Los Angeles

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Poor coaching calls

We all saw the devastating play during the Redskins-Seahawks game in early January 2013. It was the 4th quarter and a low snap left Robert Griffin III scrambling to recover a lost ball. As the star rookie quarterback attempted to pivot, his knee had a mind of its own and rotated the opposite direction of its regular mobility. RG3 hit the ground, the Seahawks recovered the ball, and the end of the rookie’s star-studded season came to a close.

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Exploring overseas culture locally

It used to be that if you wanted to experience the culture of another country, you’d have to jump on a boat, plane or some other sort of reliable transportation and make your way to that country to see it with your own eyes.  Eventually, this evolved so that movies and television conveyed information to people in the comfort of their own homes.  

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Bill James on the Red Sox / Dodgers Trade

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We're constantly hounding you guys to add classical education to your resumes :- ) but this one was unreal.  James, as a member of the Boston front office, participated as part of the committee in constructing the biggest ($$-wise) transaction in baseball history.  Don't underestimate James' role in the Boston front office.  He's not the GM, but he's at the Big Table as org consensus is built.

One of his readers, preposterously, asked him to remark on the deal and, even more preposterously, he replied.

My guess, based on past experience, is that reading the popular reaction to the deal and viewing it as obvious nonsense, he just couldn't quite contain himself.

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Are you allowed to comment on THE trade?
Asked by: 3for3
Answered: 8/27/2012
Well. . . "allowed".   Nobody tells me I can't comment on the trade, but as a practical matter I'm pretty limited in this case.    I'll say two things:
 
1)  I am amazed at the extent to which large numbers of people who have commented on the trade are 20 feet off base and leaning the wrong way, and
 
2)  What I would say to them is, "You're over-thinking it."   It's not that hard.

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Receiving these two comments are along the lines of receiving two comments from Richard Nixon about the Watergate scandal, or receiving two things from President Obama about what's in Area 51.  Immediately you would see dozens, maybe hundreds, of books developed around this information...

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I/O Statement 2):  It's pretty clear, we think, what James means here.  Boston had to clean house, the Dodgers wanted a groundswell up into a mega TV contract, and each franchise represented 50% of the only game in town.  I'm guessing that you don't argue much with your local power company.  You buy electricity or you don't.

Dodgers Absorb the Red Sox

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In a recent "Dynasties" article at BJOL, James points out that the 1900-1912 Pirates became a dynasty by absorbing a second team:

7.  The Pittsburgh Pirates, 1900-1912

19 Points, Tied on our List as the 14th-15th greatest team of all time

Key Figures:  Honus Wagner, Fred Clarke, Deacon Phillippe and Sam Leever.

The "Pirates", as I suspect most of you know, became the Pirates by stealing the best players from the Louisville team.    In 1898 Pittsburgh went 72-76, Louisville 70-81; in 1899 Pittsburgh went 76-73; Louisville 75-77.    Neither team was great, but they had about a half a team each.   Pittsburgh had Ginger Beaumont, Jimmy Williams, Jesse Tannehill, Sam Leever and Jack Chesbro; Louisville had Honus Wagner, Fred Clarke, Chief Zimmer, Deacon Phillippe and Rube Waddell.   The two teams had several investors in common, people who owned parts of both teams.    After the 1899 season the Louisville team was folded, and the two teams merged into one.   Pittsburgh "pirated" the Louisville roster, taking three Hall of Famers.   

The combined team went 79-60 in 1900, second place, but earned a dynasty point because the National League was still using a post-season series to decide its championship, and the Pirates were one of the two teams.    The Pittsburgh/Louisville combo team won the National League in 1901 (90-49), 1902 (103-36) and 1903 (91-49), and continued to play brilliant baseball for nine years after that, winning the World Championship in 1909. 

As saberdweebs, we focus on the idea that Beckett, Crawford and AGone are collectively being paid too much.  We haven't focused on the possibility that maybe these AL celebrities will step down to a AAA league ;- ) and demolish it.  ... we're tongue in cheek about the Dodger dynasty, LrKrBoi29, but this on-loading of three stars at once is a subtext to be aware of.

