Sale

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Sez Taro,

Would love to see Capps in the rotation. Even if you shave 3-4 mph off, hes going to be one of the hardest throwers in the game. He could be a better SP prospect than Walker, but hidden due to circumstance and perceptive age arcs. You never know.

Then go out and do your own Fister deal with those excess prospects.

Sez Terry McDermott,

I like the idea of Capps starting, too, but I don't think it's something that is likely to happen. I talked to two people in the org about this - one a player and one who would be heavily involved in the decision - and both said the same thing: right now he can't control his breaking ball consistently enough to start.

Almost half (48%) of his off-speed pitches this year were called balls. Doesn't mean he can't learn to control it. He's just never had the need to throw it much.

If you were to neon-flash those two super-poster light bulbs in alternation, what color would you get?  The one that says "Capps does indeed look like he could be a Chris Sale or Alexi Ogando.  But the M's would laugh at such an idea at this point in Capps' career; it's kind of a naive suggestion."

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Q.  Do you think TJM's sources represent the consensus?

A.  Now that he mentions it, I'm sure this is EXACTLY the way that the dugout looks at Carter Capps, and I'm 100% positive that it would become the #1 factor in any conversion talk.

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Q.  Erasmo had his B game going?  Why do you say?

A.  Dead legs or something; he was yaaaaaannnkkkking his head and lead shoulder around, muscling the fastball and he jerked the fastball way left on at least eight occasions.  It actually cost him velocity.  They didn't have F/X for some reason, but on the pitches he yanked, his velo was down to 92 or so.

This cost him $9,000 worth of command.  He centered so many fastballs, the Blue Jays begged for one on the black.  It was ridick, dude.

He also threw a crazy number of strikes, crazy way too many ... at one point he had 21 strikes and 3 balls, 32 strikes and 6 balls, 44 strikes and 10 balls... look.  Strikes are fine but if you do that, it is precisely as if every pitch is in a 2-0 count.  That's the problem with a 2-0 count, right?  The hitter knows a strike is coming?

Take the above two facts and blend them.  What do you get?  A recipe for nine earnies.

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Q.  Did Erasmo in fact give up 9 earnies?

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=== Mr WBC ===

If it seemed like a grind, that's because it kinda was.  For two basic reasons.  

First, because his fastball was sinking and swerving armside.  If you just joined us, when a RHP throws a tailing fastball, it tails itself right onto the barrel of a good lefty hitter's bat, where it is liable to hurt somebody wearing leather on one hand.  Iwakuma threw 17 "sinkers" that averaged 10 inches' swerve and only 3 inches' "rise" ... although they were located well, they were still crushed for an obscene run value by the Indians' stacked lefty roster.  Not much you can do about that.  On the other hand, he threw 20 "four-seamers" that rose more and swerved less, and he got away with those.  The distinction between "sinker" and "four-seamer" was probably inadvertent on Iwakuma's and Montero's parts.

The second reason:  the ump didn't like Iwakuma-san any more than restless media types do.  Notice a few things about this strike zone chart:

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True, there are 4 pitches just outside that are called strikes.  This is a universal rule in baseball:  RHP vs LHB, there's a baseball width outside.  For any RHP.

But notice also six pitches, directly over home plate, just nicking the knees, that are called balls.  The strike zone is supposed to be slightly oval; if you split the plate and you're one inch low, that's a strike.  Slap me silly.

Notice also several pitches way inside the strike zone, up-and-in to LHB's, called balls.  

Q.  How big is one game with 13 strikeouts?  Objectively, now.

A.  Show me one Anthony Vasquez game with 13 whuffs.  Or one Luke French game.  Never happen.

There's a lot of study and discussion on Bill James Online lately, this very issue:  how much does it mean, one truly awesome performance by a rookie pitcher?  To what extent does it tend to predict that the kid's not lousy-but-lucky?  Answer:  Anthony Vasquezes don't have games with 13 whuffs.  Pretty much they don't.

Like we sez, Iwakuma just set the 1977-2012 Seattle rookie record.  There's a reason no rookie did it. You can't throw 18 balls past (swinging) MLB(TM) hitters as easy as that.

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Q.  Yes, but to what extent will MLB(TM) general managers see it that way.

A.  It definitely sat them up in their seats.  Hisashi Iwakuma is now on everybody's radar.

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Q.  How repeatable was Iwakuma's performance.  You expect a blizzard of Chris Sale outings now?

A.  I'm sure that on Iwakuma's tombstone, 7.30.12, 13 K's will be the epitaph.  He might not have any more 10-strikeout outings this year, or maybe ever.  The hitters' adjustments will be, among other things, to get Iwakuma earlier in the count.  They don't want to see that shu'uto with two strikes.

The shu'uto is of course repeatable.  He's got the gyroball on a game-in, game-out basis.