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Seven of the top 20 free agents this winter are unsigned as we get deeper into spring training. Here's an excellent primer from MLB Trade Rumors, including polls as to which of the top 5 players are most likely to be looking for teams at season opener:
Greg Holland - 32%
Mike Moustakas - 30%
Jake Arrieta - 24%
Lance Lynn - 7%
Alex Cobb - 6%
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We accidentally posted a Miranda / Moore / Gordon piece under the ALL domain. If your bookmark takes you to the baseball.seattlesportsinsider.com domain first thing every day, as it obviously should, you might have missed that one. Just click the ALL button up top to remedy my error for me.
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You know how it is with spring training games. They don't mean nearly as much as we wish they did. But! If Andrew Moore pitches tomorrow, you still want to know whether his outing HELPed him or HURT him.
In that spirit, let's go crib note style, keepin' it loose. Here then, choose ye from among a baker's dozen of talking points.
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Dave Fleming has a super readable post up at BJOL, in front of the paywall I'm pretty sure, that suggests the Angels should release Albert Pujols. In the article, Fleming points out that last season, Pujols had a 78 OPS+ and was therefore the 4th-worst player ever to collect 100 RBI.
In the comments, one of the readers points out that Pujols may be much older than 38. Last year, he had an OBP of .286 and a SLG of .386. Obviously, his "contributions" on base and defensively are less than nothing. Can you allow such a player 550 AB's at first base and DH?
It's always a shame when you have such a majestic player and you have to practically rip the jersey off his back. But it's a good conversation piece: would YOU DFA Albert Pujols before the season started?
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We ain't doin' MUCH here on Feb 24, watching for baseball technique. But when a dubious Mariner makes an appearance, we can at minimum file it as a BUY, HOLD, SELL appearance. Did Marco Gonzales do good? Was it a neutral appearance that changes nothing? Did Andrew Moore perform in a discouraging way? It's worth sorting socks, at the least.
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ARIEL MIRANDA - HOLD
Everybody knows he's got the sharp fastball, and he used it to jam hitters like vintage July 2017 Ariel Miranda.
Secondary stuff? There's a baseball cliche' that says "He flashed a plus curve ball." It's way overused, but what they mean is exactly what Miranda did with his splitter. To the second hitter of the game, think it was the second pitch, he came from 12 feet overhand and the bottom fell out of it. Garbage swing. The pitch looked like Chuck Finley's forkball, if you remember that.
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Casey Stengel, running the 1950's Yankee juggernaut, used to cornpone to the press "It's a big game. I gotta have m'man behind the plate." Of course Yogi Berra along with Johnny Bench and, later, a handful of others (Fisk, IRod, Carter, Piazza, maybe Torre) was one of the 60-WAR catchers who played for dynasties. I've often wondered what the correlation would be, if you could measure it properly: what does a Johnny Bench do for a talented team.
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Malcontent threw a couple of jumbo-sized, garden-fresh potatoes in the pot by noticing Gordon's power add last September. He sez,
Hey Doc! Did you notice Dee changed his batting stance in September? The results seem to be much better contact(he ran an .800 OPS without walking). I'd love to get your thoughts on whether it's a long term improvement that might presage a new offensive level.
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NOISE
Everything from March is "noise," distracting at best and misleading at worst. Well, at times it can be helpful; if a player's component skill set is completely different, maybe. Or a pitcher adds a pitch. Or an injured guy is jumping up and down like a jumping bean. Or, specifically, if Marc-O Gonzales' changeup is clocking 79 MPH instead of 85 MPH.
Henceforth Dr. D offers his tongue-in-cheek reaction to the noise we've gotten the last coupla days.
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FELIX
Matty sez,
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PREREQ 101
There are many, many, MANY baseball players who can play very, VERY well for 300 AB's, Capt. Lassard. Jarrod Dyson is one of those guys who is a role player who pro-rates to 3.0 WAR. Pro-rate@ But many is the role players cannot handle the heat and the burden of the scout/video day, or at least who can't stay healthy over the course of 162 full games. Hence the fact that we bloggers were guessing at 2/$21M for Dyson in Seattle, while GM's smiled and sobered us to the reality of his 2/$7.5M in Arizona.
Dyson did look like 3.0 WAR full season when he was in KC, and a-l-l of us bought into the dreamy aspirations of having a Loftonesque bullet train out there in CF for us, but the Royals knew better. Happily, they lightfingered our back pockets for 4 years' worth of Nate Karns - they'll underpay him for 2017, 2018, 2019 and 2020 while Dyson's 2.1 WAR has arrived, checked in, and checked back out.
Karns had an off year last year, meaning his ERA+ was merely 108 and his K's merely 10.1. Not that the M's couldn't use a 108 pitcher, but KKKarns is going to get better from there. Your big clue is 10 strikeouts per game, just to letcha know.
Prereq 101: don't assume too much about taking a good 240-330 AB's and doubling them at your leisure.
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Erasmo Martinez has been shut down for two weeks with a lat strain. As Matt reminds us, this can be worse than advertised, maybe much worse. As the mainframe reminds us, this is not an explosion of his rotator cuff. "Things happen" sez Scott Servais. So, Dr. D's main interpretation here is that Marc-O will get a Willy Wonka Golden Ticket and will have to toss it overboard to miss the rotation.
Ariel Miranda has real good life on his LH fastball and deception on his armside changeup (which I think they call a "slider" for some reason). Here's a YouTube on which Miranda blows away many, many, MANY enemy hitters.
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Isabelle Minasian writes a sparkling piece on Mike Ford that starts wittily, gets witty in the middle, and finishes wittily as it fades to black. Don't be afraid to give it a look.
Isabelle characterizes Ford as a "centaur," a baseball prospect constructed with a part from this position over here and that one over there, and she gingerly comps him to John Olerud. Meaning:
1) Inflexible first baseman
2) Very little power for a 1B
3) BB's and K's that "make you think the Fangraphs columns are make you playing tricks on your eyes" (Heh!)
