.
Erasmo Martinez has been shut down for two weeks with a lat strain. As Matt reminds us, this can be worse than advertised, maybe much worse. As the mainframe reminds us, this is not an explosion of his rotator cuff. "Things happen" sez Scott Servais. So, Dr. D's main interpretation here is that Marc-O will get a Willy Wonka Golden Ticket and will have to toss it overboard to miss the rotation.
Ariel Miranda has real good life on his LH fastball and deception on his armside changeup (which I think they call a "slider" for some reason). Here's a YouTube on which Miranda blows away many, many, MANY enemy hitters.
As Dipoto has said, the M's will be game-planning their BOR for 15- outs. Miranda's problem, to date, has been his class-A caliber gloveslide slider (which they call a changeup for some reason). Miranda's CTL was 3.1 on pitches 51-75 last year, but it fell off to 1.6 on pitches 75+. Until he gets his 3rd pitch together, and until Marc-O gets about -4 MPH off his changeup, they're both in need of quick hooks. So the news here is irritating, but not Paxton-to-the-DL lame.
Okay, maybe that's not a GOOD thing as such. But y'know. We've got 8, 9 draws at the rotation deck. Moving Erasmo to April gives us a chance to build on a talented Miranda and on a St. Louis Cardinal. We'll stay cool and reach for another lemynade.
.....
Yes, we know it would nice if Dipoto would buy a pitcher. Typing that in all caps here isn't going to change anything there.
.....
John McGrath breaks code by telling us schlubs that King Felix is -- and will be -- accustomed to being treated as a Hall of Famer, whether or not he pitches like one. Fine, give him Opening Day if that's the way he's going to be. And hope that his light IP in 2017 bounce him into a crisper fastball for 2018.
What's good about a sneer on Felix' lip? Check him in three weeks.
.....
Jerry Dipoto has been talking about David Phelps ike he's the very key to the bullpen. Say what? Of course you know about these guys:
Diaz - CL
Nicasio - SU/CL
Vincent - SU
Pazos - nuclear, wild LH SU
Zip - groundball LH SU
But Phelps, when he's throwing right, has an eye-blink 96 fastball and an absolute parachute yellow hammer. Here's Exhibit A.
(That leaves Zych as #7 and a gaggle of competition for #8.)
....
With Heredia injured, the Ichiro option becomes intriguing to at least one M's fan, because you're not even going to recognize the 40-man roster names that come after that. The question is whether you could get Ichiro to accept a graceful exit once Heredia was ready to go again?
....
Jeff Sullivan has an entertaining read on teams that were projected to win 100 games (that's 95 in STEAMER-speak). You remember the '15 Nationals, with Scherzer-Gio-Strasburg-Fister-Zimmermann, projected before the season to +14 games better than the #2 NL East team. They finished 83-79.
There are tons and tons of such examples, and they're recent. The 2005 Dodgers were projected to 92 wins, and got 71. Both 2008 New York teams were projected -- that's STEAMER-projected -- to win 95 games, but both missed the playoffs entirely.
Moral of the story? You're an SSI Denizen. You don't need it drawn for yer.
BABVA,
Dr D
and I'll take it. I'd rather be the 2015 Nationals and have those projections. It's not like it's a curse to have really good players.
When I play simulations, I gear up the best roster I can and then take my chances. I don't hope that the Astros have a bad year. I hope my squad has a good year - especially if they're projected to. So I want the projections.
Buy me a pitcher.
This "hey...one out of every ten great teams hits their 10th percentile projection" stuff is just...I'm over it.
I no longer care to hope for them to have a bad year while we have a good year. This front office gives precisely zero true effort, so why should I meet them half way?
And none of them are the stupid and unworkable pitch clock idea.
They're shortening commercials (like I've said they should do for years), limiting mound conferences, and making it so big league teams can have direct communication with the replay room so the manager doesn't have to tell the team to stall for a whole minute while the replay intern looks at the play in question then, sends a messenger out the tunnel to relay the decision as to whether to challenge...it'll just be the manager calling the replay room, the replay guy saying yes or no within seconds, and the manager deciding whether to challenge with a signal to the ump. MUCH better.
THOSE are the sorts of rational changes you can make to improve pace of play that don't stop teams and players from doing everything they can to maximize their performance.
How utterly RATIONAL! Test and then implement these sane pace of play rules and see where it gets you before even considering a bloomin' pitch clock. That sort of thing is so foreign to the sport of baseball. Kudos to the powers that be. Can't say that sort of thing often these days.
Did they, once again, attempt to require MLB hitters to stay in the batter's box? They should.....and enforce it.
Said they should ban Velcro on batting gloves. No need to adjust them after every pitch, nobody tunes in to watch you dress yourself, undress, dress...ad infinitum
Honestly, i don't see the value there. But the JD Martinez deal looks an awful lot like a pillow contract to me. On the face of it, it's 5 years at $22mil AAV, but it's really just a two year deal deal at $25mil/year with yet ANOTHER opt-out after the third season. He goes Nelson Cruz in Boston and he's renegotiating after the first two years. Bad deal for the BoSox in my opinion, but hey, maybe they're hoping to catch lightning in a bottle?
