
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The 1995 and 1997 M's made the playoffs; in 1996, without Randy Johnson, they didn't. But under the new rules, 1996 would have been one more shot for Junior and Bone.
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=== Seattle Mariners ===
Do you realize that the 2007 Mariners, the 88-win club with Batista, Washburn, HoRam, and Jeff Weaver flanking Felix, that they would have made the playoffs? That team had a lineup jammed full of above-average hitters.
Well, they sort of made the playoffs. They would have had a playoff with the #6 team, the 88-win Tigers, and the winner of that game would have had an elimination game with the 94-win Wild Card1 New York Yankees.
Looking back at the schedule in 2007, the M's would have burned Felix on the last day of the regular season to beat Texas 4-2.
Then they'd have had a hot Jarrod Washburn go against Detroit in the elimination game. If Washburn had won that one, Miguel Batista would have gone against the Yankees in the Bronx ...
And then if the M's had won that, they'd have entered the 4-team AL playoffs against three 95-win teams: Boston, Cleveland, and the Angels. :- )
Hey, they weren't going to survive all that, but c'mon. As the rules were, they just went home without a fight.
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Geoff Baker, pressing his demand for a Prince Fielder play, had a killer line for opponents. "Why did you offer Felix a contract before you were ready to win?" (Do Mets writers battle locals who protest that the local club is threatening to bring in great players?)
And if we're having trouble digesting where Zduriencik stands on blue-chippers who are ready to win in the AL, we might go back to Pineda.
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My view is that Z is likely going to be VERY squeamish about having players skip AAA completely. I think Z understands that there are "organizational" benefits to making even (maybe especially) the bonus baby talents showcase their talents at multiple levels.
Well, you would be, amigo, we realize.
And it's logical to assume that Jack Zduriencik would think like an old-school player development guy.
But, from where I sit, Zduriencik is mercifully unencumbered by the "Paying yer dues" mindset.
And in this specific case, Zduriencik gushed late in 2011 that "I think James Paxton is going to come to spring training and make a statement [about his role on the 2012 Mariners]." Zduriencik has been clear that Paxton is pitching for an ML job in 2012.
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Q. Do Japanese pitchers disappoint? Does SSI concede any "lessons learned" from DiceK and Typhoon Irabu?
A. Well, at the outset Dr. D will cheerfully admit that he's not as dead-on certain about these transitions as he (and the Boston Red Sox) were before Matsuzaka arrived.
Still, for one thing, Darvish is bigger than DiceK, throws harder, and has performed much better. Darvish's career ERA is 2.12, compared to DiceK's Japanese ERA about a full run higher.
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Secondly, I'm convinced that Matsuzaka's arm was fatigued when he got here. In Y3 here, he developed serious hip and arm problems.
Bobby Valentine said about Hideki Irabu, that Nolan Ryan had agreed with Valentine that neither had seen anything like Irabu in his prime. I wonder to what extent we see an NPB pitchers' best over here...
Darvish is 25 and, apparently, throwing at his best. DiceK, in his last few years in Japan, did seem to have some burnout showing. But that's hindsight. NPB fans could remark on it more intelligently.
