Madison

Seahawks - Redskins GameDay

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... well, okay, "Talking Points," not GameDay, probably. I been reading too many traffic-seducing Euro soccer headlines. Guess I shoulda went with "Is Walter Jones Preparing to Play This Sunday?!", followed by an article mentioning that he's not.

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=== Point ===

Dr. D will be watching the Vikings-Packers playoff game with more interest than almost any NFL game this year, that didn't involve the Seahawks.

Not only is this the most traditional rivalry left standing in 2012, but ... Minny has a decent chance of beating the Packers, with Adrian Peterson running the ball in cold weather, and if so, they have a good chance of beating the overrated Falcons.

And if that occurs, the NFC championship game, Minnesota-Seattle at CLink, would be a Seahawks bye into the Super Bowl. Having a bye during the NFC championship game would be ... valuable.

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=== CounterPoint ===

SSI fears for the officiating this Sunday. Not everybody realizes that the Redskins are one of the most valuable sports franchises on the globe, sometimes THE most valuable. Over the past decade the race has been between Manchester United, the Yankees, the Redskins, and a couple of other teams.

The furore over the Redskins' glamor (?) season has been preposterous. And when the New York Knicks are making a lunge for a championship, the refereeing they get in Madison Square Garden makes the games there unwatchable.

Complicating this, the NFL is going to be royally ticked off about Richard Sherman's In-Yo-Face to their drug testing. ... we read that the 2005 Super Bowl was fixed, which it was in my humble opinion, precisely because the NFL was annoyed at Mike Holmgren breaking code and mouthing off about things he shouldn't have. Dr. D nevvvvvverrrrr underestimates the seaminess of NFL back-stage dealing.

Jeremy Bonderman: Whitherto?

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Q. How likely, do you suppose, is Bonderman to be throwing the ball well in March?

A. I'd be very surprised if he weren't.

There's nothing wrong with bringing in a Kevin Millwood, see what he's got in the tank - if he's been garaged the last year or two, he's just as liable to come back with some octane in the tank.

Note carefully that Capt. Jack is tabbing old workhorses who have been in dry dock for a while. Other GM's might think "rusty," or might have simply lost interest. Capt Jack seems to be thinking, "whey-protein recovery drink," and you might apply this to Hisashi Iwakuma to some extent. Who knows - maybe Iwakuma's half-season off in Seattle was key?

SSI is blinkin' lovin' it. Maybe every spring you ought to bring in one ex-star who has had two years off.

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Back-to-school date ideas

While back to school shopping deals are all the rage right now for kids and families, singles and couples can use this opportunity to have some fun together, too. From haircuts to sales, clothing deals to college furniture, plenty of things are on sale that you can use in your own lives—and maybe even some date ideas.

Speaking of which, here are a few great date ideas inspired by the back to school season…

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Cleveland 9 ...

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=== Best Thing About This Conversation ===

Is that you only have to have it once. James Madison to King George, A.D. 1776.

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The M's chances to win, as Millwood took the mound for the top of the 5th, were 98.7%. Eleven batters later, the chances were 50-50 on the spreadsheet, and 20-80 in real life.

I felt bad for Millwood; if Ryan turns that DP then we are just flat --- > not talking about any of this. How many times has Jason Vargas had a DP turned behind him [but in the Phantom Alternate Universe his SS botched it and he went on to give up 4, 5, 7 runs] but we never saw any other variation and so never gave it a moment's worry?

Also, Millwood struck out Kipnis on a called strike three, that the ump blew, with the odds still at 95%. Kipnis went on to swat an OOZ pitch into LF for a single.

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That said, Millwood gave up like 7 crushed balls in play that inning, and threw a piddling two swinging strikes all game. The the story of the game for me is that --- > some guys are here as bridge players. Nobody ever asked Millwood to justify a two-year, $16M contract.

Millwood had terrible, terrible location all night, and it caught up to him. In this case, it is as simple as that. Millwood's location.

Millwood vs Masterson ... Pre-Game

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=== Future's So Bright We Gotta Wear Shades, Dept. ===

M's right now are tied for the wild card. :- )

There's a thought floating that the 5 wins against the A's don't count. You think they'd have counted if the Mariners lost them? Suppose the M's were 3-and-8 right now. Would that be taken as indicative of anything? So why doesn't a strong 6-5 record indicate anything?

No, it says here that the Mariners have played mondo tough the first 11 games. In 9 of those 11 games, they've faced top-of-the-rotation starting pitchers. (Colon is real strong in the first half, and Colby Lewis was on fire.) If anybody had offered me 6-and-5 right now, I'd a said "in a heartbeat."

That said, the Cleveland Indians are an average-solid team, in a neutral home park*, and we face an average-solid three RH starting pitchers, taking these three as a group. The Indians have won 20 of their last 28 at Safeco. Check the bases gained and bases lost after the series is over, and it will have been a good test. I expect the M's to show that they are at least average-solid themselves.

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=== Justin Masterson, Exec Sum ===

He's been underrated. He's an extreme groundballer who still racks up 7 strikeouts a game. Would you want one'a those for the Mariners? Back in 2010, for example, his Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) was #18 in the American League, and in 2009 it was about the same. His ERA's were higher than that, camouflaging his ability.

Bad Date Movies

Heading out to the video store for tonight’s big date? That’s cool. It might even be fun; don’t forget the popcorn. And for god’s sake, don’t forget to double check what you’re renting. Though many obvious choices might seem like great date movies, they might not be as perfect as they appear at first sight. Can you still dig these films? Absolutely. You might just want to pick something else for a date you’re still getting to know. If you want another date, don’t rent one of these movies, for example…

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Seedlings to Stars - Hultzen #46

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Unless S2S is leaving Paxton, Taijuan, or Franklin out of their top 100, then they peg the M's as having 6 of the game's top 100. This week they covered Hultzen at #46; earlier they reviewed Vinnie Catricala at #59 and Jose Campos at #82.

Baseball Prospectus had been not a little amazed, either. They listed the M's top U-25 talents like this

1	Felix
2	xxx
3	xxx
4	[5-star prospect]
5	[5-star prospect]
6	xxx
7	xxx
8	Nick Franklin, 4-star
9	Mike Carp
10	Justin Smoak (!)

And remarked, "if a team can put three big-leaguers in front of its 5-star prospects, that's an impressive list."

... pesky rodent Angels = 0

=== Jason Vargas Kicks Booty. Not Wednesday. In General. ===

Finally. At long last. After sixty sap-suckin' starts. Sixty of 'em!

... I got so tired of watching Vargas pitch like Adam Sandler in one of Sandler's infantile self-indulgent "watch the schmuck win the Masters" movies. I finally decided that it was going to be "understand Jason Vargas or commit hari-kari by Happy Madison immersion."

Opening Day is Today! (for a probable future Mariner -- we just don't know who)

Meaningful baseball starts now!

At noon Pacific time, baseball season starts for the UCLA Bruins vs. San Francisco, and their Opening Day starter is the big righthander Gerrit Cole. No TV, but it appears that free live audio is available from a link at their website.

A bit later, at 4:30 Pacific (6:30 Central), TCU opens against Kansas, and their Opening Day starter is the wiry lefty Matt Purke. That game is live on The Mtn. TV network, and apparently will be streaming live at www.gofrogs.com.

Why care about Cole and Purke? Because after Rice slugger Anthony Rendon, they are considered (going into the season) as the next-best talents in the 2011 draft. So there's a very good chance one of them will come to Seattle with the No. 2 pick.

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