You know who was a bargain, though? Jarrod Dyson, at $3.5mil/year x 2 years plus a $500k signing bonus (or some such). What team wouldn't love to have that guy as a 4th OF at that price? Now, if AZ was promising him his much-valued starting job, that changes things quite a bit. But if he ends up part-timing for them...gonna say letting him slip away at that price was a mistake, even though I LOVE-LOVE-LOVE the Gordon acquisition.
Would be excellent in a 250-400 PA role. The current state of the HR game makes me question going for steals right now. Imagining the speed game with him batting 9th or on the bench and Dee plus Segura at the top is still fun. 120+ steals between 3 players on one team in today's game?
I guess I'd still prefer saving money for the obvious need in the rotation. Anybody at all willing to bet Dipoto doesn't trade for a starter mid season to fill a hole in the rotation? It just seems so inevitable...
I think if Martinez goes Nelson Cruz in Boston for 2 years it was $50 million well spent. Ortiz hangover cure and all.
for Boston. But if he hits LOW...Boston gets all the risk with (little or) no reward.
I don't mind the last couple years of contracts being Team and/or Player options. But giving players outs a couple years into MAJOR financial commitments, without any reciprocity for the teams, is pretty messed up. It should be like the earlier mutual options: if player declines, team gets the option to retain at $X.xx increase in the next year's salary. If team declines, player gets to either go to FA or take a reduced salary. But this one-sided opt-out business is going to be catastrophic for some teams in the not-too-distant future.
I just hope my favorite club isn't one of them.
I think it is now firmly established that the Mariners will never succeed.
I'm not too tore up about Erasmo going down. Its probably better to see Marco develop anyway. BUT THE MARINERS NEED TO BUY A PITCHER!
Re: Kyle Lewis, its hard to see him go down again. The knee is probably more repairable than a labrum. Mike Saunders is still kicking around and he has a knee. So is Albert Pujols.
For all the talk that the rotation this year which everyone admits should be better than '17 still can't be carried by the M's offense, there's a stat I ran across that argues against it. Last year they had a 70-26 record when scoring four runs or more. That amid having only 1 of the projected starting pitchers more often than they had 3 or 4 and with Smyly out they never had 5. And none of the 5 this year should be Gallardo bad, without getting yanked much sooner. I highly doubt the worst case scenario for Felix even slips him that far.
It suggests to me that with a solid bullpen and the slight expected offensive improvements this offense could carry a sub-par rotation.
And I don't think it'll be slightly.
More Zunino and less horribly back-up catchers, a full year of Haniger (please, God? PLEASE???) making his first all-star team and generally lopping off pitchers' heads, Gordon a much more valuable offensive player than Dyson, Fewer OF ABs going to weak alternatives like Leonys Martin, a full (again...PLEASE?????) season from Segura...the team has the potential to score 850 runs as I thought they did last year, maybe more.
I think you're underestimating the Gallardo risk, though. I think Marco Gonzalez and Andrew could easily (and I do mean easily...I'd even call it likely) combine for Gallardo's numbers, even if they're in slightly fewer combined innings. If Erasmo can't get into games soon enough, we're stuck with both of those guys or another, worse alternative. And Felix could easily be a 4.80 ERA groveller.
The bullpen should, in theory, be better this year than last, but I've been wrong about the strength of this team's bullpen in six consecutive seasons. It's completely useless to try to project non-ace relievers.
But without both the quantity of injuries (shouldn't even be close) and the financial commitments to the guys in question, outside of Felix, the Hook should always come much quicker. There's MiL options on most of these guys as well.
5.72 ERA in 130.2 IP. Not gonna happen. I'd bet on that, no 2 Mariner starters combining for that much garbage. Miranda was 5.12 in 160 innings and projections all have him mid-4's for this year. We'll see, but the rotation should be better than last year any way you cut it.
It's all about watching the pitching this spring for me. Starters and relievers. I am still hoping that a couple guys have made adjustments and the Rotation is more middle of the pack. I also hope to see more of Art Warren, another mid-high 90s arm with good control who can get 4+ outs would make for even less innings by anyone who's not being effective. That's another factor in it all is a deeper bullpen helping shorten the Hook.
Re: Miranda, Moore, and Gonzalez, they all currently have utterly fatal flaws that lead to astronomical home run rates and the fix for each of them is non-trivial.
Moore needs to learn how to throw a sinking change-up and sharpen his breaking ball, or he's never going to be anything at all but garbage. Gonzalez needs to get back his change-up post-injury and throw a sharper slider without losing command or he, too, will fail. And Miranda needs to develop an offspeed pitch...ANY pitch will do...that breaks down and/or in on righties. Right now, all of his pitches have rise and armside run. That's a recipe for disaster.
None of those are the sorts of changes you should reasonably EXPECT to see, though all of them are possible. And behind those three is a hopeless wasteland of journeymen with zero upside and desperation plays.
As for the quicker hook...if they are all in need of quick hooks, the bullpen will be out of gas by July. We just don't have 120 IP rubber armed relievers with the possible except of Phelps (which is why the Mariners think he's the key to their success).