MLB Trade Rumors has a bullet list of talking points that is high-quality even by their standards.  SSI's crunch of these talking points:

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=== Don't Leave Anything On the Field (in Boston) ... or On the Conference Table, Dept. ===

This morning, the Red Sox and Dodgers completed a nine-player blockbuster sending Josh BeckettAdrian GonzalezCarl Crawford, and Nick Punto to Los Angeles for James LoneyAllen WebsterIvan De JesusJerry Sands, and Rubby De La Rosa.  For more on the quartet of prospects the Red Sox received, check out Mike Axisa's rundown from earlier today.  Here's a look at some of the reaction to today's mega-deal..

  • Buster Olney of ESPN.com (Insider sub. req'd) looks at the winners and losers of the deal.  The Dodgers of 2012 are unsurprisingly among the winners while the Dodgers of 2017, Olney writes, appear to be losers in the trade.  Olney also notes that this is the first time in MLB history in which two players with $100MM remaining on their contracts were involved in a trade.

 

First time in which two players with $100M remaining were both in a deal ... and both going one way!  With another pricey player.  Wow.  No precedents on this one.

The takeaway for M's fans:  the value of a playoff run, and the value of a TV deal, can dwarf $/WAR considerations.  The M's are coming up on their own TV deal.  Let's hope that the conservative M's ownership committee can find the guts that everybody else does, to push into the pot in order to reap the investment benefits.

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Rangers: What Part of NO Don't You Understand, Scott

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In Mariner Analyst's "So You're Telling Me There's a Chance .... !" department, the East Coast internet chooses to interpret even this optimistically:

Bob Simpson, who along with Ray Davis is a Rangers principal owner and co-chairman of the board, said that the Rangers are operating at a deficit and will until the new TV contract starts in 2015 .... Fielder is not a viable option unless his price goes down and he would accept a backloaded deal.

"If they come around to something we can do, we'll take a look at it," Simpson said.

In one-syllable words, so we can understand it?  "NO, SCOTT.  WE'RE NOT GIVING YOU 7 YEARS AND $160M.  If you want a firm 5-year offer, let us know and we'll see what ownership wants to do."

Which is what every ML franchise, other than the Mariners, has evidently told Boras.  When the Nationals say "unless something changes," that doesn't mean "Unless we can bridge the gap between $160M and $180M."  It means "unless he wants to sign on our terms.  Unless he'll take five years, 6th year vested.  He won't, so we're out."

Every thing that every franchise, other than the Mariners, has ever said has amounted to the same thing.  Teixeira money, 8/180, just forget it.  We're not even going to consider it.  If you want to talk 5/120, give us a call.  We've heard the same blinkin' thing, over and over, for a month.

HQ 2012: Pineda Two Thumbs Wayyy Up

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Got my prrrrecious in the mail today.  First up:  find those Mariner players that HQ likes more than Seattle fans do.

Highest on the list of HQ raves:  Michael Pineda.  Well, it woulda been pretty much impossible for HQ to wax more ecstatic than SSI, probably.  But we can tell ya this:  HQ likes Pineda a whale of a lot more than the "Shed Pineda Before It's Too Late" bloggers do.

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HQ gives Pineda as the #9 roto SP draftee in 2012, American League, giving the Mariners by far the best 1-2 starting pitcher combo outside of Los Angeles.

They run a blizzard of component stats, with the key "BPX" (peripherals grade indexed to 100) being 150.  Their verbal comment:

"What 2nd-half slump?  ERA spike came not from 'fatigue,' but from an unlikely-to-repeat 58% strand rate.

"In fact, skills were even better in the 2nd half -- BPV, xERA tell the real story.

"And he did it all at age 22, in his first big league season.  With health, this is a Cy Young winner in the making.

"For now, IP limits impose a ceiling on his (roto) value."

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=== Better In the 2nd Half? ===

I remember Pineda's second half as being one in which his K's exceeded his IP's ... in one which his velocity ran at 89-90 mph in the first inning or two of some games ... and one in which a lot of base hits knocked in a lot of runners ... and one in which SSI carried on the fight against the Michael Pineda naysayers.

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