Marco Gonzalez Groks

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CAVEATS and QUID PRO QUO's Dept.

The Mainframe would like to have this trade back.  We're not trying to grovel a paper trade victory here.

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ZOOM ZOOM Dept.

Billy Zoom nailed a prediction on a Cards-or-Dodgers ML ready starter for an M's outfielder.  That, amigos, is quite a call.  Bat571 seems to have been with him; check me on that because nothing against Bat but my memory is worthless.  :- )

Neither Zoom or Dipoto are selling Gonzalez as an elite prospect; Dipoto withheld his "premium prospects" exactly because he didn't get the young TOR he craved.  But Zoom is willing to chime in towards Gonzalez' upside, predicting not only success but an actual #2 starter within 2 years.  

Which would be something because Dipoto emphasized Marco's "preparation and readiness" for 2017.  A 100+ ERA would indeed help the club muchly if it is out of the #5 slot.

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The Marco Template

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LHP with STRAIGHT CHANGEUP

You're wayyyyy too familiar with Dr. D's liking of left hand pitchers with yo-yo changeups and life on their fastballs.  In fact the only three LHP's recently who featured straight changeups with decent heat were Cole Hamels, Francisco Liriano and the young Johan Santana, which was why we liked the Danny Hultzen lotto ticket.  A template doesn't always pan out, but it broadens the bandwidth of success.

Again, Mark Melancon explained why a straight changeup, if well sold, limits a hitter's subliminal cues on the pitch. A great change makes the batter see the pitch rather than feel it out of the hand.  The other slowwww pitch is a change curve, but there you've got the disaster hang scenario.  When Andrew Moore hung one against the Yankees, here came da Judge to sentence the pitch to back-wall detention.

So, yeah, gimme a weaponized changeup and I'm three yards ahead of yer in a 40-yard dash.

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Sizzlers and Fizzlers, 7.22.17

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SIZZLER - The King!

Posted his first dominant performance in approximately a time, times and half a time.  If "time" be six months to a year, that is.

The more that Felix v3.0 "pitches backwards," passing offspeed pitches to set up the fastball off tackle runs, the better Dr. D likes it.  Thursday he pitched Japanese, with 28 dry spitters and 20 yakkers with 19 sliders, against only 40 fastballs.  Which he painted carefully, the picture of focus and concentration as he stepped around the Sanchez/Judge/et al pipe bombs.

Blowers aptly put it, Felix doesn't have a power fastball any more but he does have a power changeup and a power curve.  Just so!  A power 86 MPH slider into the bargain.

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Articles on David Phelps

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In Spring Training this year, Fangraphs' Alex Chamberlain made Phelps one of his "Ten Fearless Predictions" or somesuch.  The prediction:  that Phelps would be a Top of Rotation (TOR) starter.  Top 60 is what he said technically; if you shuffled 60 baseball cards and dealt them out to each team, they'd get two each, so, TOR.  Phelps and Mike Montgomery were his two hunches for SP.

Dipoto gave us about 25 words on Phelps :- ) a few of which were to the subject of Phelps' versatility, that he can spot start.  

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David Phelps, RHP - Chat Thread

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Mainframe grok of NL short man David Phelps later in the afternoon.  'Till then we start with some of the Denizens:

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SABRMatt  Don't know who they are yet...this isn't the type of asset I'd want to give anything too close to the big leagues in terms of prospects for...so...let's see who it is. But Phelps will definitely help the Mariner bullpen find some stability and take the pressure off of badly-overused options like Vincent and Pazos.

Supposedly, one of the minor leaguers is a center fielder and the other three are pitchers.

Dang...FOUR players for Phelps?

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M's 7, Sox 6 in 10 innings

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SOX 6 ...

No excuses for Andrew Moore.  He was never going to throw 100% quality starts.  And if he doesn't actively impose a sense of confusion on hitters, he is subject to getting beaten soundly about the head and shoulders.  As is Hisashi Iwakuma.

We talked last week about the fact that most pulled fly balls are off 'tasty' pitches.  The first two homers off Moore were not tasty ... as such, in a vacuum.  They were executed exactly as Zuumball called them and set his mitt.  So how could a nicely-executed pitch wind up scattering the peanut hawkers?  

Bill Krueger, aptly I thought, tut-tutted about the pitch selection as opposed to the pitch execution.  For example, the two-run jack that put Moore down 3-0 early?  It was a fastball thrown perfectly into Zuumball's mitt ... but down-and-in, right into the "loop zone" for lefties.  Almost the only place that Omar "83 MPH Launch" Narvaez can hurt you.  

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M's 4, White Sox 3 on Saturday

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GOOD NEWS:  the SSI amigos watching the game thought Felix threw the ball well.  He is producing.  In 10 starts this year, he's got 5 clear quality starts and 3 that just missed:  5 IP and 1 ER on Saturday with a 5:0 CTL ... 5 IP and 2 ER on Opening Day with a 6:0 CTL ... 6.1 IP and 4 ER against the Marlins.  He is no longer giving us 8 IP and 1 ER but we are getting to the bullpen in good shape.

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BAD NEWS:  the SSI blogger watching the first two innings thought to himself for the jillionth time, he's got to be VERY careful with that minus fastball.  Or somebody will smack it out of the park with a stick.  And it's tough for an ex-power pitcher to give up the feeling of throwing the ball by people for strike three.  It's like asking The Donald to give up Mick Donald's.

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James on Justin Smoak

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This "Player Handbook" entry by James would have been one of my favorites from his old Handbooks or Abstracts.  It would have been a classic with regard to any player, but in this case it gives closure to a long chapter in Seattle Mariners history.  Bill James Online still only $3 per month, a nominal fee in the literal sense.  

Smoak is batting .290/.360/.560 with an 0.50 EYE and after just 89 games, Smoak's 23 homers are easily his career high.  First James' essay, then a few SSI thoughts as applied to Seattle:

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M's 4, White Sox 2

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TOP HALF

From the MLB.com wrap on the game, here is James Shields regretting the "mistake" that led to Cano's decisive 3-run shot:

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White Sox right-hander James Shields went six innings for the third time in eight starts this season, but couldn't get out of his trouble in the third. After giving up a walk and a single to lead off the inning, Shields left an 85.6-mph cutter over the heart of the plate and Cano homered to give Seattle a 3-1 lead. The Mariners added another run when Shields' fifth-inning wild pitch allowed Jean Segura to score, leaving the veteran right-hander on the hook for four runs.

"Obviously I didn't want to throw the ball down the middle to Cano," Shields said. "I wanted to get it inside, off the plate a bit. If I make my pitches right there, I think it's a whole different ballgame."

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