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Q. Again ... how could he run a 4.45 ERA in the PCL?
A. How could Randy Johnson go 7-9, 4.40 at age 25? With a 104/70 control ratio? Or how could these young lefty flamethrowers have high ERA's?
- Mark Mulder - 9-10, 5.44 as a rookie, 88/69 strikeout to walk (control) ratio in 154 IP
- Jon Lester - 4.76 ERA as rook, 60:43 CTL ... 4.57 ERA, 50:31 CTL the next year
- Gio Gonzalez - 7.68 ERA and 5.75 ERA his first two years
- Clayton Kershaw - 4.26 ERA with a 100/52 CTL
- Sandy Koufax - horrible for 3-5 years
- etc etc etc
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Q. But that's in the bigs. Paxton had a 4.45 ERA in the minors.
A. Any of those lefties could walk people in the minors or majors.
Randy Johnson had a control ratio of 168/129 his last two years in the minors.
Gio Gonzalez had a 4+ ERA in the minors going, and Billy Beane called him up. Mark Mulder also had a 4+ ERA going in the minors when he got called up. That's because Billy Beane knows that a wild lefty might as well learn the league while he's learning his foot plant and release point. When he jells physically, he might as well have the info downloaded!
ERA is not the point on wild young lefties. They walk five guys and hit the showers, or they don't walk guys and they lock you down. Why would you use ERA to measure that? Measure number of good starts against number of bad starts.
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Q. OK, fine. How many good starts and bad starts has Paxton been having.