72.1 innings last year in his fist year exclusively in relief.
Also Art Warren's first year in transitioning was 64.2 IP last year. The same as Vincent in a 22 game shorter season, only less than Diaz on the M's. Diaz and 4 of the 17 starters that trotted out. 76 relief innings including AFL, closing out 35 of his 52 games. The AFL was 11.1 IP, closing out 8 games in 9 appearances (more than an IP per appearance as the championship teams closer) with 4 BB, 5 H and 12 K. 0.00 ERA. His almost identical K/9 of 9.3 and BB/9 of 3.5 in the regular session led to a 3.00 ERA. His 64.2 IP were in only 43 games. Fairly comparable to Pagans 2015, but Pagan had been a reliever all along.
Can we get Pagan back, btw?
If we're going to make the wolf pack work, we need two or three guys who can soak 2-3 IP frequently.
Is just the rubber arm part of the equation. Warren fits more on multiple innings and Pagan was the best on the squad last year in the same mold, which is why I mentioned him. Neither are really going to go 3 innings though. If we have anyone for that truly, it is one of the starters that just hadn't shown that relief development yet.
Where's Lincecum going anyway? Reportedly hitting 93MPH last week just south of here. Huskies are close to being wolves. Ok, not the same but him and Kuma could be good fits for that style of penner.
...and were one of several clubs to walk away reasonably impressed.
He would be the kind of guy Dipoto would snag if he were willing to sign a split contract so he could be sent down and retained if needed but probably not if he gets a fully MLB offer from anyone else. The Rangers are said to be particularly interested.
I would love to see Kuma groomed for that sort of role as he rehabs. His arm might bounce back better if he throws fewer innings, but he could fill the long-man role.
Nicasio takes the heat off of Nick Vincent...Vincent is the guy the Mariners ride like a rented mule every year and it causes him to suffer periods of dead arm ineffectiveness. Nicasio can pitch more often than Vincent and is the set-up man as a result with Pazos the lefty set-up guy, Diaz to close, Vincent for middle inning appearances, Phelps as a swingman for high leverage innings whenever they occur, and Zych and Zip filling out the pen. Warren probably won't be with the big league club until later in the year.
As Rick Rizzs would say, "you're due".
the underrated. Projected for 2.6 WAR which is about 45th among starters. If you figure 30 teams have an ace and 30 teams have a #2, he's projected to be middle of the pack of those #2's. Everyone wants to say he's a 4 but that's not what the numbers say. His 3.1 WAR last year was 33rd among SP, which would make him among the best #2's on average, though I understand there are several teams that don't have an ace as good as Leake and he was probably closer to the median of what team's actually had at #2 because of the disparity in rotation quality among different teams.
Regardless, a 12 Win rotation would be about average and Paxton and Leake could combine for over 2/3 of that. Fangraphs projects an 11.6 WAR rotation split between 8 pitchers and nobody projects Paxton to do what we know Paxton could do. 11.6 WAR is their 18th highest projection. In the AL, according to most Mariner fans. In the majors, in actuality.
M's had 6.2 WAR from starters last year. As bad as that was, the Angels 5.5, Orioles 5.5, Marlins 3.9, Reds 3.8 and White Sox 2.0 were worse.
Last year, Paxton was number one for Mariner rotation WAR with just over three and number two was Leake in just s a handf of starts and Ramirez in just a handful more. That's...sad.
If Paxton stays healthy all year, that's gonna help a LOT. Still the back of our rotation compares to the worst in the game one once get past our top three (two if Felix bombs). It may not be reasonable to project sudden improvement from Miranda, Moore, and Gonzalez...but it's also not reasonable to assume the same level of injury disaster. I'm not saying the rotation will be as bad as last year...just that it seems like the kind of liability that prevents teams from gaining confidence and going on winning streaks.
...well, I want to join you and have hope, so I'll just call attention to the comments from Felix after his last bullpen session in which he raved about his mechanics being free and easy for the first time in a while and the coaches all liked what they saw.
Refreshed Felix giving us an ERA in the threes would really REALLY help.
It could give them an above average rotation to go with above average offense, defense and bullpen. Divish posted a video of his second bullpen
https://twitter.com/RyanDivish/status/966030177430941696?s=20
And 2x 2017 Championship Closer Art Warren's first
https://twitter.com/RyanDivish/status/964589563992686592?s=20
Nicasio
https://twitter.com/RyanDivish/status/965674993685184512?s=20
Diaz
https://twitter.com/RyanDivish/status/965674532932501504?s=20
Phelps
https://twitter.com/RyanDivish/status/964950441904623616?s=20
Leake
https://twitter.com/SeaTimesFotoKen/status/965318160566992896?s=20
Paxton
https://twitter.com/RyanDivish/status/965309351949840384?s=20
Paxton
https://twitter.com/RyanDivish/status/965308902425346048?s=20
Paxton
https://twitter.com/RyanDivish/status/965310000733216769?s=20
Phelps, Zych and Vincent
https://twitter.com/RyanDivish/status/964948117085765633?s=20
I'd say Divish is worth a follow...